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If we are intent on trading Francis, is there incentive to put him in the lottery?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by crossover, May 2, 2004.

  1. crossover

    crossover Member

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    IF there were no chance Francis would be wearing a Rocket uniform next season, do you not protect him in the Bobcats Expansion draft?

    This is a discussion, not a suggesstion because I simply don't know the in's and out's of the Draft.

    Deuce brought it up and Gater addressed some of it here... http://bbs2.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?s=&threadid=74450 .

    Statements:
    - we lose Francis's contract
    - you get a small TE that cannot be used with the relatively large 6.9M Rice TE.
    - if you fall under the cap, your TE diminishes equivalently.
    - bobcats can only take on something like 2/3rds of the current cap.


    My opinions:

    - PG is the most talented position in the league.

    - Paying max for a PG isn't good business sense.

    - Francis' trade value is low. -> I doubt most organizations would offer anything truly "worth" it; what we pray for (brand, t-mac etc) would probably get better offers from other teams.

    - teams find getting under the cap more valuable than what Francis could offer.

    Possibilities:

    - Bobcats may not want Francis either with his contract taking up so much space. This leaves Rockets with a disgruntled player (who we would have tried to trade anyways). Value could drop even more so quickly.

    - Would have to sign a player if Francis were to be picked to avoid dropping under the cap. How long before the TE were to disappear, not sure.

    The Plan?

    - Sign certain players if you can outright with our large $$ space. IF swift is available, offer him, arroyo, brent barry, okur, marquis daniels decent cash and ginoboli, rasheed a lot. (Personally a bit tentative on paying rasheed too much). This also prevents the TE from getting smaller.

    - Whatever doesn't work out or to finalize a powerful roster, use the 6.9 TE. The target would be a bloated team with superfluous talent at a single position (such as jamison with the rise of Daniels and Howard or doug christie/bobby J).

    Whatever holes we need to fill in, use the smaller TE (2-3M?) and sign people to take chances on. McDyess, ostertag, giricek, jon barry? and minor trades.

    Opinions/analysis on this route of losing Francis?
     
  2. GATER

    GATER Member

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    crossover -
    First, this is not overly complicated and should help:

    http://www.nba.com/bobcats/news/draft_central_expansion_rules_summary.html

    Secondly, if Steve Francis were lost to CHA in some manner of the expansion draft, the following things would happen immediately:

    * An $11.5m TE to replace Francis.
    * The Rockets' 2004-05 payroll would drop to ~$40m or roughly $4m below the cap and consequently...
    * The Rice TE would be decreased from $6.99 to $2.99m.
    * The Rockets lose their MLE.
    * Both TE's must be used independently of each other.
    * A "trade exception" is as described....it is not money that can be used to sign FA's.


    Net result is that we have two TE's to replace Francis. One of $11.5m and the other of $2.99m. And we have primarily Mobley and/or Cato and/or Taylor to move to make use of either of the TE's. (Remember, we now have no MLE to sign FA's).

    However, if we kept Francis and traded him ourselves, we keep the ~$5m MLE and we can accept up to $18.49m of incoming contracts (Francis's $11.5m + $6.99 TE). IMHO, it does not take much power of observation to see that we are far better served to keep Francis for our own trading purposes than to let CHA make the trade.
     
  3. mrgoubople1

    mrgoubople1 Member

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    How exactly can you use an 11.5 mill TE?
    or the 6 mill one we really have,
    is it that in exchange for one player of that salary, and i think i remember reading that it cannot be packaged w/ one of our players.
     
  4. Sane

    Sane Member

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    For example, if Rasheed decides he wants to play with Yao and Mobley, we can sign n trade the TE for him signed to an 11.5M contract.

    If the Sonics decide they want to rebuild, we can take Rashard Lewis off their hands straight up with part of that excpetion.

    We could probably snap up NVE to backup the PG spot.
     
  5. New Jack

    New Jack Member

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    The only way I could see the Rockets leaving Francis unprotected is if the Bobcats agreed to send the #4 pick in the draft to Houston and the Rockets had a prearranged deal for that 11.5 mil trade exception.
     
  6. GATER

    GATER Member

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    NO. Absolutely wrong. It's an urban legend that just won't die.

    The originator of this falacy is the normally reliable Jonathan Feigen in an article stating this about Eddie Griffin. The article was quoted here at CF's that Griffin could not be traded by himself using the TE. The actual section of the CBA (not Coon's abbreviated website) was located by aelliott and this was appropriately dismissed as incorrect.

    Think of it this way. The TE is the completion of the Rice-Amaechi trade without the use of the assigned player exception (+/-15% +100k). Could Griffin have been included in the trade to Utah? Then he (and/or others) can be used to "complete" the trade at a later date.
     
  7. crossover

    crossover Member

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    Thanks Gater -

    I'm sure this has been posted before, but why do the Rocket's lose their MLE and exactly what is it?
     
  8. GATER

    GATER Member

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    crossover -

    The Mid-Level (or Mid-class) Exception is among many methods which allow over the cap teams to sign FA's...their own or other teams'. The CBA allows teams to have cap space or exceptions for teams over the cap...but it disallows both at the same time. You can have one or the other but not both.

    IOW, when we made the trade with Utah they were under the cap and "transferred" some of their cap space in the form of an incomplete trade. We can have this temporarily transferred cap space as long as we remain above the cap.

    Does this help?
     
  9. m_cable

    m_cable Member

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    Exactly, you don't move a talent like Steve without a guarantee that you'll get something in return. The trade exceptions are nice but ultimately they are only the facilitators for making trades, and wouldn't guarantee anything if you don't have any pieces to move. We could be left out in the cold and have to let the TE's expire. Or worse yet, make some rash deals in order to use up the TE before they expire.
     
  10. saleem

    saleem Member

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    If we could use the 11.5 M TE with a prearranged deal and the 4th pick we could potentially land something pretty big like you have been saying all along New Jack. This makes some sense in light of Doc Rocket's post. But it seems all spectulation right now.
    Thanks for clearing the point GATER.
     
  11. GATER

    GATER Member

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    crossover -

    After checking further, the loss of the MLE and the TE are not automatic. My bad. They must first be renounced by the Rockets. Here's the easiest scenario using what I was correct about before...

    As before, the Rockets have $51m committed and a $6.99M Rice TE. If Francis were taken by CHA, the committed drops to $40m. So now we have the Rice TE and the CHA TE (from the expansion rules linked earlier). Both count against the cap unless they are renounced. So in total we have a $6.99m Rice TE, an $11.5m CHA TE and a ~$5m MLE.

    Now here's where it gets a little tricky.

    Are we better off with trading SF3 ourselves or with having 2 trade exceptions totalling ~$17m? (We'd have an MLE either way as long as there were no renouncements). I'm not really sure. I'd be inclined to do the trading ourseves via the Rice TE.

    Sorry if this is clear as mud...it'll all come out in the wash! :)
     
  12. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    Debate all you like, but no NBA GM would ever do this...it runs counter to all conventional wisdom and common sense, even if it doesn't.

    You might as well debate what would happen to the salary cap if Maurice Taylor were abducted by aliens in the offseason, it's about as likely a possibility.
     
  13. Summer Song Giver

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    :D Sometimes you guys make laugh.
     
  14. SmeggySmeg

    SmeggySmeg Member

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    maybe if they used the anal probe on him, he could come back able to rebound and defend
     
  15. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    Why would he need another hole in his head?

    :)

    DD
     
  16. Summer Song Giver

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    Southpark style, can you imagine the lift he would get when that huge satalite shot out his ass propelling him up for the rebound.
     
  17. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    He would still be out of position, and would miss the rebound anyway.

    :)

    DD
     
  18. GATER

    GATER Member

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    Math not one of your better subjects? :)

    No one would trade NVE for Antawn Jamison or Reaf La Frentz for Antoine Walker or Rasheed Wallace for nothing but cap space or Stephon Marbury and Penny Hardaway for McDyess...

    Understanding the mechanics is a prerequisite to understabing the possibilites. IIRC, that was you that debated the value of the TE with aelliott and me, right?
     
  19. MadGame2002

    MadGame2002 Member

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    This was a great post. I would certainly try and broker a deal with the bobcats. They're an expansion team ,so francis could have the ball and dribble to his heart extent.I'de love us to have some breathing room under the cap.
     
  20. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    No, that wasn't me. I don't really have a solid grasp of the TE. What I do grasp is that no NBA GM would give up an all star player for nothing, even if it does give you cap space, simply because it puts so much pressure on you to get something successful in return. It's more basic human psychology than anything else.

    The only person who literally gave up something for nothing was Jerry Krause when he dismantled the bulls....that one didn't exactly fly.
     

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