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If there is an attack on Iran, here's the "when" and the "how" of our involvement...

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by tigermission1, May 20, 2008.

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  1. tigermission1

    tigermission1 Member

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    When?

    After the upcoming Israeli national elections, which by all indications will be held some time later this year. I fully expect that the Likud hard-liner Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu is likely to win and hold the position of Prime Minister. If that happens, then in all likelihood "Bibi" will have roughly a 2-3 month period where he can launch an attack on Iran, during which the Bush administration would still be in power, which Israeli politicians consider to be the most 'hawkish' administration when it comes to the Iranian dossier; they think an Obama or even a McCain administration would be a 'less favorable' time to launch an attack and expect full U.S. military backing, and they're probably right about that.

    How?

    Any overt Israeli operations against Iran will most certainly draw an Iranian retaliation on multiple fronts and will 'sucker' the U.S. into the war as the de facto guardian of Israel (whether you like or not; we would do the same for Saudi or Kuwait or even the UAE). So U.S. involvement will come on the heels of the Israeli attack and Iranian counterattack. U.S. forces in the Gulf would undoubtedly come under attack in any Iranian retaliation, but even absent that any Iranian attack on Israel will still draw the U.S. into the war.

    Pretty straight forward, but I thought I would outline what I think is the most likely 'scenario' for any possible attack on Iran and subsequent U.S. involvement in that conflict.
     
  2. El_Conquistador

    El_Conquistador King of the D&D, The Legend, #1 Ranking

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    Lining up my stock picks should this become a reality.... looking for unhedged oil producers and possibly shorting oil tankers... maybe go long defense contractors... lots of opportunity folks...
     
  3. tigermission1

    tigermission1 Member

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    :D

    I've always admired your glass half-full outlook on things. Should it happen, I fully expect a cut of whatever you make.

    Oh, also, which Russian stock should I invest in? I am thinking more along the lines of the maker of the Sunburn Missile:

    For recreation, here's another one:

    http://www.rense.com/general59/theSunburniransawesome.htm
     
  4. danny317

    danny317 Member

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    id think the israeli military wouldnt need our help to mop the floor w/ the iranians.

    they just need us to give them the green light.
     
  5. thegary

    thegary Member

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    i love how the potential for the loss of countless thousands of human lives equals... lots of opportunity folks... nice.
     
  6. lpbman

    lpbman Member

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    Sunburn is an effective, even fearsome weapon system.

    But the threat from Iran is it's Kilo class submarines. The problem the Iranians have is the stand off capabilities of an aircraft carrier coupled with the tanker support already in the area. If it comes to blows, Iran goes back to the stone age.

    That said, the U.S. doesn't need/want this fight either. We're trying to stabilize Iraq, not throw the region into chaos.
     
  7. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    When that earthquake hit people were lining up to short Chinese stocks. I couldn't get myself to do that. Capitalizing on human suffering is just hard to do.
     
  8. El_Conquistador

    El_Conquistador King of the D&D, The Legend, #1 Ranking

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    Why? It in no way interferes with my grieving process.
     
  9. thegary

    thegary Member

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    george,
    might i ask what your grieving process entails?
     
  10. rhadamanthus

    rhadamanthus Member

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    No kidding. That's just plain nasty.

    EDIT - I should say the excitement is nasty; I am torn on the actual "money-making" aspect.
     
    #10 rhadamanthus, May 20, 2008
    Last edited: May 20, 2008
  11. danny317

    danny317 Member

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    will you charge cover for a loved ones funeral?

    extra for front row?
     
  12. El_Conquistador

    El_Conquistador King of the D&D, The Legend, #1 Ranking

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    A demand-based pricing model... every economist's wet dream!
     
  13. danny317

    danny317 Member

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    i shouldnt have asked. :eek:

    well, i think youd make a killing on tissues (if anyone is will to pay the price of admission.)
     
  14. Rashmon

    Rashmon Member

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    Did you mean "entrails?"
     
  15. Dubious

    Dubious Member

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    So you know Iran is a mountainous country 3 times the size and population of Iraq right?

    If the most powerful army in the world can't subdue the flat desert of Iraq how do you think Israel or the US or both would do in Iran.

    Short of the world nuclear suicide, any military threat is hollow, adolescent bluster.
     
  16. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    I don't believe this talk of an Iran attack before Bush leaves. It is saber-rattling. A chunk of the Middle East (including Iraq) would go up in flames and U.S. diplomacy & interests all over the world would suffer untold damage. Also remember there is an upcoming election. The cynicism this inspired would nuke our electoral process in November.

    If we move against Iran, it will happen with the new president. I understand the scenario presented here, but Israel can more than defend itself against Iran. They wouldn't need us to step in.

    If Israel attacked Iran and they responded by attacking us, then you have a scenario. But even then, our involvement would be limited.
     
  17. bejezuz

    bejezuz Member

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    So, if we invade Iran, does that mean Iraq was Bush's Poland, or was it Afghanistan?
     
  18. Bandwagoner

    Bandwagoner Member

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    If Israel attacked Iran with full commitment then Iran would be worrying about itself rather than our ships in the gulf.


    They would also need cash to fight the war and unless we put up a blockade would try its hardest to sell its oil to china.

    Seriously though Israel basically takes our weapons (subsidized of course) and does what they want to with them, sell them to chinese, whatever. The unofficially have had nukes for a few decades and are probably itchin to use them.
     
  19. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Member

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    The loving touch that only the shampain room can offer.
     
  20. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    If Israel decided to attack Iran, it would be at "full commitment". Your point about Iran being fully occupied defending itself is interesting.

    Israel definitely would NOT use nukes if they attacked Iran this year. It would make them a global pariah far beyond what they are now. It would also destroy their standing in the U.S. They are aware of the diplomatic outrage around the world and the anger here in the U.S. doing such a stupid thing would cause. Israel is not "itchin" to use their nukes.
     

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