It's a matter of Bidenomics!

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More Americans are retiring than ever before. See what that means for you.
America’s aging population is reshaping the workforce, with far-reaching economic consequences

https://www.washingtonpost.com/tech...rce-economy/?itid=hp-top-table-main_p001_f002

 

Our aging population will be a major strain on our budgets on one end, but keep a very tight labor pool on the other.

 

More manufacturing jobs going to red states bcz of biden...Quit helping MAGA!! They won't ever be thankful.

 

They can always "un-retire" if they can't handle a downturn in the biz cycle.

At some point gov interventions dry up and markets are forced to cope without it.

 

What @Os Trigonum forgets to mention cuz he's a right wing troll is now senior citizens can get free obamacare insurance while they wait for Medicare to kick in. Folks aren't forced to work until their 65 no more cuz health care has never been more affordable with the aca expansion.

The system forced folks to work until they were 65 before and had no back up options for insurance. Folks have that option now. Good for them?

 

We already have a solution for our aging population and declining birth rates listed in the article. Immigration.

 

I meant more about the "Great Resignation" where folks hovering around or before retirement age left the jobs market by choice, but could also be forced to return for whatever reasons...economic downturn, stagflation, debts, rent, etc.

On one hand, you have Powell determined to "contain inflation" presumably through weakened jobs/wages, but on the other, the government has been infusing money since the last year, whether through bailouts, previously allocated stimulus money from Inflation Reduction Act, or whatever executive tricks they can throw at to influence voters.

Yeah, that'll end well.

 

If democrats hadn't passed their spending legislation we would 100% be in a recession right now and powell would've won. Powell goal from the start was to slash unemployment cuz the market was too tight.

Its neoliberalism bullshit but the good thing is biden didn't listen and still went big on executive actions. His student loan pause alone has injected 300 billion dollars in the market alone.

We have 34000 current infrastructure Jobs happening cuz of biden and another 500 billion of manufacturing investments hitting all at once also.



Powell wanted to destroy the economy cuz unions and workers were empowered.

 

Hmm, I genuinely don't know if it's "neoliberal" to want to curb inflation. That's the reason why people hate the Biden economy, which upper class libs like to pretend is no big thing now with a new calendar year and by focusing on monthly changes. I'm sure debt/credit markets love it when their money is watered down. No mutiny there in the form of yield curve inversions...

I blame Powell for continuing ZIRP nearly a year after vaccine rollout while still going crazy with QE. That plus the hundreds of billions in CARES and PPP money (how much of it went to fraud?) catalyzed the inflation mess along with supply chain and resource/labor constraints. The latter two have mostly been resolved while labor and commodities are proxies for overall growth. But QE and low rate policies tend to hurt the poor who save at near 0% savings rates with little or no capital assets, and richly reward the wealthy just by virtue of their wealth rather than labor with stupid liquidity and asset booms.

Powell isn't the only actor as it does many things in conjunction with the Treasury. So Mnuchin and Yellen also deserve "credit".

Anyhow, 2021 delivered the Everything Bubble, yet there hasn't been an Everything Bust. When you start plugging holes that appears from financial engineering, you're masking and propping up a lot of dead money (crypto wasn't saved by the Fed...Blackrock accepts that challenge). I gave Trump **** for getting Mnuchin/Powell to intervene bail out the corporate debt market right after the covid crash, and here we are doing as much as we can to prop up bad assets that snowballed from previous interventions, all for the sake of "jobs held hostage" by said bad/negligent actors.

But what do I know...we borrow more good money to prop up bad money, which makes it harder to fight inflation and also more expensive to borrow said good money. As interest burden grows against GDP, positive benefits of re-inflation(growth) can easily sour into stagflation, but with Trump-P-B-B-Bidenomics you borrow even more money during "booms" for momentum to election year and hope that things will fix itself by then.

Powell paused his rate hikes...soft landing here we come amirite??

 

There's different methods to control inflation. Raising interest rates without tackling supply constraints is 100% neoliberalism mindset. Elite liberals use month over month inflation numbers cuz that's the best way to gage recent inflation? What metric would you wanna use?

There wasn't a single g7 country in the world that was able to control inflation faster while creating more jobs? This is just a fact and isn't a spin.

People don't realize how big of a deal the manufacturing boom truly is

 

Bidenomics = creating millions of good high paying union jobs. What's not to like ?

 

honestly I don't see what the big deal is, we've been assured that Biden has created the mostest and bestest jobs in history . . . students with loans should be swimming in dollars

Student debt: White House faces backlash for restarting interest on loans

https://thehill.com/homenews/408239...es-backlash-for-restarting-interest-on-loans/

 

The WH isn't reporting any non payments for 12 months. Students can sign up for the new IDR program and 99% of them are eligible for 0 dollar loans.

 

I guess a globalist would sign more free trade deals while reducing cold war tensions against China. The globalist would also force peace talks in Ukraine because even if the world can't rely on Russian energy, having it back on the global market would do wonders for energy and food prices.

So the second order effects like reshoring part of the supply chain or exporting LNG to Europe is patriotic and very very ad hoc from a free markets standpoint. It is also inflationary.

I'm not saying that's the main reason but it goes back to the point where the policy is all over the place.

At some point, it's crying over spilled milk over Powell's QE policies along with Fed's inherent conflict of interest of betting on the equities markets along with their persistent claims that inflation was transitory. Their credibility is highly suspect but their role as cheerleaders is more than half their magic so the media complies with the illusion. Buying more ****, after all, is patriotic. A lack of confidence by Powell can quickly tank the markets. It's happened before thus the song and dance everytime the chairman speaks.

Powell and Yelen aren't getting fired anytime soon and the market is still trained for "surgical interventions," aka Greenspan/Bernanke continuation of moral hazard through direct stock interventions. That doesn't seem very for-the-people minded, esp when history repeats with publicly funded bailouts with zero convictions but the narrative shifted into it being "all about saving jobs..."

Without a consensus about inflation and the asset bubbles we've been riding, subsequent "fixes" become dangerously risky and haphazard. Housing is still pricy. Stock market Recovery has been pulled along by virtually 7 major companies. Revolving corporate and consumer credit are still issues. Commercial real estate is becoming more and more rate sensitive as remote work erodes occupancy rates. Meme stocks and speculative options/WSB "investing" from 2-3 years ago is still alive and kicking.

Not blaming Biden directly but these are all endemic aspects of an asset bubble economy that does not seem healthy nor sustainable.

Everything is pinned on the dollar and our consumer markets. We also recovered comparatively quicker after the Great Recession, with China outpacing us. As with the GFC, we coordinate with other banks to smooth over currency wars like preventing the pound from crashing during the Truss admin or the yen from weakening even further.

They're forced to play our tune due to our size and the fact that our assets are relatively safer from an investing standpoint.

We exported our "transitory" inflation and the why goes back to the dead horse I've beating a few sentences earlier. People love and trust Powell/Fed like the Pope but have they really earned it?

 

Which policy is all over the place? Im sorry but im not understanding you? Neoliberals would've signed free trade agreements with countries in the indo pacific like obama was pushing to reduce global tensions. This is what we did in the 90s with china by allowing it into the FTO thinking it would somehow make them more democratic. None of that worked. Instead biden we're helping them with their infrastructure and arming them to the Tee.

Im not really understanding you here. How exactly is biden neoliberal in this approach ?

I think you're looking at things as glass half empty instead of half filled. The reason why meme stocks are doing good and russel 2k and small cap are rallying is because people have extra savings and the interest rate hikes didnt effect people as badly as they thought.

Unemployment is at record lows while CAPEX spending for manufacturing is literally at 50 year high. Im not understanding what red signs you see in the economy?

USA didnt have the fastest recovery post great recesssion? it actually had one of the slowest in the world because obama failed to go big and was a neoliberal..... the only reason trump ever won in 2016 was because the recovery was so shitty. Unemployment took almost a decade to recover......

 

I don't know how the government is achieving your point of "There's different methods to control inflation. Raising interest rates without tackling supply constraints is 100% neoliberalism mindset." if the Fed wants to hit their 2% target rate.
Powell even brought up shades of Volcker when talking about slower growth and softer labor market conditions.

Call me skeptical to think you can hit 2% while pumping money elsewhere in the economy. Instead we will continue to get rate hikes beyond what tanked Credit Suite or the bailed out mid-sized banks, which then...

The NY Fed has a recession prediction index through the yield curve. It's the highest it's been since pre-pandemic, the last time the yc inverted. It wasn't just the shutdown that killed markets and the economy though the shutdown gave the government good excuse to bail everyone out without clearing out the trash.
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq#/interactive

You might be right. I can't predict the future. I'm willing to give credit where it's due, but I can't put Powell in high regard since he hasn't been consistent nor principled in his moves.

Biden has to work his own angle for 2024, but the economic obstacles he has is fighting/delaying a business downtrend or interfering too much for an unexpected result.

He should get credit for spending in areas past presidents neglected and diverted to costly wars. It's just that our debt burden he inherited is getting even more painful with the interest payments alone.

China and Asia were bellweathers, but the US's recovery was comparatively quicker than Japan and Europe, which is sad because like you mentioned, it feels more like a gaslight than a true recovery. Europe had a couple of financial crises in between and Japan also had its own false starts. The US tightly coordinates policy with Europe and Japan. The whole gas situation with Russia would've been a bigger cluster**** if they didn't stand together in principle rather than their own self interests (credit Biden).

For re-opening, we also had the benefit of quicker access to vaccines. Europe banned their batch of AZ and we bought out the initial allotments of the competing brands. Yeah we exported inflation, but other countries relied on our consumer spending to put life in their exports. China's draconian shutdowns (they're still flat) meant there wasn't an alternative to jumpstart the world economy.