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If Posey is let go, no trade for a forward would be a killer

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Desert Scar, Jul 26, 2003.

  1. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Member

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    Pike is nice but no replacement for Posey.
    James Posey is the lone forward we have that provides a serious defensive presence and rebounds above average for his position due to his length and athleticism. I do like the Pike signing, but I see Pike a back-up replacement for when Rice is done with a secondary role as occasional back up 2--nothing more. Posey is also 26, Pike 32--so there also is a big difference in who can stay with the core of our team in the mid and long term.

    Worst 2 deep bookend in the league won’t cut it.
    If we were to go into the season with EG/Mot and Rice/Pike as the two deep at the 3 & 4 we simply will present the leagues #1 butter defense. It is simply neither athletic nor strong enough at either spot to keep us from getting killed. And neither Hawkins or Tmo (if we resign him) are the answers--either are pretty good 9th, 10th men--but don't fool yourself that either has shown they can give you 24MPG without showing major flaws against most of the NBA competition. Boki has shown even less at the NBA level--he looks another 2 years away if he is ever to hang as a starter in the NBA (being objective, much less than a 50/50 proposition).

    slim picking in free agency or out of our price league
    I have also looked at the FA list for 3s we might be able to get for 1 mil or less. The most proven players that might be available are Adrian "no O" Griffin, Lee "no D" Nailon, and Bryan "I left my shot in Chicago" Russell. However if we won't be willing to spend 5 mil for Posey--it makes me think we would not likely spend 3 for Pike and 1.5 for one of them, therefore I am not sure we could get them, and even if we do, we are talking about players with major holes in their games. Nonetheless if any would sign for a mil it would be better than standing pat, I guess. How about unproven youngsters with some potential? From my list Donnell Harvey, Demarr and Bobby Simmons have some athleticism or length and are 23 or less--I guess worth a shot as their potential are all higher than say Tmos even if they might not be better than Tmo right now. Maybe the Nugs Chris Andersen has more potential than Tmo also--I can't really say about him (tall and rebounds well for his PT). You can scratch J Jackson, J Jones (RFA) and S Jack, forget them (all who would be good additions honestly), because of their price. Like I said if we are not willing to match Posey we are not going to spend the 2-5 mil per year to get in these guys ballpark either.

    So where does that leave us? Is it saving money or being serious about a playoff caliber team If winning is the highest priority for the Rockets they MUST act to shore up our forwards. We need at least one 3 or 4 who matches up well athletically against most his counterparts—having two that can’t hang will just present too many mismatches day in and day out. The simplest move is to match Posey. I still think it is quite possible, we are dragging Memphis along with a surprise waiting for them. James Posey in a 4 year deal starting at 4.7 mil simply is not a bad contract compared to other 26 year old decent 3s in the league.

    If indeed Posey is let go, we must trade to upgrade a forward spot
    If Posey is gone, and we are serious about winning we must have a trade in the pipeline. Some combination of Cato, Mot, EG, Rice, Boki, and even Cat (Pike is a better replacement for him than a regular 3) need to be moved for an above average starting NBA forward who is long, athletic and/or physical and his position, (or at least one who potentially is such a player being very young and athletic even if raw last year). Maybe Brian Grant, maybe Ratliff, maybe Tim Thomas, maybe Dunleavy, maybe Desmond Mason, maybe Wilcox, maybe Battier, maybe Swift, maybe E. Jones, maybe Bender, maybe Donyell Marshall, maybe Jermain Jones, maybe A Harrington. If we are really reaching high--and it might be feasible (EG and/or Cat have serious trade value)--maybe SAR, Sheed, Jamison, or Odom. But something must happen between now and the start of the season--be it James Posey or a trade, otherwise it is a pretty big cloud that Les is going to spend enough to ever have the quality supporting cast needed around Yao and Francis.

    That’s all I got.
     
  2. SLA

    SLA Member

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    Good post............

    I wish we could sign Posey or at least do a sign and trade with them to get Person or Battier. We can't just let him go! He's too good! He's a secondary star! He's tall and athletic and was improving his shot....and he's the hustler that JVG should like. But we just can't sign him because we signed Moochie to a huge contract giving him 3.6 million a year when he deserves to be earning at most 1 million. That 2 million could have been for Posey! Taylor and Cato are also overpaid but are at least decent players. Rice's contract is expiring.

    I really want Posey to come back but it doesn't seem likely! So we must do a sign and trade like the Pacers did!!! Please!!! We need somebody. It doesn't really matter though..because the Spurs, Lakers, Kings, and especially the Timberwolves have improved way too much. We can't compete with them.

    And LEE NAILON?!? He's big...that's all.

    Sadly...I agree. EG and MT is one of the worst power forward combos in the entire NBA. They are just average while most in the West have a star at the power forward position. SAD! Glen Rice, Bostjan Nachbar, and Eric Piatkowski is also just average...not anything spectacular....Posey would improve it somewhat.

    It's just a game and I think the Rockets should focus on getting cap space if they aren't trying to do something big....we need to be like the Timberwolves were this offseason..
     
  3. Thanos

    Thanos Member

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    Great post. Couldn't agree with you more.

    Now let's wait for those rose colored glass wearing, a$$ kissing people show up and say:

    1. That matching would be overpaying for Posey, and that it would send us into luxury tax land.

    Which is ridiculous, because Posey is worth that easily, and because we don't even know if there will even BE a luxury tax next season.

    2. That Posey's commitment to defense is no longer as important as it was in Rudy's days, since JVG is a defensive minded coach and all the team should improve it's defense.

    Again people are overrating how much a coach can improve a player's individual defensive effort. Sure, a coach can use a lot of zone defense and trapping, but it's foolish to expect Francis to become a defensive stopper overnight, a great man to man defender just because Van Gundy wants him to. As DC has pointed out, our team would have one of the worst defensive frontcourts in the entire league, if not THE worst.

    3. We can find a defensive specialist easily, and for a better value than Posey.

    Undersestimate Posey at your own peril. He was among the leaders in triple doubles when he was in Denver last season. It may have been a bad team, but don't tell me that anyone could have done that...and besides, we ALL know how our old system made the SF a stand still shooter. Posey could be a lot more useful under Van Gundy.

    4. We have already overpayed Moochie, Mo and Cato, why overpay again?

    Actually, Cato is not overpaid, Mo was worth the money when he signed, and Moochie... now THAT's overpayment. Posey is certainly a better 3 than Mo was a 4 when he got that contract... BTW, I have a challenge for all the Posey haters out there: make a list of all the starting 3's in the league you consider to be better than Posey, and their salary. Let's see how he matches up against what it's out there. You will be surprised.

    Bottom line: unless there's something major in the works, letting Posey go is a cheap move, and one that sends all the wrong signs about our future. We still have Rice's contract about to expire, and just letting a player of Posey's qualities leave like that reminds me of Sterling's old ways. There's no excuse. Who in their right mind would say that Posey ISN'T the kind of player who would thrive under JVG's system? Les is being cheap, and considering the Toyota deal, the new arena, and Yao being the huge cash cow that he is, that is entirely unnaceptable.

    Hope you appreciate the help, Desert Scar.
     
  4. Sane

    Sane Member

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    I think we should match and then trade Mobley along with a bad contract.

    I'm comfortable with Posey and Pike splitting time at the 2. Pike at the 2, Rice at the 3 with Yao kicking out? Posey can play the better offensive player at the swingman position on any given night.
     
  5. SLA

    SLA Member

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    I'm all for that too! And great post Thanos..


    Mobley + Cato, Taylor, Rice, and/or Moochie for a good power forward? We don't need another point guard or shooting guard if we can resign Posey and Piatkowski. At small forward...Posey, Rice, and Nachbar can split the time. We should resign Hawkins. Power forward.....that's where we would really need help if we get Posey and Piatkowski. We got Yao at center.

    Without Posey....we are still a good team but Posey is a special player!! We need a miracle!
     
  6. Thanos

    Thanos Member

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    According to Feigen, our efforts are in vain and Posey is gone for good...

    July 26, 2003, 12:28AM

    Piatkowski expected to sign today
    By JONATHAN FEIGEN
    Copyright 2003 Houston Chronicle
    The Rockets' roster is incomplete, but they expect to move one sharpshooter closer today.

    The Rockets nailed down the details of a contract with free-guard agent Eric Piatkowski on Friday and plan to sign him today, said Piatkowski's agent, Jeff Austin.

    Piatkowski and the Rockets agreed on a three-year contract worth roughly $8.5 million, according to league sources, on Thursday. Austin said they completed the contract late Friday and made plans for Piatkowski to fly to Houston today.

    "Eric Piatkowski's deal is done," Austin said. "He will fly to Houston to sign it in the morning. Today, we just had to get the language worked out, and we did."

    Piatkowski, who will become the 10th Rockets player under contract, will replace James Posey on the Rockets' roster. Posey signed a four-year, $24 million offer sheet with the Memphis Grizzlies this week. The Rockets had been unlikely to match the offer to keep Posey because they wanted to avoid a luxury-tax penalty. With the deal with Piatkowski, they are certain to let Posey go.

    Piatkowski has played predominantly as a shooting guard but at 6-6 can work in at small forward in some matchups. Posey was generally a small forward that could play guard, as he likely will with the Grizzlies.

    While Posey is considered more dangerous on the break and a more disruptive defender, Piatkowski was considered among the top free-agent shooters who were available this summer.


    Piatkowski, 32, averaged 9.7 points per game last season, while making 47.1 percent of his shots overall and 39.8 percent of his 3-pointers.

    In nine seasons since being drafted from Nebraska, all with the Clippers, he has averaged 8.6 points per game while making 40.2 percent of his 3-point attempts. He is the Clippers' all-time leader in 3-pointers made and attempted and in 3-point shooting accuracy.

    Prior to this summer's deal with Elton Brand, Piatkowski had the distinction of holding the longest contract (other than league-mandated rookie contracts) ever signed by Clippers owner Donald Sterling. That was the four-year deal Piatkowski finished this season.

    Piatkowski expected to sign today
     
  7. Thanos

    Thanos Member

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    I just find a bit hard to swallow that they KEEP feeding us the line about being certain that the team would have to pay the luxury tax if Posey is signed, when that cannot be told for sure right now.

    Losing a player because the owner fears that we *MIGHT* have to pay the tax is cheap. Real cheap.
     
    #7 Thanos, Jul 26, 2003
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2003
  8. Gascon

    Gascon Member

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    I agree that we should match Posey's contract offer. However, I disagree that not getting another forward would be a killer. It wouldn't necessarily by good, but calling it a "killer" is going a bit far.

    We've won two championships with one or two(depending on the year) unbelievable players and a cast of role players that hit big shots at the right time. In 95', we started Dream, Horry, Elie, Drexler, and Smith.
    Off the bench?
    Cassell, Chucky Brown, Charles Jones, and Pete Chilcutt.

    For those of you crying about our lack of depth, I don't disagree. But looking at our 95' lineup, I can't really agree with you, either. There are too many other intangibles involved. I think we've already made the biggest aquisition we could have made in the offseason by picking up JVG. Anyone else is gravy, and not necessarily required.
     
  9. thumbs

    thumbs Member

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    By not re-signing Posey until the 11th hour, the Rockets keep Memphis from going after other talent still available but susceptible to a quck offer. I hope this is the case.
     
  10. Thanos

    Thanos Member

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    Gascon, do you truly expect Yao to become as dominant as Hakeem was back in '95? Or maybe even more importantly, do you expect Francis to become a disciplined player like Drexler was?

    And even if your answer is yes in both cases, the competition today in the west is immesurably greater. Look at LA, SA, SAC and the Wolves. And I'm not even counting the Mavs, who suddenly look like a second rate team even after waking the west finals last season!

    It doesn't make any sense to lose the players we HAVE while others team improved tremendously!
     
  11. HotRocket

    HotRocket Member

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    I thought I might as well add this real quick...

    Eric:
    pt 9.7, reb 2.5, ast 1.1, fg 47%, 3pt 40%, ft 83% min 21.9
    Posey:
    pt 9.3, reb 4.8, ast 1.8, fg 44%, 3pt 32%, ft 83%, min 28.4

    The stats for Posey are based on when he joined the Rockets.

    As you can see Eric beats Posey in points, fg pertenctage, 3pt percentage, and he is tied in ft percentage.

    Yes, Posey has a slight edge in rebs and assists, but there is also the fact that Eric plays almost 7 less minutes than Posey on a team who's only vocabulary consists of dollar signs.

    Now, I'm not saying that I would rather have Eric than Posey, (especially because he showed a lot to us in the final month) but if you look at it from a production stand point, Eric seems to be that cheap outside threat that we've been looking for. We just need Van Gundy to create a great defensive scheme to hide the fact that he can't play as good of defense as Posey.
     
  12. Gascon

    Gascon Member

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    Thanos,

    this too, shall change.

    I don't like the school of thought that we should bust our asses trying to match up to all of the moves that the Lakers, Wolves, Spurs, etc., are making. Only time will tell if their moves pay off or end up exploding in their faces.

    I put a higer premium on cohesive team play. As much as I hate them, our reigning NBA champions won with one really fantastic player, one fading hall of famer, and a bunch of role-players. Sound familiar? ;) This paranoia going on right now with everyone trying to shore up every position with all-star caliber talent is a flawed way of thinking, and in my opinion, ultimately misguided.

    I'm not saying the Lakers(with Kobe) shouldn't be overwhelming favorites to win it all this year, but at the same time I don't think it's written in the stars yet.

    Oh, and yes, I do happen to think that Yao will be as dominant as Dream one day. :)

    I think any team that plays well as a unit has a very good chance of handing the Dream Team their asses on any given night.
     
  13. Thanos

    Thanos Member

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    Gascon, I understand where you are coming from, and I actually share your thoughts. However, there's a great difference between trying to have an All-star at every position and keeping that talent that you have, talent that is not as expensive as some are making it up to be.

    In a perfect world, this is the roster a would have, with players I think can be had:

    Yao/Cato
    Brian Grant/Griffin
    Posey/Boki
    Francis/Pike
    Snow/?

    Trading Rice's expiring contract along with Mo and Moochie's and sending Cuttino to pussyland.;)

    That line-up would:

    1. give us frontcourt toughness, allow Griffin to mature safely behind Grant.
    2. would allow us to resign Yao because Grant's contract expires the same season.
    3. move Steve to the 2 and bring a tough nosed guard to play next to him
    4. KEEP Posey.

    FAR from wanting an all-star at every position wouldn't it? The ONLY thing I would change if I could is having Brand instead of Grant, but that's just impossible.
     
  14. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Member

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    I think the 94 or 95 line-up presents a good case. James Posey would be the 7th man or so on those teams. In fact his progress could be a lot like Mario's. All Posey has to do is keep on working on his set shot like guys like Mario and Bowen did through their late 20s--and he becomes a very well rounded roll player. Everybody says his work ethic is there, and he even has some size that Mario didn't have. But a team needs guys like Mario Elie and James Posey--they are not a dime a dozen and guys like Tmo and Hawkins, no knock to them, just are not the same.

    How on target is Feigen usually?--even if he is in the loop pretty tight maybe he is spread alternative info and that is what we want Memphis to think.

    I hope this is case too, either this or a major trade for one the guys I mentioned. Posey is the 4st best player on the team and best forward last year--losing him w/o a replacement means we will be lucky to be the 8th seed. Keeping him doesn't cost us a draft pick, a player, nothing but a fairly reasonable contract--that is a terrible sign if that is what we get.

    Thanks for the responses fellas. I still think w/o Posey and no trade we have w/o question the worst defensive group of forwards in the league, and offensively they are nothing great either. JVG can do a lot, but he can't coach quickness, strength, length, size and athletic ability. We have a formula for the softest D in the whole league working without some moves.
     
  15. dharocks

    dharocks Member

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    I'm not a "Posey hater," but here are some of the starting SFs in the league and their salaries:

    JP - 6 mil

    Lamar Odom - 3.6 mil
    Rick Fox - 4.3 mil
    Caron Butler - 1.7 mil
    Richard Jefferson - 1.5 mil
    Peja Stojakovic - 5.6 mil
    Bruce Bown - 3.5 mil
    Matt Harpring - 4 mil

    And just for fun...

    Keith Van Horn - 12 mil

    I realize some of these are rookie contracts, but what the hell, they count. Anyway, I loved Posey, but I don't want to Rox to be the suckers that gave their fifth or sixth best player a ridiculour contract, like what KVH has.

    If Mo can work on his post defense and Eddie on his post offense, our frontcourt depth problem will disappear. I think Eddie will be vastly improved next year, especially under Ewing. Mo I'm kind of worried about - he's not afraid of contact, but he seems unwilling to expend a lot of energy on D, much like Francis and Mobley (You might notice that Mobley rarely plays offense and defense on the same night - getting his ankles scoped should help that).

    Commence with the bashing.
     
  16. Thanos

    Thanos Member

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    Bashing, indeed.

    For starters, Posey's salary is a MLE level salary. How much is the MLE worth these days? 4.5 million. That's the value of his contract next season. Not 6 mil.

    Now let's see... you KNOW that Butler, Jefferson and Odom are going to get more than Posey's offer. You just know it. Same for Peja's next deal. Peja's contract was signed before his breakthrough. Posey is certainly better than Rick Fox and Bowen, who are both on their last legs.

    Harpring's contract seems to be the best one to compare with Posey's. Posey makes .5 million more than Harpring. Would you say that is unfair? They probably deserve the same salary, as Harpring has greater range, but Posey's defense is better than his.

    So far, all you have done is prove my point. For that, I thank you very much.

    KVH of course, is ridiculous.
     
  17. Yodels

    Yodels Member

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    I like Posey. Someone who you can go to war with...hence piquing the interest of someone who understands the game--Jerry West. Jerry West also went after Robert Horry who I also believe did all the little things that win a game that the average fan doesn't see.

    On the other hand, Jerry has been known to pull on GM's chains to set them up for something else...or perhaps he's garnering swingmen as barter chips to use during the season...he probably knows that if we match we're not paying 24mil or 29 mil for Pose but close to double that ~50mil? ...hence putting CD and the Rocks in a predicament...

    We also have the Hawk who duplicates most of Posey's skills. So I don't know what we're going to do. If money were not a factor I think keeping Posey is a wise move. Of course Les Alexander is the one who owns the money tree.
     
  18. solid

    solid Member

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    You could have a pocket full of "Poseys" and still be among the bottom feeders. I have said it before and I will say it again, this team needs an infusion of "real" talent to compete in the West. Otherwise, Ho Hum. At present, despite the addition of JVG, Rocket's fans and players are really in a state of resignation bordering on depression. The predictable hype and hoopla at the beginning of the season (new stadium, new unis, etc.) will soon fade as the reality sets in. Mark it down, no serious personnel changes, no playoffs. BUT, one or two key players could turn us into contenders. If that happens a wave of basketball enthusiasm will envelop the city and fun days will return.
     
  19. dharocks

    dharocks Member

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    Posey's deal is worth 24 mil over 4 years, isn't it? I believe there's an ascension in the contract value over the four years. It's an average of 6 mil a year.

    And with Kidd's contract, Zo's contract, and K-Mart demanding the max, I don't think RJ will be making too much. He'll probably resign with Jersey for a contract worth less than he deserves, due to the Kidd factor.

    But I still believe there's a slim chance we'll match for Posey, and if we do, it will certainly be a good thing for Rockets fans like me - it's not like I'm the one paying the luxury tax.
     
  20. Thanos

    Thanos Member

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    There is, but you don't count contracts on average. The value that would POSSIBLY put us over a POSSIBLY existing luxury tax next season is a starting MLE salary contract.
     

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