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Is this the last we will see of Carlos Correa?

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by what, Oct 16, 2020.

  1. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    Happy Birthday Carlos!
     
  2. The Real Shady

    The Real Shady Contributing Member

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    I trust Luhnow, still waiting to see on Click. Just hope he doesn't use the money to saved from not signing Correa to bring in another Odorizzi, Castro, and Baez.
     
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  3. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    You keep bringing up this sentiment factor regarding Altuve and Verlander extensions. I think it was as much about being performance and value driven. Altuve was coming off an MVP year and the Astros had leverage to get a deal done because of the team friendly contract Altuve signed early in his career. No way Altuve would have only gotten a 5 year deal if he was a free agent. Altuve needed to cash in while his value was as high as possible instead of waiting 3 years for that contract to expire.

    For Verlander he was coming off a year where he finished 2nd in Cy Young and that was a year after leading the Astros to their first World Series. It also only required a 2 year deal which makes it much easier to agree to a fat salary, and it gave Verlander injury protection for the 2019 season. Astros don't have those factors with Correa. The Astros have no leverage and it will require a much longer deal to bring back Carlos.
     
  4. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    The Astros didn’t get a discount on either of those players. In the case of Altuve, they definitely didn’t have to extend him when they did…. Just think about all the other players they could have had the last 3 years with that money, along with now they’re paying a higher value for Altuve for still valuable, but not MVP, like performance.

    if you don’t think Cranes desire to win, their recent success, and the extra revenues tied to that success helped fuel those decisions, not sure where else to go with this discussion.

    The decision to possibly bring in any big free agent, including Correa, would be to optimize the potential to win for the remaining prime years of Bregman/Altuve as well as optimizing the cheaper years of the rotation. If they don’t feel there’s a clear pathway to contention, I don’t see them hanging on to players for sentiment.
     
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  5. Colt45

    Colt45 Member
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    And Dierk! On this date (his 18th birthday) in 1964 Larry Dierker made his major league debut for the Colt .45's.
     
  6. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    Only having to extend Altuve 5 years was the discount. Signing an MVP where the contract ends at age 34 is a gigantic value over paying Miguel Cabrera or Pujols until their 40s. Altuve's deal was great value even compared to having to pay Yellich until he is 37 like the Brewers do. That deal doesn't even kick in until next year and they still had to extend him 7 years to get it done.

    Of course winning allows them to spend more money to continue trying to win. I never said it didn't, and Crane has showed his desire to win several times with the extensions and the Greinke trade. HOWEVER, none of those moves required an 8-12 year commitment north of 250 million to one player. He's never done it and you can't say he will based on a 5 year and 2 year extension to an MVP and a Cy Young runner up... something Correa won't be even with his really good year.

    Personally, I think they can "optimize" their window and have a better overall team by not paying Correa 30 million.
     
  7. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    They had free money with Altuve for another 3 years and could have then extended him at a reduced rate given his age/decline. They’re not as shrewd, $$ wise, as being portrayed… and there’s little chance they’d have offered that sort of deal when they did, without the success of winning it all. Unexpected splurges can come from a host of places. Also, locking in a younger Altuve for 7+ years at the age they did is not that different at locking in Correa till age 34 given how much younger he is at FA, but certainly at an increased price.

    Also just saying he’s “never done it” also doesn’t carry much weight. Correa is the very first possible candidate that could even entertain that sort of money/extension.

    Most didn’t think they would give the years/money to LMJ… and now in hindsight looks like a steal. They offered Keuchel 5/90.

    Seems like you don’t think any player is worthy of 8-12 year deals, and that’s a philosophy that will be hard to argue against once you’re dug-in, although I re-iterate that no team is truly stuck with that player for the life of their contract.

    I do think the Astros have a 3 year window to continue to win… regardless of the possible unknowns. That will take them to a period of contention for about 10 years, unheard of in Houston sports history (let alone Astros history). 1997-2005 was fun as well, although they did make a commitment to cornerstones to optimize that run. Doing a similar plan (and trading whichever high priced player they have left when the period of contention is over) is a strategy that Crane could consider… and gain plenty of generational fans that will look back on this era just as fondly as having Biggio/Bagwell type legacies for what is still a relatively young/lacking prolonged history/franchise.
     
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  8. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    Astros didn't have 2 guys on the roster that will be making 30 million a year in 2 years when they extended Altuve. You have to look at the whole picture. Verlander at 20 million and Keuchel at 13.2 million were their highest salaries, but those were only for 2 years left for Verlander and one for Keuchel at the time of the Altuve extension.

    Also, I never said nobody was worth an 8 plus year deal. 2018-2019 Bregman was worth an 8-10 year deal. I would have no problem paying Vlad Jr at age 22 an 8 plus year contract. Correa has been in the league 6 plus seasons. This is his best year and he is going to be a 6ish WAR player with a lot of that value coming from his defense. Bregman was a 7.6 and 8.4 WAR player at ages 24 and 25. I would have been fine if they gave Bregman 8-10 years that would have ended when he was 33-35 years old. Now with his recent injury problems Astros might be lucky they didn't give him that long of a deal. Plus Bregman probably wanted to secure his 100 million and get another shot at free agency at age 30.
     
  9. asianballa23

    asianballa23 Member

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    hope we dont lose another star player to the yanks
     
  10. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    But still, he didn’t have to extend Altuve when he did. Crane also can afford more now compared back to 2015, and he also knows the true financial impact of having a year-in/year-out contender… albeit this year the attendance has been disappointing in comparison to how good the team is.

    Regarding the Bregman comp, that’s fair. But also a perfect example of why you can’t put much stock in players who produce early but get hurt late, and vice versa. The biggest concern with Correa has always been his ability to stay healthy… and the biggest concerns surrounding that was the back that was thought to be chronic, but now going on 3 years of no flare ups. Correa was on MVP-trajectories 2017/2019 pre other injuries that was at a younger age than Bregman’s peak. Correa probably hasn’t peaked either… or could have merely a sustained prime given his young age.

    Vlad could continue to put on the weight and start to have weight-related injury concerns. Tatis looks to be as safe a bet as possible, but this year has had its share of ups/downs that don’t necessarily go away. Guys like Harper/Trout are phenoms that nobody knows if they have the ability to do it on the biggest of stages, because they’re on teams that have never been there.

    Also, in 3 years time, the Astros won’t have any player making $30 million dollars…. I am looking at the whole picture and I just really want them to have the best known possible team during that time. As this year showed, having lineup redundancy (Brantley/Bregman missing huge chunks of time) can keep a team with a weak bullpen and no truly dominant starter not only afloat but in line for the best record in the league. Having clubhouse leaders who tend to perform well on the biggest stage is also something that can’t be automatically scouted or projected in a minor league or FA,
     
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  11. Marshall Bryant

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    Just a nit or two. Verlander WON the Cy Young AND threw his third No Hitter. Cole was the one that came in second and left for NYY.

    I think giving him the 2 year deal was a good idea at the time, even though he wound up being injured. But I see a Qualifying offer as a given and very low risk. $20M for a potential ACE if he recovers fully or draft value because someone else will pay to take the risk, Altuve was signed coming off the MVP and three batting titles in four years. Bregman was signed coming off a fifth and second in MVP voting.

    All of these deals were below market or expected Arbitration plus market in Bregman's case. None exceeded 7 years.
     
  12. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    No, I was talking about the season before Verlander got his extension. In 2018 Verlander finished 2nd in the Cy Young to Blake Snell. Verlander signed the extension in spring training 2019. He won the Cy Young in 2019 AFTER he had signed the extension.

    I'm all for giving Verlander the qualifying offer.

    Let me make this clear... I'd love it if the Astros decided to keep Correa if they thought they could keep fielding a competitive team and were willing to go above their current payroll levels. I'm saying I don't think they will resign him. What we have heard from Correa and Altuve and what I've heard from other people lead me to believe he is not staying. I think though that even without Correa the Astros can make some moves this offseason and be a better team next year than they are this year.

    Yes, they are better off financially than 2015 but 2020 was a kick in the nuts and like you said attendance hasn't recovered yet. They were better off in 2018-2019 than they are now. Plus, we have no idea how the new CBA will change things. It could close the competitive window faster, and I doubt it will be better for the teams. Players are going to get changes to team control and pay to some degree or another. So spending 30 million for 10 years on one player could have an even worse effect on a roster than it currently does if pre arb and arb salaries go up.
     
  13. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    I’m a firm believer that any team can get out of a contract if the team is no longer competitive.

    I also don’t see Correa going to a team that isn’t going to automatically be in the thick of the pennant race or a team that would trade him to a bigger market as soon as they couldn’t afford him. (Why I don’t think Miami will happen).

    Both sides seeing where they are after a full season (and post season) was always the plan. There was never going to be an 8-10 year deal prior.
     
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  14. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    Let’s just win the whole Fkn thing again and see what happens
     
  15. HTXSportsAddict

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    everyday eddie, desihooper and King1 like this.
  16. Yordan The Great

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    So what about this Pena kid?

    I'm pretty stoked to see him next spring.
     
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  17. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    If they don't sign Correa, and they don't spend money elsewhere, he will be groomed to eventually take over

    Need to keep in mind that he is 24 years old... or basically older than Correa was when he won his first WS.
     
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  18. asianballa23

    asianballa23 Member

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    you think CC will give Astros a hometown discount just by winning the whole thing? He's got a freaking family to feed man
     
  19. Elienator

    Elienator Member

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    I took the comment more about Crane would spend.
     
  20. homewight

    homewight Contributing Member

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    Correa's won more than one WS?
     

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