I know this is going to sound like more Rafer scapegoating...

... But after watching the Rockets these last few seasons, and especially the last four games, I am becoming firmly convinced that Rafer Alston is the root cause of our fourth quarter chokes. Not the sole reason, but the root cause.

The guy fools us every once in a while by hitting a big shot late in a close game (usually a wide open three, on his third attempt of the quarter), but he is absolute balls in the crunch. I can't count how many 1-on-3 DOA fastbreaks he hardheadedly decides to try to complete by himself with an ill-advised jumpshot, or how many turnovers he has on handoffs to McGrady or post-ups to Yao late in the game, or just passes in general. Sometimes even off of the dribble, which is supposed to be his specialty (I will never forget that pivotal turnover he had to Deron Williams late in game seven last year when he tried to cross him up). To boot, he doesn't seem to pick up his defense enough in the 4th quarter when opposing PGs become much more aggressive, especially on the break.

He is the guy who - this season more than ever - initiates the offense and probably spends the most time with the ball in his hands. Consequently, I truly believe that a lot of his suckitude is contagious with some of our roleplayers. Rafer's biggest selling point is supposed to be that he is a "pure" PG and a playmaker. He is neither. So I think we need to try to close out a tight game with Brooks in the 4th Q. At least give it a shot, and see what happens. Even Francis showed more leadership and intelligence in that one game against Phoenix than I have EVER seen from Alston.

I got my hopes up during that 7-9 game stretch where he didn't suck, but in the back of my mind, I knew it would be short-lived. And even then, the only reason he was playing better is because, for whatever reason, he was making a lot of the exact same shots he is taking and missing now. He wasn't really playing any smarter.

 

Well then I guess my thread defeats the odds.

If you disagree, feel free to piss off. You will not be missed.

Relative to the teams of the last two seasons, no. Bob Sura, Jon Barry, and Mike James were big time. Yes, I know we didn't get any farther, but that team had some gutsy fourth quarter performances. They even had a couple of them in the playoffs. It wasn't until recently that our record without the lead heading into the 4th becamee so disgusting...

 

I agree that the inability to get Yao the ball has a lot to do with it. I know it was HUGE against Philly, and it caused some problems in other games, too, but for the most part, they were able to get Yao a touch at least once every couple posessions in the other games, even in the low block.

The problem was if they couldn't get the ball in, then one of two things would happen: they would try to force it in (turnover), or they would be completely lost on where to go now (McGrady's return has mitigated this problem). A lot of the blame for the latter option should fall on Rafer's shoulders. Other guys deserve some blame, too, but I believe Rafer is culprit number one for boning us with a bricked jumper, blown drive, or turnover on a pass when we can't get the ball to Yao.

 

Well, admittedly, this is based more on observations than anything else, but I think it is too small of a sample for stats to really be worth that much yet.

But regardless, my personal observations on something like this is really all I can use in this argument. I am not saying that Rafer is the only guy doing anything wrong in the crunch; I am saying that I get a strong impression that his mistakes are more costly than others because of the position he plays and the amount of time he controls the ball. I feel like it rubs off on people more when he plays poorly. So I don't think +/- stats will help very much in proving or disproving that unless we DO do something like bench Alston for the entire 4th quarter. Anyways, I don't think anyone would deny that Rafer has the lowest bball IQ of anyone in our regular starting lineup... maybe even anyone in our entire regular rotation. That's why the mistakes he makes seem so amplified in the 4th quarter. Stupid plays hurt more than just regular failed plays.

I don't think stats can do a lot for me here, but maybe people who have watched these games (are you one of these people?) can share with me their thoughts on whether they agree or disagree with my assessment.

 

You "gotta have" Yao and Rafer, but you DON'T "gotta have" T-Mac? Wow... I have no idea how McGrady doesn't make your "gotta have" list for the 4th quarter while Rafer does. I mean, sure, this team has more depth than we've had in the past, but damn...

Also, I think the collapse against Philly was much worse than the collapse against NO. If we could prevent the Philly collapse with McGrady, then we could definitely do it against NO.

 

He hasn't produced much at all in the last couple games, not just the 4th quarter.

He has been sort of on-again-off-again all season for us, though... I think he will get more and more consistent as the season wears on.

 

Hayes is still a significantly better defender than Scola.

In fact, I would still say he is easily the best 1-on-1 defender on the team.