Is Andrew Bogut coming out this year?

I don't see him possibly returning. He's a top 3 pick at the moment, and I don't think he's going to get much better by staying in college. Raw wouldn't be the right term to describe him.

Also, I've always felt that foreign players care relatively little about NCAA titles. They're coming here with the following in mind:
1. The opportunity to make millions in the richest league in the world
2. The Olympics and World Games are far more important than an American (pro or college) championship.

I'm not saying they don't want to win, but it's not anywhere near as important to the average foreign player as it is to your average American player.

He's coming out.

Evan

 

Interesting question. Let's talk about it, here is some fact.

He will probably be the #1 pick this year.

He turned down European contracts because he wants to go to the NBA.

Physically he's already a man among children in college basketball.

Skill wise he's more skilled than the vast majority of the point guards in the NCAA.

He was already honored at the "senior's blanket" ceremony as a sophomore.

Bogut's coach said he's not illusional so he encourages Bogut to go to the NBA after this season.

He said publicly that his first choice is to play for the Jazz, who happened to be bad this year with a chance to land him.

His last name isn't Leinart.

...

OK, I think he might stay in college.

 

Bogut has dodged questions about entering the draft all year. At the MWC tournament a couple of weeks ago he suddenly began to speak very candidly about entering the draft. I would give him about a 2% chance of NOT going pro.

As for wanting to go to the j*zz, Bogut did say he would love to play here for them . But the guy is from Melbourne. I've only been there once and was admittedly very young but to my memory it was not much of a city.

He comes to th US and the first place he sees is SLC. Its ok here, but once Bogut sees the allure of other cities, he will doubtlessly rescind that statement.

 

Speaking of which, did this get an ink around H-town?

Bogut's dad came to Denver to watch the conference tourny. Sometime during his visit he was inteveiwed by a member of the be local press. He told this member of the press that he had received a revelation from God that his son would one day be the greatest basketball player EVER. The reporter asked some sort of follow-up question and Mr. Bogut confirmed that he really had had a "revelation" to that effect.


Religion is very close to people around here and comes up in conversation quite often, but that's one hell of a revelation!!!

 

Just wondering out loud. Are the JAZZ tanking this season just ot get a chance at Bogut? They haven't lost this many games in 30 years or more.

Boozer, Bogut, and Kirilinko would make a formidable front line as well as a nice name for a law firm.

 

It's a dilemma for the Jazz. If they have a chance to take Bogut, the local kid and a multi-talented big man, it'd be crazy not to take him. However, they already have Okur locked up long term, who is kind of similar to Bogut, although Bogut has a much better passing game and alot more potential.

Their need is clearly at point guard. They played through their season with Keith McCleod, a NBA castaway (much like Carlos Arroyo). They are not winning with him. Their backup, Raul Lopez, is in fact a very very talented young point guard. However, he blows out his right knee every two month, and his left knee every four month. There is absolutely no way you can rely on someone that fragile. So, their best bet is to get Chris Paul. If they don't get Paul, they will probably shoot for Reymond Felton, the UNC point guard.

Anyway, if they end up with the top pick, it'd be a pain for them to decide.

 

They'd take Bogut and swing a trade for a point. They don't want a Chris Paul type point. They want a coaches pet who will distribute and play defense.

 

Tooting my own horn but Felton is just that. Paul will get drafted higher than Raymond, but Raymond will be the better PG.

 

My thoughts on Bogut from tonight, seeing him in person:

He's damn good.

The bad: Defensively, he's last year's Dirk Nowitzki. He creates a few things because he's 7 feet tall, but he stands around, and can be beat pretty easily. He's supposed to be a pretty good shooter, but he sure didn't show it tonight. Didn't really shoot from the field much, but his free throw stroke was way off tonight, and his form looked kind of funky.

The good: Everything else. His rebounding is fantastic- good nose for the ball, extremely sticky hands. His post game was tremendous, he plays hard, can beat his man off the dribble, and just has a natural feel for the offensive side of the game. Hard guy to compare- I'd say Troy Murphy, but he's got a better post game and didn't shoot jumpers as much. He doesn;t seem to be foul prone (because he doesn't really play defense), but he committed one thoughtless foul on the big 7-3 kid who is a zero on offense 12 feet from the basket. I was really impressed with his interior play.

He flops. A lot. Drew 4 charges by my count, and complains about everything (again, Nowitzki-esque). Tailor made for Utah.

He was Utah's team tonight. I don't think he was taken out of the game. He plays hard, and if he and the rest of his team could shoot free throws and finish layups, they probably should have won tonight.

 

NIKE -
I was there also and you're pretty close in your analysis. I know it's blasphemous in this day and age, but Bogut really could use another year of college IMHO. The Kentucky Centers weren't much to speak of and Kentucky didn't really double Bogut quickly (usually not at all) and they neutralized everything but his dunks.

I also don't see Bogut strictly as an NBA back to the basket player. More a perimeter PF like Gasol or Dirk. One thing Bogut is going to have to learn quickly or he will get eaten alive in the NBA. On any of his back to the basket low post moves, he never varies his tempo. Almost all elite NAB PF's...Dirk, Gasol, KG, Duncan... have a stutter movement when dribbling. Bogut never varied his tempo and hardly ever turned baseline.

 

Gasol is not a perimeter PF. He gets most of his points in the paint with an occasional short jumper. He rarely takes an outside shot.

 

I think your missing my point (and I'm guessing that while you've seen Gasol, you've not seen Bogot).

The fact that Gasol gets most of his points on "short jumpers in the paint" does not qualify him as a traditional back to the basket PF. I didn't intend that Pau was perimeter in the same sense as Dirk. Compared to traditional PF's, Gasol starts his moves further away from the basket and will finesse his way to a shot avoiding contact if possible. That's why Gasol is not in the NBA Top 50 in FTA's per 48 minutes.

 

Bogut is going to be a center in the NBA

 

I agree Bogut would be better with a year of college, but I don't think he can improve his draft stock too much.

Bogut got Randolph Morris in trouble really quickly. I think the 7-3 kid just threw him off. I kind of like the Gasol comparison. Wasn't one of his dunks off a baseline spin move? I agree his timing was very predictable, though he may have a little trickery in his bag of tricks because he didn't get his shot blocked in the 2nd half like he did a few times in the first iirc. If he doesn't already, Bogut needs to learn to hit the jumper when his man plays off of him. In this game, based on his free throws, his touch isn't all that good.

Re: Gasol and free throws...He actually would be #9 in FTA/48, but doesn't qualify.

I think playing Bogut at the 4 would be a luxury for most teams, given the dearth of centers.

 

Bogut was listed 6'10" a year ago. I don't know how he is 7' now. But he does look big.

 

bogut will play in the paint, whether that is at the 5 or 4 is irrelevant

btw he hinted to australian newpapers today he will have an announcement real soon and it will likely be declaring for the draft

 

I think his name is Alleyne. Wasn't he amazing, not in performance, but in stature. I bet he could easily out reach Yao with both stand flat footed. I couldn't believe how long his arms were.