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Is there a big problem on our offensive side?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by 疯狂伊文戴德蒙, Dec 10, 2018.

  1. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    Right, but I'm just stating the obvious... the game ultimately is about net rating. My point isn't to say offensive efficiency rankings are useless or not very valuable.

    It's to note, the Rockets might have good offensive efficiency overall, except OBVIOUSLY, on a game by game basis, it's worse then their opponents.

    Which might most likely because the Rockets defensive efficiency sucks.

    But its harder to tell than just pure ORtg. The Rockets still have an ok ORtg, but turn the ball over too much, which has them 21st in opponent points off turnovers. So that's a problem with the offense that leads to a problem with the defense. They're only 8th in TO/g, but that's at their molasses slow pace.

    So, in other words, when I'm saying yeah their offensive efficiency is still good, but they are 21st in ppg, it's to point out, when you look at their record and how much their scoring, their offensive efficiency being 9th DOESN'T MATTER that much.
     
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  2. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    Crazy... and indeed why I was interested.

    Also... seems like it can't possibly be right.

    Surely, in the history of the game, there are cases where one team won because it had an extra possession or two.
     
  3. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    stat can only go back to 1983-84. but the query requires that extra possession to also not push the ORtg higher than the opponent.

    I suppose it's possible there is a rounding error in their calculation ... but I used <=, not just less than.

    I'll try to run it on NBA.com, who now no longer calculates Possession, but actually counts them.
     
    #23 heypartner, Dec 11, 2018
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2018
  4. EightDoobies

    EightDoobies Member

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    It's our defense.. it's awful. When you don't play defense.. our whole energy on the court drains. When we are playing defense and scoring. Man, we look like a damn juggernaut.
     
  5. RocketsFan247

    RocketsFan247 Member

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    I think Morey alluded to this in one of his interviews this year that advanced metrics and stats sorta go out the window in late-game situations. I'm all in for the advanced metrics since they're largely a reflection of past performance, but one would really have to watch the game and fish for the advanced stat to find out that we're terrible in the clutch.

    I think to answer OP's question, one thing that we can improve on is how quickly we can attack the defense. It's very obvious when CP3 and Harden lower their head and go into iso-mode. Immediately, the defense will press up, show hands, and throw a quick double with 3-4 seconds left on the shot clock. Optically, it makes our stars look out of shape because they're watching and waiting as opposed to attacking and causing the defense to react. Placing more emphasis on this point shouldn't require much from Coach.

    Things I would like MDA to change about this season is recognizing the momentum of the game quicker than the players do. Only after our players have lowered their heads and give up 2 or 3 straight turnovers is when we see MDA call a timeout. It's embarrassing. He needs to save our players some face and protect them from themselves. He hasn't done that much at all in our latest road trip.
     
  6. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    yeah, and others are saying it's because the drop to 28th Defense MATTERS MORE....thus, we're discussing a matter of what is the biggest problem to address.

    The drop from 1st to 9th might already indicate the turnover problem. So if you say TOs matter more ... well, it's being shown in the drop in ORtg from 1st to 10th too, no? Don't get me wrong: there is a turnover problem....but I don't think it's systemic to offensive style vs last years 65-win style. And the Pts off of TO difference can be partly due to more energy and talent in transition defense last year.

    bottomline: I'm more on the side of ppl who say Defense (including that rebounding problem) is the biggest issue, more than Offense Style. And whatever difference in offense is primarily depth and Paul's issue this year....from my seats.
    So, like this:
    1. Defense (to include the Def Rebounding problem) -- ie teams have figured out how to exploit the rebounding mismatches
    2. Depth on offense (mainly just a bunch of rookies), hurts our sets
    3. Chris Paul
    4. Turnovers
    5. Pace (Offensive Style)
     
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  7. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    Oh yeah, I'm 100% with you.... for the most part. Defense is problem #1. BY FAR.

    But the team would be worse anyway, even with the same defense, because the offense got worse.

    I know I've gone on about PACE in a few threads... so just to clarify, I'm trying to think about things that are "changeable".

    I can't change the roster - DM can, and might eventually - but the roster is what it is in terms of overall analysis right now. So I can't make them better defensively or in terms of depth. I can "maybe" change the rebounding, by getting Nene back, or playing bigs more I guess?? I don't know... not changeable that much. I can't control CP3, but obviously if he plays better, the team is better.

    MAYBE Jeff B. has ways to improve the defense given our personnel. MAYBE.

    To me, I'm imploring PACE because I think the mojo of the roster last year is gone. They can't keep playing at this pace, score enough points, given the roster is less efficient offensively and WAY WORSE defensively. They might as well improve the PACE. It's one thing you theoretically can VERY EASILY change, in the course of a season. "theoretically" in the sense the players have to implement it... but the direction shouldn't be that complicated. Get in the sets MUCH faster.

    This might actually be disastrous for all I know... I just think its something they can try and is worth trying at the moment.

    Oh, and I would include in your list Ennis. He gives you SO MUCH less than Ariza, on the whole. People keep saying positive things about him, but i just don't see it. I think the defensive shortcomings are harder to quantify, but are clear and obvious. He doesn't have the same length, rebounding or bball IQ defensively. The offensive shortcomings are quantitatively obvious, but people aren't focused on them as they're just wondering if he can sit out there and hit threes, which he does at Ariza's clip. But he gives you 0 ball movement... he's had 2 games with double digit assists - Ariza wasn't amazing last year, but he'd sprinkle in 0 assist games with 4 assist games. Little things like that.
     
  8. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    It might be an irrelevant stat or has been pointed out already but just glossing over the pace comparisons between last year and this year, the league is just...faster.

    Last year the league had only 5 teams finishing with a pace of over 100 to end the regular season. Specifcally, at this time last year, only 7 teams were at 100 or above. Rockets finished the year at 98.1 (14th).

    This year, 22 teams are at 100 or higher as of 12/11/18, the Rockets are down there at 29th (96.91) right before the Grizzlies. The bottom third of the league in pace, right now, have only 4 teams with winning records.

    The teams that we've beaten this year:


    2 wins Bulls 19th in Pace (100.82)
    2 wins Pacers 26th in Pace (98.85)
    1 win Nuggets 27th in Pace (98.50)
    1 win Pistons 18th in Pace (100.88)
    1 win Spurs 23rd in Pace (99.57)
    1 win Nets 24th in Pace (99.38)
    1 win Warriors 13th in Pace (101.05)
    1 win Lakers 4th in Pace (103.82)
    1 win Kings 2nd in Pace (105.02)

    Teams that have beaten us this year:

    2 losses Mavericks 15th in Pace (100.98)
    2 losses Jazz 20th in Pace (100.52)
    2 losses Clippers 9th in Pace (102.44)
    1 loss T'Wolves 11th in Pace (101.48)
    1 loss Pelicans 3rd in Pace (103.98)
    1 loss Wizards 6th in Pace (103.15)
    1 loss Thunder 7th in Pace (103.14)
    1 loss Blazers 17th in Pace (100.88)
    1 loss Spurs 23rd in Pace (99.57)
    1 loss Pistons 18th in Pace (100.88)
    1 loss Cavs 28th in Pace (97.09)

    Obviously a small sample size with only 25 games and maybe i'm connecting dots that aren't even on the same page. Just found it interesting.
     
  9. SF3isBack!!

    SF3isBack!! Member

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    We arent really playing our offense.
     
  10. DaDakota

    DaDakota Never Trump
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    Yes, Harden and CP3 are playing too slow.

    DD
     
  11. tinman

    tinman Contributing Member
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    Three point shooters who can't shoot 3 pointers
     
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  12. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    So here's more (unimportant? interesting? YMMV) stats:
    shotclockdist.JPG
     
  13. Reeko

    Reeko Secretary of Defense for the Jabari Tribe
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  14. zigzag

    zigzag Member

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    狗粉丝?我佛了
     
  15. Texanasiafan

    Texanasiafan Member

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    Defense is not the biggest problem for the Rox now, neither is the offense.

    It’s the mindset.

    It’s the hangovers.

    If you really want to get into the details, here is one for you, out of all the rules changes, there is one that hit the Rox hard this year.

    Shoot clock reset to 14 seconds after the offensive rebound.

    Typically for the Rox, both CP3 and Harden like to dribble a lots - that’s what the dumb and sh’tty fans saw and believe, we’ll go to TC and watch a forking game you motherforker, there is a reason for the over dribbling, first you need to wait for the corner shooters to be set in their positions.

    Then you will either use you big man to pull the preferable match to guard Harden through switch, or the wing man to move and set picks to free up guys like EG to catch a pass for a clear look 3.

    All these are happening mostly outside the camera and it does need time to develop.

    Look I am not saying Harden is making good shot selections so far and I do agree he should bring up the ball faster.

    But go back to the 14 seconds reset new rule, it basically killed most of the choices of resetting the Rox offense to half court and develop the best iso play to dish out to the corner shooters.

    You will see more contested 3 out of those processions this year.

    Again, it’s about how to adjust.

    I ain’t saying we are fine, nor we are anywhere close to elite yet.

    But motherforkers should try to see the game from more angles to understand more.
     
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  16. jordnnnn

    jordnnnn Member

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    This. Offense has been just fine for a while overall.
     
  17. Mathloom

    Mathloom Consumption is a waste of time.
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    Our offense is fine. At this point our offense has roughly reached its ceiling and the team are excellent at executing the instructions. The only thing that can make a impactful difference is adding a new dimension (a C able to hit 3's allowing us to go 5-out or a Diaw-esque big who can pass from inside) rather than ramping up existing dimensions (what everyone refers to as our "predictable" offense).

    If you think about it for a moment: we're 7th overall on offense and 1st overall in the past 15 or so games. This sounds like an area we can propel ourselves to top 3 with some more defensive stops, 3-4 more transition opportunities and securing defensive rebounds. You cannot possibly make the case that improving the offense from 7th best in the league will make a dramatic difference to our defense.

    So we need defense more than we need offense, and we have extremely limited resources to improve, and we don't have enough depth to trade someone in the rotation for another equivalent rotation player. Yes it would be great to get a C and a wing and a PG and improve the offense and the defense. But think for a moment about what is realistic and the shrewdness necessary to both improve the team satisfy Tilman's thirst for LT savings while the talent-loaded and LT-leading Warriors remain the only team that looks insurmountable.

    What this team needs is to deal Knight and future asset(s) for a rotation-worthy big wing who is not a worse defender than Ennis and not a worse shooter than House/Green/Clark. Still, to have a roster that doesn't fatigue its players for end of games/series, you would need to add at least a decent buyout candidate to that or pray to god that Clark rebounds from his decline to become a legit backup 4.
     
  18. Karolik

    Karolik Member

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    We traded all our best defensive players except Paul for players that can’t play defense worth a lick and some that aren’t even on our team anymore because we thought we should chase big names instead of common sense
     
  19. don grahamleone

    don grahamleone Contributing Member

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    I feel the same. It would help this team tremendously to even have it reset to 15 or 16 seconds over the 14.
     
  20. LorneMalvo

    LorneMalvo Member

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    Just shutup. You've said a lot of dumb in this thread. It just stinks of conclusively dumb things in here. The Rockets are 5th on offense and rising while 27th on defense.
     

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