Among the more inexplicable aspects of watching the Rockets the last couple of years is their obvious propensity for seeing Yao Ming get on a roll, and then promptly ignoring him for 5 or 10 minute stretches. Now, it should come as little surprise to anyone who;s played or coached basketball,. or even to those who have simply watched a lot, that one of the factors a coach must account for in any given ballgame is how to try and 'ice' a hot player on the other team. That the opposition would do it for you would seem to be an unsought miracle, yet when it comes to Yao, the Rockets seem to do just that with regularity, and it baffles me. Last year, when it happened time and again, I could at least content myself that there were reasonable explanations; Yao's endurance, getting used to a new system, etc. They didn't always seem to hold water, but the novelty of the situation allowed for a flexible perspective. However that pattern has carried over to this year, and with no correction apparently in sight, I finally decided to address the issue in here. Note: The primary reason I have been reluctant to really bring this up previously was the fear that those who see any thread as an opportunity to bash all things Steve and Cat would quickly seize the obvious opportunity this subject presents, and turn this into a Steve vs. Yao thread. While I am in no position to dictate to other posters as to what they may and may not post, I would ask, please, that IF you are going to adopt the position that this is happening because of Steve's ego, or Cat's stat-hunger, please support it with more than just your opinion. It is, I suppose, an arguable stance to adopt, although not one I agree with, but due to the fact that it's been well covered and is so controversial, I would ask for substantive responses in that vein, or content yourselves with the knowledge that your position is understood. Thank You. I would also like to address the possible explanations, and why I think they don't apply, for this puzzling phenomenon. Yao's endurance causes him to have to slow down, thereby being a self-cooling system. I think that there were times last year where this explanation seemed appropriate. There may even be the odd time this year where that has been the case. But based on many other examples I have seen, where Yao is continuing to establish position, work hard, and is still ignored after having gotten hot, it certainly doesn't cover most of these instances. Tonight, for example, Yao was red-hot going into the halftime, yet coming out, a ( it is assumed) fresh Yao didn't see the ball for almost 10 minutes of action. Defenses adjust. This is the most realistic explanation, in my book, but it just doesn't cover way too many examples that it falls short of an answer to why this happens. I didn't see tonight's game, but the announcers were going batty ( on ESPN radio) about this happening, and there were several times where they specifically noted that Yao was open or single covered, and calling for the ball, but was overlooked. I have seen several other games this year, and I can concur with the announcers' complaint. It happens too damed often, and even if defensive adjustments were so extreme while being simultaneously to the naked eye ( at least mine and the radio callers), it would still be common sense that Yao would at least see the ball a bit after being on a roll before we determine that the defensive adjustment is working. Additionally, if the defensive adjustment is the double, there would have to be times where Yao getting the ball would be able to start the inside-out offense, as happens so often when he's not so hot but being doubled. Yao's Eastern Attitude While I agree that Yao is probably the player on the team least lkiely to take 'heat-check' shots, this reason simply does not apply, as he would have to see the ball before he could decide to be all about the collective and pass when hot, and too often he doesn't even get the opportunity. Secondarily, we are trying to overcome some of the negative aspects of Yao's team-first attitude, and simply assuming it will shackle him would seem to be counter-productive. I am, as many of you know, also a Toronto fan, and the Raptors have what theri coach recently called " the most unselfish superstar ever" in basketball, in Vince Carter, whoi also has occassional struggles similar to Yao in seeming to want to play as though he were just another guy...and yet I can only count on one hand the times Carter has gotten red hot, like 18 and 8 at hafl time, and then not seen the ball for 10 minutes if I join my thumb and forefinger...zero. Steve/Cuttino is the Anti-Christ As noted, this explanation will appeal to many, but I'd like to debunk it right here...Steve often plays selfishly, it would seem, but to confuse that with caring more about stats than winning, as some suggest, is to mistake the nature of Steve's issue; he desperately wants to win...and sometimes assumes that his taking over is the best path to victory. That Steve would be so messed up that he would feel this desperation when Yao is rolling and we're up 10 would seem to stretch things a tad. As to Cat, it would not be possible for his ego alone to deprive Yao of the ball for long stretches, even in the unlikely event that that was his intention. Moreover, it would neccesitate the conclusion that Steve and Cat would knowingly sabotage what's working ( Yao) simply to fuel their own egos..something which I think is silly to even suggest. When Yao is not hot, it is quite possible that Steve and Cat overlook the long-term benefit of staying with Yao and letting him work out of it because they feel that taking over is the better short-term answer, but that isn't the circumstance we're talking about here, so we'll chalk that up to another discussion. The obvious response would be to assume that it's a combination of these, but I have simply seen too many times where none apply to go for it...and yet I am at a loss to explain it myself. Logic would dictate that where there is a pattern, there is a reason, but I cannot percieve it. I am hoping that others will be able to offer solutions, for I am without any which work for me. As I said, though, I again ask that people please offer substantive, logical arguments based on observation rather than empty emotional arguments based on preconceptions.
Sorry JAG. You get an A for effort, a 1 star thread rating from me. Save this kinda stuff for a time when we don't stomp a team by 15 points.
my only guess is that JVG sees something we do not? maybe yao has told him that he can only handle so many touches a game due to fatigue? and JVG sees this as playing to the oponents by limiting his effectivness by continuing to feed him.. I know yao is a good passer and he creates spacing and open shots for his teammates but maybe JVG sees a different defensive set by the opposing team and wants a different offensive set to combat it? tough question. i would continue to feed yao over and over again.
MacB, it's not just your standard Hakeem Olajuwon double we are talking about here. Yao, unlike Hakeem, Patrick, etc., has to face double teams before he can even get the ball. Given his strength deficiency and his average hands/slow leaping, he has a very difficult time getting the ball in that situation, and we don't really have enough shooters to make the other team pay for doing this (and if we do--what happens? Criticism for the ball not going to Yao) Look at Hakeem. Even though we had accomplished entry passers and decent shooters, and he was in his prime and many times the player Yao is now, we still had trouble with the Zone when Seattle played it. I'm just not really sure what to do about it.
I don;t get it...so if Yao or Steve were to take 75 shots in a game, and we wone, you'd not feel the need to comment on what happened? I know the phrase " They don't ask how, they ask how many.", but from both coaching and playing, I can tell you that patterns matter a lot longer than box scores.
Defenses DO Adjust I think you hit the nail on the head right here MacBeth. Anytime you have a player on a roll, particularly a post player, you most certainly will see the defense adjust after a timeout of sorts. Even if it's just a single defender, you know as well as I do, that defenders can and will "overcommit" (i.e. "overplay" the ball) when the opposing player is "hot." While Yao or any post player could conceivably go backdoor in a situation like this, backdoor passes can often be low percentage passes if not timed right. Alternatively, we also see some opposing guards "cheating" on defense by 1/2 fronting Yao. i.e. defending against the entry pass. It would be wrong, in such a case, to not swing the ball to another offensive player. Looking forward, I think the more important gauge is what happens during crunch time. To date, I've seen but one game where Yao was given the ball and really carried us through to the end. Will there be such trust in future close games? I hope so. For this vantage point, I think JVG is similar to RudyT insofar as playing the hot hand/percentages. I, personally, have nothing wrong with spreading the wealth in the first three quarters. In fact, I prefer it, b/c it brings more balance to the offense and helps get ALL players into a comfortable rhythm. The key thing for me is how willing our guards are to yield the ball to another player when the "hot hand" happens to be either Yao, Jackson, or Taylor. I've noticed that Taylor seems to have the green light blessing insofar as being a "trusted hand" down the stretch. Jim Jackson, oddly enough, tends to disappear. What would be nice though is to see Yao help close out games more b/c (1) he shoots a nice percentage and (2) he has the ability to get to the line. Only time will tell. Happy Thanksgiving all! theSAGE
As long as we win, I'm happy. I don't care if Moochie friggin' Norris scores 62 points on 185 shots, if we win, I'm a happy camper. I watch basketball because I love the Rockets, no matter how they play. I save the complaining and the negativity for the times when they lose, because well, then it's time to vent. But why stress myself over the small stuff when we win, especially by a good margin? I'm going to sit back and enjoy this win, enjoy our record, and let the coaches and players worry about the negative things involved with our win. I know a BBS is for discussion, but what's the point in arguing over something good? It doesn't have any effect on anything, except bringing more ill-needed negativity to this forum.
If Yao's Hot, Odds Are There's a Mismatch Here Surely, such a mismatch is worth exploiting. And with most teams, we do indeed have an unfair advantage with Yao at center. IMHO, Yao could conceivably be one of those 30 ppg players. But we're blessed with a team that has other wellsprings of offensive firepower. Thus, Yao doesn't need to bear the whole burden. In the long-run, I think we're better off b/c of this b/c we have a far more balanced team than say, The Timbercubs or the Mavericks. Furthermore, defensive adjustments are harder to make late in games than early. Thus, I'd much rather see Yao get hot in the third and fourth quarters than early on. Then again, if Yao is invisible in the first quarter, his efficacy as a passing center is weakened too. It's truly a tough question to answer. Nevertheless, I think balance is still the key. Even the hottest of hands can't shoot over 50% consistently so. Everybody, even the best of shooters, will regress to their mean. theSAGE
Sam-- I wholeheartedly agree that defensive adjustment explains some of this, but not all. For one thing, I have seen too many contrary examples...for another, the annoucers tonight were noting examples in the second half of Yao being open but ignored... ...but forget all of that for a second and remember just one thing: If you give a defensive adjustment so much credit that you don't even test it's effectiveness, you're simply helping out the other team.
Sage, as usual, well said. Please don't think I'm dismissing you by saying that I think I answered your comment with my response to Sam.
Yeah...I'm assuming there's something I'm missing too, just don't know what. I have reviewed game tape on this, and discussed it with b-ball reporter friends, and none of us understand it completely, though all of us see it. I would have mentioned it earlier, but wanted to avoid a Yao-only ( as much as I hate labels) fan stampede, but it's not getting any bette,r so I thought I'd bite the bullet. Simply put, if you have a star, and he's hot, you find a way to get him the ball untilwhatever counter the defense uses proves effective. We don;t do that...we simply stop passing him the ball. I'd like to understand why.
I think almost all of the reasons you mentioned do happen, especially the defensive adjustment. I think there were three times tonight when Yao was open and ready for the ball that he didn't get it. On the bright side Steve lobbed a pass over a fronting defender and Yao was able to catch it. One other reason that Yao might not get the ball a lot more is his high rate of TO pre amount of time he has the ball. Maybe if the situation could involve Yao being too far out and having to bring the ball down, the team doesn't want to get it in to him even if he's only single covered. Overall I really don't think that Yao is being frozen out that much this year, and I think it's probably not one of the top priorities the team needs to work on.
sagehare and MacBeth, you two are my favorite posters in here. You guys really know what you are talking about and always give a thorough analysis. i joined this site to be able to talk to people who know basketball and obviously you guys know a lot. To address MacBeth's thread: I think the single largest component is the defense's adjustment. When a guy is torching you, the other coach is stupid not to emphasize DENY BALL during timeouts. I mean when I play basketball against a better player I try to deny ball, and this strategy is good at all levels. During the Hakeem days you couldn't double off the ball, now you can, so it's even easier to deny ball. However some of the onus has to fall and Steve and Cat. If the defense is trying to take away your biggest weapon, you have to find a way to force feed him the ball. When someone goes 6/6 in the first half, some how, some way you need to get him some shots in the second half. The guards need to commit to giving Yao the ball. Shaq and Duncan cannot be taken out of a game by defensive adjustments, part of it is because they fight for touches better than Yao, but another part is that their teammates are committed to running the offense through them in spite of defensive adjustments. I don't think the Rockets can win consistently if Yao can be taken out of the game like that. We'll be a mediocre deam like the Clips, but not good teams like the Blazer (consistently). I tried to pin the fault on Cat Mobley, coming of a 17 point game in which he took 20 shots. I hypothesized that he was a inefficient player and that Moochie Norris could score 17 on 20 shots. However, I calculated the PPS stat for the season for Cat and Yao, and they are almost the same and higher than the league average, since Cat has been shooting well from three. So there you go, Cat is not the antichrist. His game still bothers me though.
Ehh, I don't know, I think dropping the ball in to Yao when he is both fronted and "backed" or "sided" is a recipe for disaster. He's not a real good catcher, and our other players aren't real good passers. Plus, he has that annoying tendency to bring the ball down when he's guarded, and that is suicide with a double team. I think another counter has to be devised to this particular plan.
In responce: In the Rockets V Clippers I was quite surprised at the big improvement that Yao Ming showed in his stamina versus recent games,things are looking on the upside. In the first half the Rockets played a Team Game and Yao Ming played an almost perfect half. In the third quarter Yao Ming was delberately taking himself out of plays by moving away from his receiving area, almost by design to let others have a go. It wasn't so much that the Guards played a selfish quarter or the way he was guarded,it was Yao Ming avoiding the spotlight. I mention this because the usual situations mentioned by MacBeth and Sam were not the case in this game.
