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If you're in charge, do you let Gerrit Cole walk or pay him?

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Marteen, Sep 18, 2019.

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Do you let Gerrit Cole walk or pay him?

Poll closed Sep 30, 2019.
  1. Pay the man.

    91.9%
  2. Let him walk.

    8.1%
  1. Jeremy Williams

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    It’s not next year. It is the effect of being cash poor for the next 5-8 years.
     
  2. Jeremy Williams

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    Sorry, but the real dark side is the money. This is a business first and foremost.
     
  3. sealclubber1016

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    Correa won't factor into that either. He's a goner just like Cole.
     
  4. Jeremy Williams

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    Depends on a lot of factors when that time comes.
     
  5. CinematicFusion

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    Can’t sign Correa long term with a back injury
     
  6. Jeremy Williams

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    Too soon.
     
  7. CinematicFusion

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    Two years of a back injury. Agree, way too soon to even think about long term contract with him.
     
  8. ApolloRLB

    ApolloRLB Member

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    Pay him.

    Pay tax in 2020 and 2021 then back under threshold in 2022 when Verlander and Greinke come off the books.

    Manage amount of tax by trading Reddick and letting Miley, Joe Smith, Brantley, and Gurriel walk when their contracts expire.
     
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  9. Marteen

    Marteen Member

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    I think he’s a goner, but the reasons for paying him:

    - Gerrit Coles don’t grow on trees, I don’t care how good player development is.

    - If your goal is to win, it’s better if he’s on the team rather than not.

    - Not make the same mistake like the Astros did with Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson.

    - Potentially disarming the New York Yankees, who will eventually have to address their starting pitching this off-season win or lose.

    I also got to thinking. Emotions do get the best of us sometimes on keeping players and fan favorites (see Marwin, Evan Gattis, Dallas Keuchel, Tony Kemp, Charlie Morton, etc). What if Gerrit Cole was on another team? Would we say the Astros should go after him in free agency? Some of us, including me, would probably say hell no ($$$$$).
     
  10. bigdaddy

    bigdaddy Contributing Member
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    deleted
     
    #150 bigdaddy, Sep 21, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2019
  11. bigdaddy

    bigdaddy Contributing Member
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    This is Luhnow’s philosophy I believe, but his ability to trade for Greinke shows that he can look outside of his box. I would love to see them keep all of them but reality is they won’t.
     
  12. Jeremy Williams

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    Out of the 25 players on the active roster, here are the ones we will need to fill next year:

    1. Joe Smith
    2. Wade Miley
    3. Gerrit Cole
    4. Hector Rondon
    5. Robinson Chirinos
    6. Will Harris
    7. Martin Maldonado
    8. Collin McHugh (if you include him in the 25)

    Of the remaining 18 players on the active roster for 2020:

    1. Verlander 33M
    2. Greinke 35M-10.3M=24.7M
    3. Brantley 16M
    4. Gurriel 8.4M
    5. Pressly 8.75M
    6. Reddick 13M
    7. Altuve 29M
    8. Bregman 13M
    9. Osuna ARB (est guess 8.5M) [2M raise]
    10.McCullers ARB (est guess 5M) [0.9M raise]
    11. Springer ARB (est guess 14M) [2M raise]
    12. Correa ARB (est guess 7M) [2M raise]
    13. Peacock ARB (est guess 4M) [0.89M raise]
    14. Marisnick ARB (est guess 3.25M) [1.29M raise]
    15. Diaz ARB (est guess 3.25M) [1.25M raise]
    16. Biagini ARB (est guess 1.5M) [0.6M raise]
    17. Devenski ARB (est guess 2.62M) [team option]
    18. Sanchez ARB (est guess 5.5M) [1.6M raise]

    At minimum, we need to add 7 spots:

    19. Tucker Pre-ARB (est guess 600K)
    20. James Pre-ARB (est guess 600K)
    21. CATCHER (Maybe re-sign Chirinos (est guess 7.5M)
    22. CATCHER (Maybe re-sign Maldonado (est guess 4.5M)
    23. SP (Maybe re-sign Miley (est guess 8.5M)
    24. RP (Maybe re-sign Harris (est guess 7.5M)
    25. RP (Likely FA signing 6M)


    Guaranteed contracts: 145.85M
    Arbitration estimates: 47.47M
    Potential replacements: 35.2M
    TOTAL: 228.52

    If my estimates are accurate, we are about 20 million OVER the luxury threshold with these minimum replacements, even without benefits and other costs.

    Let's assume we find a taker for Reddick and shred the 13M. Take out Miley at 8.5M. That would bring us under the tax threshold, but it would leave us without a SP.

    IMO, the only way we sign Cole is if Crane is willing to pay tax penalties for the next several years; at minimum we'd be over for 2020, and then we'd be severely limited in 2021.

    At our maxed out budget, any new additions are going to come at a heavy toll, or we will be shopping for very inexpensive players in the upcoming couple of years.
     
  13. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D
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    Now factor in the 26th player added in 2020
     
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  14. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    My feelings about trying to retain Cole or not mainly rests on what I expect from his future and what we have to pay.

    Lets say we could sign him to a 6 or 7 year deal. Realistically, he is not going to pitch at a Cy Young level every year. but I dont expect him to drop below "very good" either.

    If we have to pay 200m/6yr, or something in that realm, that is too much for me to pay someone who is just "very good". At 140M/6yr, "Very good" would be fine.

    There just isn't any way to know. He could end up "excellent" (> very good, < Cy Young) over the next 6.

    One thing I do know for sure, if he walks, ends up with the Yankees, and ends up excellent or better for them, I am going to be very frustrated.
     
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  15. marks0223

    marks0223 Astros STILL 2017 Champions
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    Nice summary. Greinke would have to be traded. With Arizona picking up a chunk of his salary that should make a trade a little easier to offset some of his struggles here. Hopefully he performs well in the postseason not only to get us a championship but to keep his trade value high.

    A prospect would have to be sent along in any Reddick deal if the goal is to completely eliminate his salary from the books but if we're getting prospects back in a Greinke deal that won't sting as much.
     
  16. H-Town Info

    H-Town Info Member

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    Ummmm....Where's Air Yordan?
     
  17. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    Springer will get more than 14 million. Probably 17-19 million.

    Good chance the Astros don't tender a contract to Sanchez or negotiate a lower salary depending on his rehab.

    Don't see the Astros bringing back both Chirinos and Maldonado.

    But... your post outlines why it would be very unlikely to resign Cole unless Greinke and Reddick are on the move. Even still, we would have a bunch of holes to fill and our budget would already be well into the luxury tax.
     
  18. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Budgets and finances do change during times of peak success. They should also change during times of non-contention.

    This is a proven facet of this organization. Based on their history, they do spend money and offer extensions to key/prime players to extend championship contention windows... while choosing not to re-sign guys who are past-prime or replaceable.

    If they feel Cole, Correa, Springer are all replaceable, they won't attempt to re-sign. Something tells me they don't feel that way about all of them.
     
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  19. CinematicFusion

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    My opinion. It’s between Astros, Dodgers, Angels.
    If he wants to go back to California( it’s where he grew up) then we don’t have a chance.

    However, if he likes it here. 6 years 33-34 would do it
     
  20. CinematicFusion

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    I think we go over luxury tax if we win the WS.
    They will try and trade Greinke and Reddick.
    They will try and retain Cole for 6 years 33-35.
    Verlander, Cole, McCullers will be ideal.
     

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