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Clips/Roxfan · Feb 13, 2010

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insi...llinger_john&page=hollingerwizardsmavs-100213

Updated: February 13, 2010, 8:02 PM ET
Will deal put Mavs over the top?How much does this trade help the Mavs and Wiz?

That depends, writes John Hollinger

ESPN.com

Archive DALLAS -- Let's cut right to the chase: I like this deal better for both teams if it's not the last one they make in the final few days before the trade deadline.

From the Dallas side, the big question at the moment is this: Does the acquisition of Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood put the Mavericks over the top in the West?

If it doesn't, it seems a fairly limited impact for a $30 million expense -- the Mavs were just as capable of losing in the second round without Butler and Haywood. If it does, on the other hand, it's the kind of creative deal-making that has enabled the Mavs to extend their window as contenders despite their key players getting rather long in the tooth.
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Scarface281 · Feb 13, 2010

Here is the article:

DALLAS -- Let's cut right to the chase: I like this deal better for both teams if it's not the last on they make in the final few days before the trade deadline.
From the Dallas side, the big question at the moment is this: Does the acquisition of Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood put the Mavericks over the top in the West?

If it doesn't, it seems a fairly limited impact for a $30 million expense -- the Mavs were just as capable of losing in the second round without Butler and Haywood. If it does, on the other hand, it's the kind of creative deal-making that has enabled the Mavs to extend their window as contenders despite their key players getting rather long in the tooth.

The deal -- which sends Josh Howard, Drew Gooden and spare parts Quinton Ross and James Singleton to Washington for Butler, Haywood and DeShawn Stevenson -- improves Dallas in a couple of key areas, but not cheaply. For Dallas, the bill comes to $13.6 million in payroll and another $13.6 million in luxury tax for the 2010-11 season, when they're paying the contracts of Butler ($10.56 million) and Stevenson ($4.15 million) instead of Ross' $1.15 million salary. The deal also adds $1.2 million in salary and another $3.2 in luxury tax for the Mavs this season, although they may be able to reduce those numbers if they can agree to a buyout with Stevenson. All told, the final bill should come in at about $30 million.

So how much better does that lofty sum make Dallas? Based on PER, it doesn't move the needle much. Our Trade Machine analysis is that the swap improves Dallas by only one win for the remainder of the season, largely because this season the difference in performance between Butler and Howard is much smaller than generally perceived. In fact, statistically, there's been virtually no difference between the two players over the past four seasons, including this one, in which Butler's numbers have been down just as sharply as Howard's.

For the Mavs, the success of the trade might come down to the names in agate type, not the headliners. That is, Haywood and Gooden may be fairly similar in terms of PER, but look at plus-minus stats and a very different picture emerges. According to Basketballvalue.com, Dallas gives up 11.25 points per 100 possessions more with Gooden on the court, one of the worst marks in basketball. Much of that is a result of his role in the rotation -- he's either playing as an undersized center or replacing Dallas' best player, Dirk Nowitzki -- and it indicates that he's hardly a great fit on the Mavs roster.

On the other hand, Haywood's plus-numbers over the last half-decade have been spectacular. This year, for instance, Washington is 8.46 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court. The one cautionary flag here is that since he was the only Wizard who could defend to save his life, his impact was probably overstated. At the same time, he's certainly a major defensive upgrade over Gooden, particularly against the types of big men that Dallas will likely have to face to get through the Western Conference playoff gauntlet.

That said, the deal overall still leaves me with more questions than answer. How is Butler going to defend opposing shooting guards when he can't even guard small forwards? How will the Mavs juggle minutes up front between Haywood and Erick Dampier, especially when they're likely to play extended stretches without a traditional center and Nowitzki playing the 5?

And most importantly, is the marginal improvement offered by a Gooden-for-Haywood upgrade really enough for a Mavs team that had outscored opponents by only 1.7 points per game on the season and is projected to finish with 49 wins and a No. 5 seed in the West?

As a result, my follow-up question is whether the Mavs are done dealing. If they turn around and swap Dampier's mammoth expiring deal (he's technically under contact next year but his salary is unguaranteed) for a quality shooting guard, I'd feel much better about the entire exercise. But at least one front office source I talked to expects the Mavs to wait until summer before trading Dampier.

Without such a second trade, however, it appears the Mavs are spending a total of $30 million just to improve their odds of making the second round. Even after this deal, I don't like their chances to beat Denver or Utah, let alone the likes of the Lakers./quote]
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dude1394 · Feb 13, 2010

Scarface281 said:

Here is the article:

That said, the deal overall still leaves me with more questions than answer. How is Butler going to defend opposing shooting guards when he can't even guard small forwards?
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Confusing to me, is he basically saying Caron doesn't play any defense? That's the only take on this that I can understand. I would expect that if there is a hot-shot 2-guard that marion will guard him and Caron will get the small forward. If there is a hot-shot sf then marion will get him and Caron will take the 2.

How will the Mavs juggle minutes up front between Haywood and Erick Dampier, especially when they're likely to play extended stretches without a traditional center and Nowitzki playing the 5?
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This is showing his ignorance and he should think better of it before speaking. Dirk has played very, very little center this year. The best thing about this deal is getting another true defensive center in the mix since Dampier has been hurting.

And most importantly, is the marginal improvement offered by a Gooden-for-Haywood upgrade really enough for a Mavs team that had outscored opponents by only 1.7 points per game on the season and is projected to finish with 49 wins and a No. 5 seed in the West?
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Hollinger really does try hard to make his comments fit his numbers. There is no doubt that the mavs have been playing really poorly since Dampier went down, but basing the current team on the current 1.7 ppg when they've been lousy this month seems a little bit of a stretch.

As a result, my follow-up question is whether the Mavs are done dealing. If they turn around and swap Dampier's mammoth expiring deal (he's technically under contact next year but his salary is unguaranteed) for a quality shooting guard, I'd feel much better about the entire exercise. But at least one front office source I talked to expects the Mavs to wait until summer before trading Dampier.
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This also shows Hollingers ignorance of the mavs (he should probably talk to stein more). The mavs are going to have Damps contract to try and take a SNT for a very,very good player in the 2010 off-season, they will not use it until then. The Caron Butler + Dampier makes that more likely and Haywood allows them to stabilize their center position when/if they get something for Dampier.

A_3PO · Feb 13, 2010

I like Hollinger but think he's understating the upside for the Mavs. If Butler comes in motivated to play because he actually has something to play for now, the Mavs will improve significantly. Going from a totally dysfunctional situation with the Wizards to the Mavs should light a fire in Butler.

Haywood will push Dampier to the bench. I expect Haywood to play hard and hungry.

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