So, heypartner and verse were discussing the success rates of ISOs in another thread. I'm really interested in nailing down a system for calculating the success rates of plays (not just ISOs, hp's double walt pick, e.g) heypartner says Rudy says: verse thinks ISO should be scored like this: I like heypartner's scheme a little better. (hp'll probly say his scheme is THE scheme since that's the way Rudy does it) Sounds like what heypartner is saying is that if we score a bucket (or a foul, etc.) with the ISO set (without resetting the offense into different positions) it counts as a successful ISO, otherwise its a failed ISO. We're still in the same set when we throw the ball around the horn and score after Cat gets doubled on the ISO or when Cato gets a put-back slam because of the spacing created by the ISO set. So these count as successes. Some other cases aren't so straightforward. Say Cat gets an ISO, he drives to the basket, misses the shot, and the Rockets get a long offensive board. How does that count? Say Cat's defender fouls him on the floor (no bonus) and we get into a new set when we throw the ball in. How does that count? Do these count as failed ISOs or should we just consider them a wash and count it as neither a success or a failure? Should outcomes like this add to the total number of ISOs? I'd suggest that missed shot and a long board (as opposed to a put-back slam or a tip-in) should count as a failed ISO since being in the ISO set didn't necessarily contribute to our getting the rebound. As for Cat getting fouled on the floor, it seems to me that shouldn't count as an ISO at all. This makes the ISO success rate harder to keep track of, though. I wanna be able to make a tick mark on my score sheet whenever the Rockets go into an ISO set, but I'd have to erase that mark if the isolated player gets fouled on the floor. That makes it a little more irritating to track. I'd like to be able to say that EVERY ISO was a success or failure, just because it makes it easier to count. I'll take a clipboard to the game tonight and keep track and see how this all works out. Maybe a couple of us can do this and compare our numbers after the game. I must be missing some other potential outcomes of ISO sets... help me out
Some long boards can come as a function to our players hanging around the perimeter. My suggested formula is: foul by opponents, illegal defense, made basket (assist or none), offensive rebounds (max of only one "credit per play) Divided by the number of times the play is run. My question for Rudy/hp's success formula: What if Cat passes it, gets credited with an assist, and say Cato makes the field goal. Is that 2 "successes" in one attempt, or just one? I look forward to seeing the success rates counted by different people. Well look at that, #1500. ------------------ The Serious Police are watching. Follow the rules or be assimilated. Shandon is underrated.
i would think that it would be 1 successful trip. the reason i did mine that way is because i feel that a set is run with the express purpose of achieving a direct positive result. a put back, yes. i can live with that as a success, because the set put those players in the position to score that put back. however, a fumbled ball/broken play whereby a rocket "ends up" with the ball and chucks it in does not count as a success in my book of plays (though i'll gladly take it on the scoreboard! ) really, the differences between hp's formula and mine aren't that different. there should not be that many broken plays to make a significant difference. we'll find out tonight and over the coarse of the next few games ------------------ Mobley and Francis ...are not the two best players on the team. - Rockeem 11/2/2000
verse - I agree that a broken play should not count as an ISO success, no matter what happens. I guess the problem going to be deciding whether a given play was busted or not. Its a subjective decision at some level. Its also important that the total number of ISO sets equals the sum of the recorded ISO successes and failures. That's why I'm not sure if Cat getting fouled on the floor should even count as a ISO for the purpose of the success rate. If we can't mark a given outcome as a success or a failure than it shouldn't count at all. I'm going to try to hack up a little scorecard to use at the game tonight. If get finished in time, I'll post it for others to use.
i'd say a non-shooting foul would not count as a positive or negative, because we retain the ball and do not shoot. however, it is important to note that if cassell or allen or big dog picks up their sixth foul "on the floor" against mobley, it is the largest "+" of the night! ------------------ Mobley and Francis ...are not the two best players on the team. - Rockeem 11/2/2000
What a great name for the thread...jamcracker. Also, thanks for pulling this in its own thread. <font size="1">disclaimer,,,I've only done these calculations in my head, unless I was watching a tape. notepads get in the way of my beer and yelling at the Summit.</font> one major correction...I have never heard Rudy detail his method of tracking success of plays. I have only heard him say Barkley's success rate. I base my calculation on what I've actually heard from a college scout I know. Jamcracker and verse are correct in that the trackers use very simple methods. Perfect accuracy is balanced by ease of tracking and NO SUBJECTIVITY (gray areas). What I counted last year was this: fgm* trips to the line** *(including immediate scores from off-rebounds in prime scoring position after a drive to the hole) ** (don't count twice with fgm) The only time I did a "wash" was on anything that produced an out-of-bounds play resulting from a floor foul or defensive violation (eg. kicking the ball). Missed outside shots (rebounded or not) and busted plays that cause re-sets/scrambling shots were failure (the later is very rare due to how simple the ISO play is).
What do you think about offensive boards other than put-back slams? Are they successes or failures? Like heypartner said, "NO SUBJECTIVITY".
depends. if it's an offensive board and a putback shot (dunk, short jumper, long rebound for 3) i'd consider that a positive ISO situation. if we got an offensive rebound and reset, i'd wait before i judged that trip downcourt as a positive or negative. if we reset and run something othr than a ISO play, i'd count that ISO trip as a negative. however, if we reset, ran another ISO play and got a positive result out of it (score, fgm, ftm, etc.) i'd count that trip as a positive. to be succinct (before i head home from work ), i'm going by the trips down court. each trip down court is 1 possession. and if we run 18 iso plays in that 1 possession, it makes no difference to me. that 1 possession is either going to get a positive or a negative. it was either successful or unsuccessful. BTW, if we miss both FTs that's unsuccessful, too. it's the same thing as a missed layup. i'll count 1 out of 2 FTs as a success, since we did get a foul out of it. i'll try to log in when i get home. the beauty of san antonio is that nothing, i mean nothing, is far away ! ------------------ Mobley and Francis ...are not the two best players on the team. - Rockeem 11/2/2000
It would be one. At least I think so. Your ultimate goal in any possession of the ball is to score. You scored once no matter what all you did in the interim to get that score. Otherwise your success-to-posession ratio would be umm... weird. "This play is 127% successful every time we run it" ------------------ A friend of mine graduated from law school in May, and he's had a heck of a time finding work....He might be a moron, though. (I don't think he is, but one never knows. He was a moron when we were five years-old.) -- mrpaige reflects on his friends
I counted 2 Shakes as 3-8, last night. I don't recall more than one run in the 4th quarter. Good indicator that Rudy will not force Mobley upon us this year when it isn't working. What did others get? [This message has been edited by heypartner (edited November 03, 2000).]
