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Jaden Ivey Will Be The Pick, I Guarantee It!

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by ghettocheeze, May 19, 2022.

  1. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    Didn't read the 6 pages preceding my post but "guard dominated league" is a misconception in today's NBA. Look at the past 4 years in MVP voting:

    2022: Jokic, Embiid, Giannis
    2021: Jokic, Embiid, Curry
    2020: Giannis, LeBron, Harden
    2019: Giannis, Harden, Paul George

    Look at the past 4 championship teams:

    2021: Best player on the team, Giannis
    2020: Best player on the team, AD or LeBron take your pick
    2019: Best player on the team, Kawhi
    2018: Best player on the team, Durant

    A big man--specifically an elite one--can carry your team just as successfully as an elite guard can..and probably even moreso. Based on last year's draft I trust Stone's decision-making. That being said, I'd only give it a 20% chance he selects Ivey over whoever is left among Banchero/Smith/Holmgren. There's an opportunity to significantly raise the ceiling of this team's front court play with any of the top 3 prospects and I don't see why Stone would pass that up.
     
  2. Hemingway

    Hemingway Member
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    He wont pass it up. Whichever of the three is left he will take. I personally think smith is going to drop to us.
     
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  3. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    Agreed. It's fun as fans to dreamcast all of the possible scenarios but, at the end of the day, Stone will gladly take whoever's left at 3.
     
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  4. treyk3

    treyk3 Contributing Member

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    Hopefully Chet’s frame scares the others. I highly doubt it but picking him at 3 is probably both his and the team’s best case. It lowers the chance of risk because the other two are gone and lowers the expectations and increases opportunity because unlike Orlando the Rockets have a Franchise player and unlike OKC the Rockets actually allow their players to play.
     
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  5. Aruba77

    Aruba77 Contributing Member

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    Clutch, what is your “educated guess” on where the rockets have Paolo, especially in light of Stone’s comment about not wanting redundant weaknesses? That would seem to indicate a clear top 2 in Jabari and Chet, but it throws shade on how they view Ivey and Paolo, who have some redundant weaknesses with Green and Sengun, no? Could Keegan Murray be higher on our board?
     
  6. treyk3

    treyk3 Contributing Member

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    The Rockets really like Paolo. They can posture or say whatever they want. They really like Paolo. If he’s there at 3 and the other two bigs are taken, he’s the pick.
     
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  7. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    Agreed. I think if Chet doesn't go #1 and falls to us at 3 his competitiveness is going to make him work extra hard to prove the naysayers wrong. One intangible that I love about him is he goes out there an competes and won't back down. It might be the slight needed to solidify him turning into an MVP-level candidate in the future.
     
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  8. treyk3

    treyk3 Contributing Member

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    I just can’t imagine Presti passing on him, he’s too smart and very risk oriented. He’s the ultimate Presti pick.
     
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  9. BigM

    BigM Contributing Member

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    Agreed. There’s no way Chet is falling to 3. I’d rather Orlando take Chet and Banchero fall to us then for OKC to get Chet and Smith fall to us. Chet is going to be a beast and I’d rather not see him on OKC.
     
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  10. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    I don't know to be honest. The most logical pick would be Chet in a scenario where he doesn't go #1 but Presti hasn't been shy about zigging while others zag. IIRC, picking westbrook at #4 was a shocker to some as others thought Presti was going to take Love, Gallo or Gordon so he doesn't mind thinking outside of the box. OKC needs more offense in the worst way possible and Paolo or Jabari can help with that. Holmgren's no slouch offensively but I think the ceiling is higher with the other two.
     
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  11. peleincubus

    peleincubus Member

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    I’m hoping for Jabari still. The magic or Thunder just need to decide they don’t want a role player type pick and want someone that is I guess you could say more of conventional top pick in a draft. For 3 players that are of similar height and position to an extent are very much different.
     
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  12. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    In my own mind, it makes sense to see a draft order of: Chet, Paolo, Jabari. Chet gives Orlando a two way center and affords the Magic the luxury of using Bamba or Isaac as trade bait to get back assets. Paolo gives OKC another ball handler but one with size and can score at multiple locations/zones. Jabari fits snugly next to Sengun and Green with his perimeter shooting and above average defense.
     
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  13. treyk3

    treyk3 Contributing Member

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    Picking third is best case scenario with all three especially if Sharpe doesn’t sneak ahead. If Jabari and Paolo are on the board at 3 it’s going to get chippy.
     
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  14. krosfyah

    krosfyah Contributing Member
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    #1 and #2 options on all four teams are guards or SF.

    Bam Adebayo was picked 14 in 2017 and scored 6 points in the last game. Height = 6'9"
    Robert Williams was picked 27th in 2018 and is averaging 10ppg. Height = 6'10"

    That isn't exactly the production you want from your #3 pick.

    Steph Curry = 6'3" (one dimensional?)
    James Harden = 6'5" (one dimensional?)
    Allen Iverson (Shall I keep listing off all the guards that are under 6'5" that are in the hall of fame?)

    I'm not saying we don't need any big men on the team. You can pick up a serviceable guy @ #17 or as a FA.

    Reasonable people can disagree. If I'm the GM, I'm taking Ivey at #2 (much less #3). The NBA is littered with big men that were overhyped that never amounted to anything because teams value height over talent. Time will tell. I think Banchero is the most NBA ready and likely wins ROY. I think Ivy will have had the best NBA career when the dust settles. I might be wrong. Nobody knows for sure.
     
  15. Stephen_A

    Stephen_A Member

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    I’m an Ivey fan but how does this work?

    A. Both play at the 2/combo guard and neither play point unless rockets looking to transition one of them to point

    B. Having 2 dynamic guards muddles the half court offense. Who gets the ball? Yes Green can play off ball and Ivey has capability to play a little off ball but one would have to defer to the other still. This would limit one of their games to spot up shooting. Are they willing?

    C. This move doesn’t solve Rockets interior defense issue or perimeter defense for that matter. Also doesn’t address replacement for Wood.

    D. What does this mean for KPJ? They already committed 2 years to him and likely have kept him around another year to evaluate before deciding to extend him. Moving him to the 3 creates even more ball sharing issues as he often holds the ball opting to play one on one which is one of his strengths. Again he would have to modify his game for more spot up shooting and offball movement. Remember Cavs tried this and he didn’t fit with sexton and garland.
     
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  16. Stephen_A

    Stephen_A Member

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    Yes you’re right. I agree.

    Historically having 2 dynamic combo guards with a scoring mentality in the starting unit hasn’t bode well for teams since the offense is imbalanced with too many offensive minded players who need the ball to score or make plays. Good teams usually have the right synergy mixing diverse skills and strengths. Take Warriors. Thompson is a guy who plays off flares and up screens etc to get open and he attacks the paint when he has the lane. He doesn’t go one on one often. Heat played Lowry who is a playmaking guard while not as good offensively he needs the ball but has robinson as his shooter-another guy that understands his role and doesn’t do too much. Same situation in Boston with Smart and Brown. Smart doesn’t need the ball and understands that brown and tatum are the go to on offense. He just plays defense, calms the team in the half court set, and take whats given to him with the three or open lane. Balance. That’s why Jabari Smith can be very good with us granted the Rockets dump KPJ. Another good example of 2 dynamic guards not working.
     
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  17. Rockets Rule

    Rockets Rule Contributing Member

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    nope….. going Jabari if available
     
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  18. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    Drafting the past 4-5 years have been fairly solid in terms of big men selected high in the draft and their potential.

    2021: Jury's still out but Mobley and Barnes have delivered on a good amount of their expectation and hype
    2020: Wiseman and Patrick Williams have been injured so we really can't write them off yet
    2019: Zion was playing at an all-nba level before his injury.
    2018: Ayton has played well, Jaren Jackson Jr has delivered on his two-way promise/hype, same with Bamba. Only busty guy here is Bagley
    2017: Isaac was playing really well until injury hit

    I think we're seeing more shrewd scouting nowadays than what we saw early on where the Okafors, Noels, Eddy Curry's, Thabeets of the world were selected high.
     
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  19. Aruba77

    Aruba77 Contributing Member

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    its like the Milwaukee Bucks didn’t win the championship last year behind a big man. Or that Embid wasn’t the real MVP this yr…on top of the other big man MVP.

    I understand the advantages of going small but special big men who arent statues but are versatile players can be invaluable. The 3 bigs at the top are part of that new trend of mobile, versatile bigs. Not an easy thing to find. If any of these guys have the potential to be as good as Jokic, Embid or Giannis you take them.
     
  20. Stephen_A

    Stephen_A Member

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    Its about fit and balance man. There are busts at guard and sf as well as there are busts at big men. You are undervaluing bigs as without them you aren’t winning a championship and especially for talented big men. I don’t understand why you are so fixated on height. Its more about what a player can give you. Bam and Robert williams changes the complexion of the game. You don’t necessarily need to score 30 points to affect the game. Any GM would understand this. It has always been the sum of parts and you speak as if having good serviceable bigs are easy to come by. If so then why don’t the Rockets have any good bigs? You see how by having “bigs” helped Boston and Miami. Ayton also helped Suns before they got bounced. Bam is special and plays bigger while having a long wing span. Grant Williams may not be tall but he’s a solid built guy that also plays bigger. My question is how does ivey fit with green. Neither of these guys are point guards. Ja played point in college.
     
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