Hurricane Season Predictions by the "Experts" - Could be 'Extreme'

The so-called hurricane experts, many of whom are known proponents of the AGW agenda, have pretty consistently over-estimated hurricane activity during hurricane season over the last eight years or so. Actually, it may be longer than that, but that is enough of a trend for us to start with. The way this appears to work is that these so-called experts make early predictions of a busy hurricane season, usually along side of some carefully phrased remarks that imply that this will be attributable to global warming. Many people in the general public then become somewhat agitated by these reports, which make them wonder if AGW is therefore an issue that the government needs intervene in and do something about. As the hurricane season moves along, the initial predictions generally turn out to be exaggerated, which I believe has been the case in six of the last eight years. Around mid-summer, the "experts" begin to issue revised predictions for the season with reduced hurricane activity, but these reports are not promoted by the MSM with anything near the fanfare that the reports of the original predictions were. As hurricane season ends, the MSM basically 'forgets' to follow up on the effectiveness of the predictions made by the experts. The people who originally became so agitated by the initial exaggerated predictions will have moved on to other issues, and because of the lack of coverage, appear to be blissfully unaware of this recurring pattern of behavior by the so-called hurricane experts, and the MSM.

So, let's just document these predictions at the outset of the season for a change, shall we? Then we can all follow along together as hurricane season progresses. To be fair, there is significant variation in hurricane activity from year to year, so maybe this year will be a whopper. But the trend has been lower in recent years, so I will believe that when I see it.

Also, if increased hurricane activity is to be regarded as evidence of anthropogenic global warming (AGW), then what is reduced hurricane activity to be regarded as evidence of?

In any case, here is an article predicting that the current upcoming hurricane season poses an 'above-normal' threat, and that it "has a chance to be an 'extreme' season." Maybe it will be, but the so-called experts have been so consistently wrong in their predictions, with a clear bias towards the high-side, that it seems like it could be a worthwhile exercise to watch this season play out, to find out if the experts have produced exaggerated predictions yet again.

[RQUOTER]Hurricane Season Poses ‘Above-Normal’ Threat, AccuWeather Says

March 10 (Bloomberg) -- The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than last year’s and poses an “above- normal” threat to the U.S. Gulf and East coasts, AccuWeather Inc. forecasters said today.

AccuWeather foresees 16 to 18 named storms forming in the Atlantic Ocean, with five becoming hurricanes and two or three of them going ashore in the U.S. as major systems. In all, 15 storms probably will be in the western Atlantic or the Gulf of Mexico, and seven may make landfall in the U.S., said Joe Bastardi, chief long-range and hurricane forecaster.

“This year has the chance to be an extreme season,” Bastardi said in a statement. “Certainly much more like 2008 than 2009 as far as the overall threat to the United States East and Gulf coasts.”

The Gulf of Mexico is home about 27 percent of U.S. oil and 15 percent of U.S. natural gas production, according to the Department of Energy.

Only nine named storms formed during the 2009 season, the fewest in 12 years, and three of them became hurricanes. Last year was the first time since 2006 that no hurricane hit the U.S. mainland. In 2008, there were 16 named storms, and eight of them were hurricanes.

The historical average is for 11 named storms, with six of them becoming hurricanes, two of them major. A tropical storm is given a name when its sustained winds reach 39 miles (63 kilometers) per hour, and it becomes a hurricane when sustained winds reach 74 mph.

Major Storms

A hurricane reaches major status at Category 3 on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale with winds of at least 111 mph. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

Bastardi said he raised his forecast from last year because of a weakening El Nino, the Pacific warming phenomenon that can suppress Atlantic storm development, and because waters are warmer than normal from Africa to the Caribbean while being cooler to the north, a common pattern in major storm seasons.

Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project made its initial forecast for the season in December, calling for 16 named storms with as many as eight of those becoming hurricanes, five of them major.

WSI Inc. in January predicted 13 named storms and seven hurricanes, three of them major, and the Commodity Weather Group called a month later for 11 named storms, as many as five of them hurricanes.

The federal Climate Prediction Center will release its forecast in May.[/RQUOTER]

 

LOL.

Very funny. Repped.

What makes your post so amusing is that there are people who actually think this way, but do not realize the absurdity of this mindset. Of course the ranks of those people include quite a few posters here on this board.

 

When the intellectual reservoir runs dry, the name calling begins. With GR, that seems to happen rather quickly on many occasions, as was obviously the case in this thread. Once again, he has born false witness against me, which is something he does routinely, apparently without hesitation or remorse. That speaks to the content of his character, and says nothing of substance about me. I am not even going to try and engage in a civil discussion about any objections he may have to the post that I made in response to his name-calling post. That is what would make no sense.

I have never visited a message board that I have spent any material amount of time on that has more name-calling and other similar juvenile conduct on it than the D&D Forum of Clutchfans. GladiatorRowdy has given us a fine demonstration of that kind of conduct here in this thread, and that is not out of character for him (or many others) here on this board by any means. In fact, I have come to the conclusion that the D&D forum must be completely unmoderated. If it is moderated, either the standards of moderation are so low that it is virtually impossible to detect the moderation going on, or the moderators are just sound asleep on the job pretty much all the time, which is effectively the same as leaving the forum unmoderated.

These kinds of personal attacks and name calling are offensive, scurrilous, and extremely juvenile. Hence the cry baby picture. The kind of petulant behavior displayed by GR in this thread reminds me of a crying baby, and I am confident there are others who agree. It is a very similar type of conduct. This kind of behavior also impresses me and carries as much weight with me as somebody else's crying baby does. Which is not very much.

 

Yes sir, they did.

Good post.