http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7193174.stm [rquoter] Agencies see good year for Iraq Iraq faces a period of economic growth and political progress, according to assessments by the International Monetary Fund and the UN. The IMF sees 7% growth in 2008 and a similar rise next year, and says oil revenues from buoyant exports should be up by 200,000 barrels a day. The UN envoy to Iraq welcomed dialogue between the Sunni and Shia communities and praised the government's work. But analysts warn much depends on rapid progress in the next six to 12 months. Reporting from Baghdad, the BBC's Jonny Dymond says the IMF and UN statements amount to a coincidental chorus of approval that tops off what have been, by Iraq's dismal standards, a good few weeks. The change in the political mood is largely down to the passing of a law on Saturday, enabling some members of the Baath Party of Saddam Hussain to re-enter the military and bureaucracy, our correspondent says. They were barred from public service by one of the first acts of the US-run Coalition Provisional Administration. The law reversing that expulsion, combined with the sharp fall in violence in much of Iraq, has led to greater optimism. Oil-fuelled growth Mohsin Khan, director of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia department, said Iraqi GDP growth would likely top 7% this year and hold at between 7% and 8% next year. "Of course all of this is conditional on oil production expansion and the security situation improving," he said. On oil production, he forecast a rise of "at least" 200,000 barrels to 2.2m barrels per day. Anecdotal evidence, Mr Khan added, suggests there was also an "improvement in economic activity" in the second half of 2007, combined with an improvement in security. However, Iraq will "continue to need aid, particularly in the security area", the IMF official said. The UN's Staffan de Mistura said he would present a positive picture of progress in Iraq in a report to the UN Security Council despite earlier serious misgivings "At the beginning of [2007]... we were genuinely concerned by the lack of progress on national dialogue," he told Reuters news agency by telephone. "Today that has substantially changed. It has changed our mind from being worried or from being pessimistic." The UN report would, he said, "compliment" Iraq's government on its work at fostering reconciliation. "Iraq needs to maintain the momentum, 2008 is going to be a crucial year," Mr de Mistura added. Violence continued in Iraq on Wednesday as a woman suicide bomber killed eight people in Diyala Province, and three US soldiers were shot dead in Salahaddin Province. A wounded eyewitness in Khan Bani Saad, a town near Diyala's provincial capital Baquba, said the bomber had targeted a group of Shia worshippers. [/rquoter] hey batty- how does it feel to be on the wrong side in the defining struggle of our generation, and see the good guys winning?
1. The defining struggle of our generation is terrorism; Iraq was a self-inflicted struggle, as much as you might like to believe otherwise. In regards to terrorism, solving Iraq, at best, gets us back to where we were before the war. 2. Given the number of times you've touted predictions about Iraq and been wrong, don't you think it might be smart to wait until AFTER the results instead of simply touting another projection? 3. Did you actually read the article? 3 lines down you get this little nugget: But analysts warn much depends on rapid progress in the next six to 12 months. Over the past 5 years, how much rapid progress have you seen? The Iraq situation has a long, long way to go before playing out either way. Nonsense like this is no better than the doom-and-gloom from the other side.
It's nice to see both organizations tossing a little confidence Iraq's way, as it could help encourage more foreign investment. (And in fact, could be a calculated "prediction," if one wants to be cynical.) If anyone buys the news, could have a little positive feedback effect on the rebuild. What's not nice (and not surprising) to see is this vague nugget used as proof of anything or as a point in an "argument." Despite the GOP standard line about the evil libpigs, nobody wants bad things for Iraq. A bunch of people (including much more than evil, stupid liberals like me) think this Iraq invasion was a dumb thing to do, orthogonal to a real confrontation with global terrorism. I don't know why I wasted those keystrokes -- this never sinks in.
Basso... why let everyone know about your hot tip? You should take this info and invest your entire retirement money in Iraq. With great projections like this, what could go wrong? You could retire and live in a palace that would make us Saddam-lovers green with envy.
more good news : [rquoter]Iraq forces could control all provinces this year: U.S. Thu Jan 17, 2008 6:36pm EST By David Morgan WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Iraq's army and police could be ready to take over security in all 18 provinces by the end of this year as the U.S. military moves toward a less prominent role in the country, U.S. officials said on Thursday. "We look at it every month. We make recommendations. I think that if we continue along the path we're on now, we'll be able to do that by the end of 2008," Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, the No. 2 commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, said when asked when Iraqi forces could take the lead in all provinces. He said that a joint operation under way led by Iraqi troops and supported by U.S. troops against al Qaeda militants in the northern city of Mosul was a model for the future. "That's how I see our role frankly in the future here," he told Pentagon reporters via videolink from Baghdad. Iraqi security forces are now in control of nine provinces after assuming control of Iraqi's southern oil hub, Basra, in December. Iraqi forces are also expected to take control in Anbar province, a one-time insurgent stronghold, as early as March. The ability of Iraqi forces to take the lead in security operations is vital to President George W. Bush's plan to withdraw 20,000 U.S. troops by the middle of this year. The troops were sent to Iraq last year in a bid to quell sectarian violence in a war now in its sixth year. With U.S. troop levels up to about 155,000 now, violence levels have since dropped sharply. "All the evidence available to me now suggests we will be able to complete the drawdown," Defense Secretary Robert Gates told reporters separately. "(It) remains my hope that the pace of the drawdowns in the second half of the year will be what it was in the first half of the year," he said. Lt. Gen. James Dubik, commander of security transition in Iraq, told the U.S. House of Representatives Armed Services Committee on Thursday that the number of Iraqi security forces, or ISF, could exceed 580,000 by the end of the year, up from the current 500,000. But he also expressed caution about their abilities. "Force structure and capability still lack a certain maturity. The ISF have not yet achieved self reliance in all area of logistics, maintenance and life support," he told the panel. Odierno said he was confident the withdrawal of the five brigades will occur despite expectations for an upswing in insurgent attacks as militants respond to a new joint offensive known as Operation Phantom Phoenix. The operation has killed or captured 92 "high-value individuals, according to the U.S. military. "While we may see a short-term increase in violence in response to our operations in the weeks ahead, I expect Phantom Phoenix to contribute significantly to the population's security," Odierno said. Gates' hopes for further reductions in U.S. forces this year will depend on a March assessment by the U.S. commander in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus. "To predict now whether we can go lower or not is difficult and I would not want to make that prediction right now," Odierno said. But Gates said the U.S. mission in Iraq has begun its planned transition to a more supportive role that would focus on border security and combating al Qaeda in Iraq. "That's ultimately where we are headed, and we have begun that process of transition," he said.[/rquoter]
Thanks basso. I just moved the college funds into Iraqi dinars. Just think of the money I'll make as Iraq stabilizes and the dinar increases in value. I'll be able to send the kids to Harvard without any loans!
This is very good news, but if political progress isn't made it's fools gold. Without making the tough decisions necessary to bring Sunnis into the fold, the Iraqi government will waste all of the American effort and lives sacrificed to create the temporary stability. It's also a pipe dream to think Iraqi forces will control the whole country by the end of 2008. That U.S. spokesman was saying what people want to hear, which is the hallmark of this disastrous war.
My question is if the surge is so great why wasn't it done earlier? I will give credit that the surge seems to have improved the security situation but I think its premature to declare Iraq on the road to recovery. I think part of the problem was Iraq was so low that things could only go up.
typical liberal crap - looking for the negative and trying to negate any positive news. How do you libs live in that world of negativity?
No kidding. And the ignoramus, George W., who kept them running the show, while he did whatever it is Dubya does with his time. Impeach Bush.
We cannot ignore indeed, unless of course, you're a democrat, then you must do everything in your power to change the subject. [rquoter]Iraq more secure, needs political consensus: U.N. Mon Jan 21, 2008 3:05pm EST By Louis Charbonneau UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - The United Nations' chief envoy in Iraq gave a mixed report on Monday on the situation, saying security had improved but an Iraqi political consensus was needed for a long-term reduction in violence. "We cannot ignore the recent improvements both in the security and political situation in Iraq," Staffan de Mistura, head of the U.N. Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), said in a address to the Security Council. Reasons for the reduced level of violence include the increased presence of U.S. and other troops, a ceasefire declared by Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's Mehdi Army militia and increased cooperation with Iraq's neighbors, he said. However, "absent a political consensus on the most fundamental elements of the Iraqi state -- currently tenuous -- the Iraqis will achieve no lasting solution on the reduction of violence," he warned the council. Iraq's ambassador to the United Nations, Hamid al-Bayati, told the council "the Iraqi government is determined to continue its efforts to achieve national reconciliation to reinforce social cohesion and to avoid a civil war." De Mistura said the Iraqi parliament's approval of a law allowing some members of Saddam Hussein's Baath party to return to government jobs was a significant political reform that could help improve Sunni-Shi'ite ties. The law is the first of a series of measures Washington had been pressing Iraq's Shi'ite-led government to pass in an effort to draw the minority Sunni Arab community that held sway under Saddam closer into the political process. U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad also described an improved security situation, which he said was largely the result of the "surge" of 30,000 additional troops Washington sent last year. While de Mistura praised Iraq's neighbors for cooperating, Khalilzad accused neighboring Syria and Iran of not keeping promises to do more to stop violent attacks in Iraq. "Foreign terrorists and suicide bombers still enter Iraq through Syria," Khalilzad said in his speech. He said Damascus must do more to stop them, saying it should enforce a stricter visa policy, detain those who aid militants, tighten border security and share information. "The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps continues to train, equip and finance Shi'ite extremists, despite reported assurances to Prime Minister (Nuri) al-Maliki that Iran will cease lethal aid," Khalilzad said. 'THE MOST DANGEROUS PLACE' The Security Council last year called on the United Nations to step up its role in Iraq through efforts to promote reconciliation between the country's factions and boost ties with its neighbors. U.N. staff in Iraq are slated to increase. After the August 2003 bombing of U.N. headquarters in Iraq, which killed 15 U.N. staff and seven visitors, the United Nations slashed its activities in the country to a minimum. De Mistura said he and his team were well aware of the risks involved in expanding the U.N. presence in Iraq. "It's probably the most dangerous place in the world for the U.N. to operate," he told a news conference. More recently, 17 U.N. staff were among at least 41 people killed in two bombings in Algiers on December 11. A group called Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb claimed responsibility. In a report on UNAMI last week, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said it was "encouraging" that Iraqi leaders in Baghdad and the northern Kurdish region had begun cooperating with de Mistura to defuse tensions. Last year de Mistura helped persuade Kurdish lawmakers to delay a referendum to decide the fate of Kirkuk, an oil-rich city claimed by both Kurds and Arabs. Analysts worry that such a vote could spark bloodshed and draw in neighboring Turkey, which has a large Kurdish minority.[/rquoter]
