I guess we're now less than two weeks away from finding out how much polls really matter in the Iowa Caucus , and seeing who will get one "of the three tickets out of Iowa". So what do you guys think will happen in Iowa on the 19th ?? I think there is going to be a big upset there...
John Kerry, or perhaps John Edwards... Iowa Democrats are not strongly supporting Howard Dean as some would have us believe. Joe Lieberman is not participating in the Caucus, though I dont think he would do well there if he did. The person who screwed up big there though is Wesley Clark, because he could have competed there I believe, he has the money (and staff) to do so. If Gephardt was to finish third or far second in Iowa, his candidacy is done. Dean can afford a set back in Iowa, but it will dent him in New Hampshire. John Kerry will need a strong showing in Iowa, the kind where he becomes the "comeback kid" and I think that would give him a major boost in New Hampshire. It's all about being the "un Dean " now though. If Kerry or Gephardt do well there, they become the "un-dean" if JOhn Edwards finishes strong he becomes a strong "un dean", especially with South Carolina only a couple weeks later. With the recent endorsement of Jack Black, Edwards campagin has received new life...
Poll shows Democratic race tightening Bush's approval rating increases Wednesday, January 7, 2004 Posted: 8:28 AM EST (1328 GMT) Howard Dean leads the Democrats in a recent national poll, but Wesley Clark is closing the gap among respondents. (CNN) -- Less than two weeks before the Iowa caucuses, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean remains on top of the Democratic heap, with retired Gen. Wesley Clark picking up ground, according to a recent national poll. But whoever wins the Democratic presidential nomination will then have to contend with President Bush, who is enjoying healthy approval ratings. (Interactive: Some poll results) A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll interviewed 1,028 adult Americans between Friday and Monday to gather opinions on the presidential candidates and the issues they face. The results show the Democratic race tightening while Bush rebounds from lower approval ratings of a month ago. In a poll in December, only half the respondents approved of the way Bush was handling Iraq. In the new poll, 61 percent of respondents said they approved. For world affairs, Bush's rating improved from 53 percent to 58 percent. He also gained ground on the economy, with 54 percent saying they approved of his job on the issues, opposed to 48 percent a month ago. Overall, the poll showed Bush with a 60 percent approval rating. According to CNN political analyst Bill Schneider, it's good news for Bush but nothing to indicate a definite victory in November. Bush's father had a 46 percent approval rating in January 1992 but lost his bid for re-election. Jimmy Carter, who started out his 1980 re-election campaign on a high of 56 percent also lost his campaign, due in large part to the Iranian hostage crisis. Ronald Reagan enjoyed a 52 percent approval rating going into his successful 1984 re-election, and Bill Clinton won re-election though he started 1996 at 42 percent. "If you're a Republican, you look at these figures and say, 'Look at that, Bush is doing better than all of them, woo-hoo!'" Schneider said. But a Democrat "might respond, 'Oh, it's just a temporary bounce Bush is getting from the capture of Saddam Hussein.' " The former Iraqi leader was captured by U.S. troops in mid-December. Bush's overall approval rating instantly rose to 63 percent, the highest point since June. Democrats still campaigning The Democrats, however, have to battle among themselves before facing Bush. Dean has a closer competitor than he did last month, according to the poll. He has the support of 24 percent of registered Democrats who responded. In December, Dean had 27 percent. The difference, however, is within the poll's margin of error of plus-or-minus 5 percentage points. Clark had the support of only 12 percent of registered Democrats in December and is now within 5 percentage points of Dean, with 20 percent. "Clark is the only Democratic candidate to show momentum in the past month," Schneider said. "The attacks on Dean from his fellow Democrats could be taking a toll on the front-runner." Other candidates showed little improvement. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts picked up 4 percentage points and has the support of 11 percent of Democrats polled. Sen. Joseph Lieberman fell from 12 percent to 10 percent. The remaining candidates polled lower. Any of the poll numbers could change once voters pull the curtain in the election booth. Only 35 percent of respondents said they were certain to vote for the candidate they support so far. Sixty-four percent say they may change their mind. The first votes in the 2004 campaign will be cast in Iowa's caucuses January 19. New Hampshire holds the nation's first primary January 27.
The results of the Iowa caucus mean diddly. Clinton finished 3rd in the Iowa caucus in 1992. Need I say more?
Actually, yes. You mentioned one example. If it wasnt for the Iowa caucus , Jimmy Carter would not have been president. Now, although winning Iowa isnt as important as it was for him, if a candidate like Howard Dean, Dick Gephardt , or John Kerry does not do well there they will severely damage their campaigns. With the horce race news media we have today, if John Kerry, for example, beats their "expectations" he will get a HUGE boost for the next week leading up to the New Hampshire Primary. Iowa will make or break Gephardts campaign altogether. Of course its important.
Don't forget his endorsement from Hootie and the Blowfish! I really don't get why Iowa and New Hampshire have so little electoral votes (11 between them) yet they have so much say in who gets elected.
If you remember the 1992 campaign, Clinton looked like a loser for a quite a while in the primaries. Watch "The Warroom", it's an interesting little flick.
I really don't get why Iowa and New Hampshire have so little electoral votes (11 between them) yet they have so much say in who gets elected. That's what I don't understand. It's silly that these few states with no people in them go so far in determining who wins primary nominations, while states like Texas and California have so little impact. I don't think the majority of Democratic candidates even have an organization here in Texas. If it comes down to a two-man contest, someone would have benefitted a ton from having Texas' 30+ votes.
Texas is something like 55/45 Republican/Democrat so it's a pointless fight. Did Clinton win Texas when Perot split the conservative vote? Otherwise a lost cause.
I just saw this article on MSNBC and thought it was pretty interesting. Poll: 4-way race for Dems in Iowa Kerry, Dean, Gephardt, Edwards in statistical tie By Tom Curry National affairs writer MSNBC DODGE, Iowa - After being written off only two weeks ago as a near certain loser in the Iowa caucuses, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry is gaining ground, according to the latest Reuters/MSNBC/ Zogby poll released Thursday. In the latest rolling three-day poll, Kerry registered 21.6 percent with Dean and Gephardt both at 20.9 percent. North Carolina Sen. John Edwards gained two percentage points to 17.1 percent, well within the poll’s margin of error, putting all four top contenders in a statistical tie. It latest data suggested that most of the undecided voters in Iowa are migrating to Kerry and Edwards, the two contenders here with clear momentum at this point. “It’s a three-way tie, and Kerry and Gephardt are now tied among union voters as Dean’s labor support slips,” Zogby told Reuters. With Edwards continuing to gain ground “this race is actually a four-way statistical dead heat. “We might see these candidates exchanging leads all the way to the end,” Zogby said, with 11 percent of likely caucus-goers still undecided and many switching their support as they take a harder look at the choices ahead of Monday’s contest. Interviews by MSNBC.com with rank-and-file voters in Iowa find a clear reaction against negative ads and attacks being fired by Dean at Gephardt and visa versa. Dean is currently on Iowa’s TV airwaves with an ad attacking Gephardt, Kerry, and Edwards for supporting the war in Iraq. The possibility of a virtual four way tie in Monday nights precinct caucuses raises the stakes for the Jan. 27 New Hampshire primary. In recent days retired general Wesley Clark has made a substantial surge in New Hampshire, as measured by polling and the size of the crowds at his events. Heated attacks All of the candidates plan an extensive schedule of campaigning in Iowa in the race’s final days. Dean and Gephardt have been exchanging heated attacks in the race to the finish. MSNBC/REUTERS ZOGBY IOWA POLL Four way race: Kerry leads by 1 point 1/10-12 1/11-13 1/12-14 Kerry 17% 21% 22% Dean 28% 24% 21% Gephardt 23% 21% 21% Edwards 14% 15% 17% Lieberman 1% 1% 1% Clark 2% 3% 3% Kucinich 3% 2% 3% Sharpton .1% .1% .1% Braun 1% 1% 1% Undecided 12% 13% 11% • Full poll results -- Margin of error +/- 4.5% • Printable version The rolling poll of 502 likely caucus-goers was taken Monday through Wednesday and has a margin of error of 4.5 percent. The poll will continue each day until Monday’s caucuses. The polling was concluded before Wednesday night’s news that former Illinois Sen. Carol Moseley Braun would drop out of the race and throw her support to Dean. Braun’s move leaves eight Democrats vying for the right to challenge President Bush in November. Dean and Gephardt have battled back and forth for months for the top spot in polls in Iowa, the first big contest in the nominating race, but the late charges by Edwards and Kerry, a senator from Massachusetts, have scrambled the Democratic picture. Dean, the former Vermont governor, still holds a large but shrinking lead over Clark in polls in New Hampshire. Gephardt, the congressman from neighboring Missouri who won Iowa during his first presidential bid in 1988, must win Iowa to remain in the race. Related story Full results from the MSNBC poll Clark and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich were at 3 percent in the latest poll, while Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman and Braun were at 1 percent, with former civil rights activist Al Sharpton at less than 1 percent. Clark and Lieberman are not competing in Iowa. Polling in Iowa is complicated by the unique nature of the caucus system, which requires participants to leave their homes on a typically bitter cold night and gather with neighbors for hours before publicly declaring their support for a candidate. The ability to identify and turn out supporters is critical to each of the campaigns. The Zogby poll only included respondents who said they were likely to attend the caucuses. Reuters contributed to this report
Texas is something like 55/45 Republican/Democrat so it's a pointless fight. Did Clinton win Texas when Perot split the conservative vote? Otherwise a lost cause. Texas is a lost cause for the general election... but *someone* has to win the Texas democratic primary... and if this race stays close through February, those 30+ votes would have been extremely useful.
I really don't get why Iowa and New Hampshire have so little electoral votes (11 between them) yet they have so much say in who gets elected. Ideologically, they may very well represent a good cross section of American Democrats. Also voters from smaller states may have more time to spend sorting through the candidates than bigger, more cosmopolitan states like New York or California. A negative that I have heard is that racially the voters in Iowa and NH are more white than the rest of the nation.
