... Houston, we might have a problem. According to the ESPN article mentioned here earlier: "The Rockets would likely trade the top pick if a deal can't be struck with the Chinese. Houston isn't as interested in Duke point guard Jay Williams as the top pick because Steve Francis plays the same position." Doesn't announcing this significantly weaken the trade value of the No. 1 pick? If the Rockets can't get the assurances they want from the various Chinese authorities mentioned in the article, why would anyone else want to trade more than a draft pick for Ming? If teams know ahead of time that the Rockets aren't going to draft either Ming or Jay Williams then why wouldn't not make the Rockets eat the No. 1 pick and start dealing with Chicago or Golden State for the No. 2 or 3? At a minimum they save money on the rookie salary scale. If this info is accurate and came from within the Rockets organization I don't understand what they hoped to gain from leaking such intentions. Doesn't seem to me that it helps them at all.
According to the article the Rockets aren't interested in drafting Williams because they already have Francis. If this is true and I want Williams then I would most likely dealing with Chicago not Houston. My point is that even if the Rockets did trade with a team that wanted Williams, their pick won't command as much as it would have if other GMs thought ahead of time they wanted Ming. In either case the it appears to me that the Rockets have minimized the No. 1 pick's trade value.
The concensus seems to be that Ming will go #1, J Will #2. If you take Ming out of the picture, then only the #1 will get J Will. If Ming isn't a possibility, why not just draft the best player left, since that player will have the highest trade value? Also, it could be that the Chinese gov't will not want Ming to come to Houston, but might work out a deal that would let him go to another NBA city (like NYC).
If you want Williams, then you still have to deal with Houston. Trading with Chicago makes no sense because Chicago can't guarentee you Williams. Sure, Houston won't pick Williams for themselves at #1, but they certainly could trade that pick to somebody that would select Williams. If we want Yao, then it's a moot point because we'll draft him #1. If we decide we don't want Yao Ming, then all bets are off and anybody and any deal for #1 is fair game. Either way, we still have all of the leverage.
I think the ESPN piece just strengthen's the Rockets position. It really put's it out there that the JWill can be picked by the Rockets and traded for the right price. Now if I was the Clippers or the Magic, and I wanted JWill, who would I trade with - Rockets or Bulls? -Tariq
Yes aelliot, a bidding war for Williams would be to the Rockets advantage in this case but the thing that gives the Rockets their greatest leverage in that scenario is the supposed interest of Chicago in Jay Williams. If Chicago downplays that interest then teams would be be wise to deal with them given the fact that the Rockets (in this scenario) would have already declared that they don't want Ming or Williams. Perhaps the difference of getting the guy you want at No. 2 overall as opposed to No. 1 overall isn't that significant. Still, to me common sense says if I can get the guy I want for less and pay him less then then that's the logical route to go. I'm not saying that the Rockets will get nothing if they declare they don't want Ming or Williams. I'm saying they will get less than they could have if had played it closer to the vest. How much less remains to be seen.
JT,even if the Rockets didn't want either player and made it public,that does NOTHING to minimize their position of power. It does the exact opposite. The two most important dimensions remain the same: 1. Other teams desperately DO want one or the other,and 2. The Rockets occupy the only space where they're guaranteed to get the player they want. Heck,even Krause,who is trying to be coy about which one he really wants,would be forced to tip his hand if the Rockets announced they were putting #1 on the open market. He'd be the FIRST one on the phone trying to trade with the Rockets! If you were a GM who wanted one of these two players and the Rockets announced,"Hey folks,highest bidder gets it",don't you think you'd be ticked off? You'd be thinking,"Man,now I'll have to UP my offer to beat out these other guys who are now openly bidding".
And if the Rockets didn't want either one and didn't trade before the draft,there is no way they'd pass on both of them. They would still draft the one with more trade value.
