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Jags take punter in 3rd, swear they "only had a couple of drinks"

Discussion in 'Football: NFL, College, High School' started by emjohn, Apr 28, 2012.

  1. Ricksmith

    Ricksmith Contributing Member

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    Lol @ this comment from the last link

     
  2. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    60% of all picks will suck anyways so it really isn't a big deal.
     
  3. Fyreball

    Fyreball Contributing Member

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    In that case, they should have just taken him in the first round then. Seriously, taking him in the 3rd is one of the most moronic things I've ever seen in the draft.....
     
  4. CCorn

    CCorn Member

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    Must be one legit punter.
     
  5. Ottomaton

    Ottomaton Contributing Member
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    When the Raiders took Sebastian Janikowski in the first, they were torn a new one. Nobody batted an eye when guys like Rashard Anderson, Sylvester Morris, and Stockar McDougle were taken right afterwards.

    In retrospect, the Al Davis came out of that pretty well.

    If he turns out to be Shane Lechler 2.0, it is easily a good value. The effect that a top notch punter has on field position easily outweighs the effect of some backup developmental special-teamer who potentially never gets a single NFL start. Here is round three from that 2000 draft when the Raiders took Janikowski in the first. How many of those guys would you lose sleep about missing out on? Can't stand the thought of passing up Giovanni Carmazzi? Certainly a couple, but the hit rate is sufficiently low that you aren't giving up on a sure thing.

    People used to freak out about taking a safety in the 1st. Now they are regularly going in the top 10.
     
  6. moestavern19

    moestavern19 Member

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    Jano has a leg like nobody else, but Lechler proved to be almost a first round grade Punter. One of the few Aggies I'm down with. Al was never afraid to go get a guy he felt would help the team, regardless of his position, social quirks or race.
     
  7. Ziggy

    Ziggy QUEEN ANON

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    Unless they have elite coverage skills teams probably shouldn't value a safety in the first round to be honest. The big hitters are never worth it.
     
  8. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    Janikowski in the 1st was stupid.

    You're right if he becomes the best punter for the next decade, but what if he doesn't?

    I will say people way overvalue 3rd round picks. There is a huge drop off from round 2 to round 3, but still have the chance to hit on some of those.
     
  9. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    Maybe, the Jags are expecting to set the league for the number punts in season, for the immediate future. The Jag needed a punter that was young and that could take that abuse.
     
  10. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    By that logic, they are just trying to screw themselves out of the #1 pick by trying to win a couple of extra games. They should suck for Luck...

    Oh, too late.
     
  11. Hammer755

    Hammer755 Contributing Member

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    To take a punter in the third round is not a ludicrous concept (dubious maybe, but not ludicrous). For a team that is on the cusp of contention or one that is trying to fill holes around the edges of a championship contender, it may make sense. But for a team with as many deficiencies as Jacksonville has, it makes little sense to take a punter that early.
     
  12. da_juice

    da_juice Member

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    A 3rd string running back or receiver is more valuable than the best punter. Most of the time, punters are punting the ball out of bounds anyway. Unless the kid can place the ball out of bounds on like the 1 anytime, from anywhere, you don't draft him, let alone in the 3rd round.
     
  13. Major

    Major Member

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    If you can net 5 more yards per punt than the average, a great punter is worth about 400-500 yards of field position over the course of a season. That's a lot more than a 3rd string running back will get you. Even if your RB got 500 yards, that's not a net increase - had that player not existed, someone else would have carried it and gotten some number of yards as well. 500 net yards is a huge increase - most than most 2nd string and some 1st string players would get you. And if you're punting people inside the 10, you also change their gameplanning and force them to go more conservative, etc.

    A great punter can be a huge asset. The reason it's a silly decision wasn't really that a great punter isn't worth a 3rd round pick in terms of value to the team - it's that presumably, they could have gotten him just as easily in the 4th (or by trading down and picking up an extra pick somewhere).
     
  14. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Those 500 yards can't just be replaced by anyone. Sometimes 3rd stringers are forced to play due to injury. 3rd String RBs can get 1st downs. 1st downs can become TDs and yardage for other players. Those 5 yards for a punter come away from goal line and have much less value than say a 1 yard TD, a 2 yd 1st down, or blitz pickup on other side of 50.

    And sometimes, 3rd string RBs become 1st or second string RBs. Recent 3rd string RBs for the Texans include Foster and Tate.
     
  15. moestavern19

    moestavern19 Member

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    Field position and being able to neutralize a return are key elements in winning the field position battle. Superior special teams play is often the difference between wins and losses in a football game. A Punter in the 3rd round isn't really that big of a deal. After the second round ends there tends to be a larger amount of variation between draft boars from team to team. Sometimes guys picked in the 3rd round weren't even considered 7th rounders by some scouts.
     
  16. Major

    Major Member

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    Right - but my point is that if you didn't have a particular 3rd string RB, you'd have a different one. So if your RB gets 500 yards, but a replacement level player would have gotten 300, then your RB really only netted you 200 extra yards. The punter here got you 500 additional yards - which is more than most backups will contribute at other positions (in absolute yards, they get many thousand per season, but since any generic punter can get a lot of that, I'm only looking at the additional portion).

    Punter yards can come away from the goal line - but that doesn't mean they are less valuable. It still means 5 yards more that the other team needs to score, or 5 yards less for you when you get the ball back. And the punter gets you those yards without consuming a down, unlike a RB who may get 500 yards, but if (for example) he does it at 2.5 ypc, then it's actually a net negative to your team because he's wasting downs with inefficient performance.
     
  17. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    Would you trade Javarris Williams for Shane Lechler?
     
  18. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    I don't have enough info to make that decision. I would not trade Posey, Brooks, Caldwell, or Mitchell for Lechler.

    Major,

    I am biased on this issue because I am a Texans fan and teams in the NFL punt too much. 3rd string RBs entering the season have been very valuable for the Texans the past three years due to injuries. Moats got a lot of tough 1st downs for the Texans. Ward did a great job. Tate rushed great last season. For the average team you are right. I still will think a 3rd round pick is way too valuable on a punter.
     
  19. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    That's the current Texans 3rd string RB for the best punter. I'd bet the Texans do it in a heartbeat.

    Ward sucked. Most 3rd string RBs do. Foster is an unusual case and Tate was actually drafted to be a top 2 back, not 3rd string. In arguing whether he was worth a 3rd round choice, I agree with you. In arguing which is more important between a 3rd string RB and a great punter, I'd value the punter more.
     

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