Insider Request: Chad Ford blog: Why Spurs, Mavs are in deep trouble

Anyone have this yet?

 

Home-court disadvantage
Here's another reason that the regular season is overrated. You fight all year to get home-court advantage in the playoffs and within 48 minutes it evaporates into nothing.

The Spurs' loss on Sunday to the Nuggets was flat-out stunning. They had only lost three games all season at home and now find themselves in a terrible predicament -- they have to win one in Denver.

The only team that has been better at home than the Spurs this year is the Nuggets. Yes, they lost 10 games at home this season. But since George Karl took over the team they've lost a total of one home game -- a 106-101 loss to Phoenix on March 28.

The Nuggets are the only team in the league with a true physical home-court advantage. Teams get tired running in the mile-high air and Karl takes advantage of it. The Nuggets push the pace much harder at home, and by about midway through the third quarter, teams are out of gas.

The last time the Spurs played the Nuggets in Denver, on April 1, was a great example. The team went 7-for-22 in the fourth quarter and went nearly seven minutes without scoring a bucket from field. Granted, the team was without Tim Duncan, but this seems to be a general trend, regardless of who the Nuggets are playing.

The Nuggets home-court advantage may end up affecting Duncan more than anyone else. He's clearly not 100 percent right now. Duncan played 35 minutes on Sunday, seven more than he had in a month, and clearly was out of gas at the end, going 0-for-7 from the field in the fourth -- and that was in San Antonio.

It's way too early to write the Spurs off, but for those who were laughing when we predicted this might be the best first-round series in the playoffs, you might want to get serious. I picked the Spurs over the Nuggets for one reason -- the team just didn't lose at home.

Now that they've lost, the odds don't look so good. The Spurs were a very pedestrian 21-20 on the road this season. Against the other seven Western Conference playoff teams, they won exactly five of 14 games all season on the road.

The Mavericks' situation isn't quite as bad. The loss stings, but the Mavs were the second-best road team in the NBA this season, going 29-12.

But here's where the win hurts for the Mavs. Dallas has a rookie running the team from the sidelines and a rookie running the team on the court. Avery Johnson coached his first playoff game and starting point guard Jason Terry, along with back-up Devin Harris, played in their first playoff game ever on Saturday.

The Mavs' defense may be better than it was. Their future might be brighter. Their cap space more manageable. But this is the time of the year when the Mavs will miss Steve Nash the most.

They need someone with some experience to calm the team down both in the locker room and on the floor.

On Saturday it didn't happen. Johnson had to be restrained from physically going after referee Joey Crawford after the final buzzer sounded -- only to later admit that the officiating didn't have much to do with the final outcome. On the other side of the scorers' table, Jeff Van Gundy, the veteran of more than 70 playoff games, is as steady as you're going to get from a head coach.

Terry was efficient offensively, but had more turnovers than assists on Saturday. His Rockets' counterpart, Mike James, is no playoff star. But he does have a World Championship ring on his finger (albeit in spot duty for the Pistons last season) and stepped up huge for the Rockets on Saturday night.

The Mavericks still have the talent to come back and win this series. But without Nash or Don Nelson on the sidelines, I wonder whether they have the leadership.

http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/magazine/magBlog?id=2039748

 

You guys are fast! I was just about to post it.

 

Thanks JumpMan!!

I do not understand this quote?? How is the Mavs future brighter than the Rox ??

 

I think he means brighter than last years Mavs

 

The team that wins game 1 of a 7 game series in NBA playoff history is the winner of the series 78% of the time.

 

i'll still never figure out why avery johnson was so mad at the refs considering that the mavs shot free throws on almost every offensive possesion in the second half. a 42 to 20 free throw differential is insane.

 

I don't think he was comparing them to the Rockets. I think he was comparing this Mavs team to Mavs teams of recent seasons past.

 

Thanks for clarifying guys!! I read it way too fast...

I just re-read it and concur...

 

Oh no! Chad Ford is giving us props! Looks like we'll be blown out today.

 

I don't think you'll find many arguments here.

 

So is this Chad's round-about way of saying that he still picks the Mav's?

 

That's not much help. Winners of games 1 are usually the home team, and they're the home team because they have a better record, and they have a better record because they are a flat-out better team. What's the percentage when the road team wins game 1?

 

god,why cant he tlak about the rockets playing well? he did about denver

 

i know..i thought through that, too. that and the fact it also includes 8/1 and 7/2 series, as well. not just 5/4 ones. soooo..i agree...but i'm still glad that number plays that way!

 

I truly believe the best team wins every series, providing they're healthy. I'm interested in seeing what Avery plans to do to combat the Rockets Game 1 strat. My guess is he goes post-up to Nowitzki more often. That's not really Dirk's game though. If they don't figure out a way to contain McGrady though, it doesn't matter what Dirk goes for. JVG will keep milking that option until they prove they can defend him, and Josh Howard is not the answer.

 

Good question... anyone know?
We found out how meaningless all those numbers can be in '95. And it was a gas.

 

We seem to get so little HC advantage out of the TC I don't know if it really matters much.

As an aside, does anybody think that HC advantage doesn't seem to mean as much as it used to? It seems like back in the 80's it was a big deal w/ the Lakers, Celtics etc all being nearly unbeatable at home...it seems like when the Rox became road warriors in the mid-90's it set off an era where road wins were much more prevalent. Not sure if that stats bear this out.