Is North Korea Preparing for Nuclear Test...

Extremely sketchy intelligence on this - but the break on the big missile test wasn't much better...

I'll update as more info is available.
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North Korea may be preparing nuclear bomb test

North Korea may be preparing an underground test for a nuclear bomb, ABC News said on Thursday, citing unidentified U.S. officials.

It quoted a senior military official as saying a U.S. intelligence agency had recently observed "suspicious vehicle movement" at a suspected North Korean test site.

A senior State Department official told the network: "It is the view of the intelligence community that a test is a real possibility."

Asked about the report, a senior U.S. official told Reuters: "We have no new evidence to support that."

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A bit more information on why US intelligence thinks this might happen. I believe the main point may be "What does he have to lose?"
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N. Korea Appears to Be Preparing for Nuclear Test

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A senior military official told ABC News that a U.S. intelligence agency has recently observed "suspicious vehicle movement" at a suspected North Korean test site.

The activity includes the unloading of large reels of cable outside P'unggye-yok, an underground facility in northeast North Korea. Cables can be used in nuclear testing to connect an underground test site to outside observation equipment. The intelligence was brought to the attention of the White House last week.

Even before this most recent intelligence, there has been growing concern within the U.S. government that North Korea has been moving toward a nuclear test. North Korea is believed to have enough nuclear material to build as many as a dozen nuclear bombs, but it has never tested one. A successful test would remove any doubt that North Korea is a nuclear power.

"What does he have to lose?" asked one senior military official, referring to North Korean leader Kim Jong Il.

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Underground nuclear tests are notoriously difficult to detect ahead of time. U.S. intelligence agencies, for example, failed to predict nuclear tests by India and Pakistan in 1998.

Officials say it is possible that North Korea may either be putting on a show for American spy satellites to get attention, or may conduct a nuclear test in an entirely different location.

Some analysts believe Kim Jong Il may feel the only way to be taken seriously is to prove that North Korea is a nuclear power. Officials acknowledge that nobody really knows Kim Jong Il's intentions, but there is a belief among analysts that he is upset about the recent U.N. resolution condemning his missile tests and upset with the Chinese for supporting that resolution.

"It is the view of most in the community that there is a 50-50 chance North Korea will conduct a nuclear test by the end of the year," said one analyst.

Asked what the United States would do in response to a nuclear test, a senior U.S. official told ABC News, "We would try to hermetically seal the hermit kingdom."

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Here we go...
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North Korea says will conduct nuclear test

SEOUL (Reuters) - An increasingly isolated
North Korea said on Tuesday it would conduct its first-ever nuclear test, blaming a U.S. "threat of nuclear war and sanctions" for forcing its hand.

The statement by North Korea's foreign ministry, carried on the official KCNA news agency, was condemned by neighboring Japan as "unacceptable" and caused
South Korea to increase its security alert.

The announcement confirms weeks of rumors the communist state was planning a test and came amid increasingly sour relations with the outside world after it test-fired missiles in July.

"The U.S. extreme threat of a nuclear war and sanctions and pressure compel the DPRK (North Korea) to conduct a nuclear test, an essential process for bolstering nuclear deterrent, as a corresponding measure for defense," the statement said.

But it added that North Korea would never use nuclear weapons first and would "do its utmost to realize the denuclearization of the peninsula and give impetus to the world-wide nuclear disarmament and the ultimate elimination of nuclear weapons."

Analysts say North Korea probably has enough fissile material to make six to eight nuclear bombs but probably does not have the technology to make one small enough to mount on a missile.

Pyongyang's latest and, to date, most extreme saber-rattling was most probably aimed at trying to force the United States into direct talks and end a painful financial crackdown on impoverished North Korean offshore bank accounts, analysts said.

Japan's new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, said any nuclear test by North Korea would be unacceptable.

"North Korea needs to realize that unless it responds to the concerns of international society, its situation will only worsen," he told reporters.

DANGEROUS

The North Korean statement comes as Abe readies for talks with leaders in China and South Korea from this weekend.

Officials in China -- North Korea's main suppliers of aid -- gave no immediate official response to the report.

Top South Korean security officials met and issued a statement outlining the increased security alert, the presidential Blue House said.

Both Koreas, China and Japan are members of six-nation talks trying to end Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program. The two other members are Russia and the United States.

North Korea walked out of the talks almost a year ago and has refused to return until the United States ends its financial squeeze.

"Pyongyang has been increasingly controlled by hardliners in the past months and its policies and words have become more and more extreme. The situation is really dangerous," said Shi Yinhong, professor of International Relations at Renmin University in Beijing.

"I think by the statement they want to show their resolve to conduct a nuclear test. It's not that they will do that this month or next month. Technological preparations take time. But they want to tell the world that a political decision has been made and they will just do it."

North Korea has a long history of triggering diplomatic crises to get itself heard.

A nuclear test is certain to be seen as another attempt by North Korea to force the United States into direct negotiations, something it has long pushed for but which Washington has rejected until Pyongyang returns to the six-party talks.

"North Korea thinks it has no other option but to press the United States to have bilateral negotiations with them. North Korea has nothing to lose by conducting a nuclear test," Chang Myung-soon, an expert on North Korea's military, said.

"It wouldn't care if its people will starve due to toughened economic sanctions, and a military attack on North Korea will be really difficult considering opposition from South Korea, China and Russia," he said.

INCREASING THREAT

North Korea blamed the United States for the latest ratcheting up of tension on the Korean peninsula, which has been divided for more than 50 years after a war for which no formal peace treaty has ever been signed.

It accused Washington of trying to topple its government with the financial crackdown. The United States said the measures are aimed at curbing illicit activity, such as counterfeiting.

"The U.S. daily increasing threat of a nuclear war and its vicious sanctions and pressure have caused a grave situation on the Korean peninsula in which the supreme interests and security of our state are seriously infringed upon and the Korean nation stands at the crossroads of life and death," the North Korean statement said.

Renmin University's Shi said: "They are also using this as a means to scare the United States and its allies to ease the sanctions and pressures imposed on it. Their primary concern is the financial sanctions."

John Swensen-Wright, associate professor at the Chatham House think tank in London, said the announcement appeared to be timed for the upcoming congressional elections in the United States.

"The mid-term elections are only five or six weeks away. I don't think it's any coincidence that the North Korean leadership has chosen this time to put maximum pressure on Washington," he said.

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