Here we go again. I guess it's always better to predict many storms than too few. http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/4388309.html Hurricane expert predicts more storms in 2007 Associated Press FORT COLLINS, Colo. — The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should have above-average activity, a top hurricane researcher said today. Colorado State forecaster William Gray predicted 14 named storms next year, including three major hurricanes and four other hurricanes. Gray and fellow researcher Philip Klotzbach said fewer hurricanes are likely to make landfall than in the record season of 2005.
I don't put one bit of trust into any of these predictions......too many factors at the time of the storm forming. But I guess it is safe to say more storms this year as last year was WELL below average. DD
I'm not sure they can tell me for sure if it's gonna rain tomorrow. But this guy is telling you how many storms there will be next year. Right.
2006 was relatively calm in relation to hurricanes......so predicting it would be more than less doesn't take a phD...............
Yeah, probably should of read the whole article, since it wasn't only a few sentences and not just the title............a little lazy........ .............but thanks for pointing it out
When it rains it pours... Who knows what will happen...El Nino, La Nina...All I know is I'm hungry...
well, considering the fact that they predicted that 2006 would be worse than 2005, I'm not putting much stock in this forecast
I don't see why they keep predicting hurricane numbers publicly. It's obvious that the current technology prevent us from making accurate predictions on this. So why throw numbers out there that you have very little confidence over? I'm all for research into weather patterns to get more accurate long term weather conditions. Just don't tell me stuff that are little more than educated guesses. Until the research and technology evolves to the point where we truly can semi-accurately predict the hurricane season, just keep it to yourselves. It only makes you look stupid when you turn out wrong.
Nevermind. http://www.reuters.com/article/scienceNews/idUSN2442542020070725?feedType=RSS&rpc=22&sp=true Forecaster cuts 2007 hurricane outlook NEW YORK (Reuters) -The 2007 hurricane season may be less severe than forecast due to cooler-than-expected water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, private forecaster WSI Corp said on Tuesday. The season will bring 14 named storms, of which six will become hurricanes and three will become major hurricanes, WSI said in its revised outlook. WSI had previously expected 15 named storms of which eight would become hurricanes and four would become major hurricanes. "Because the ocean temperatures have not yet rebounded from the significant drop in late spring, we have decided to reduce our forecast numbers slightly," said Todd Crawford, a WSI seasonal forecaster. The energy and insurance industries are keenly watching the 2007 storm season after the record damage caused by hurricanes two years ago. During the 2005 season, hurricanes Katrina and Rita devastated parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast and temporarily knocked out a quarter of U.S. crude and fuel production, sending energy prices to then-record highs. WSI's Crawford added that wind conditions due to the lack of an El Nino event were less conducive to formation of tropical storms. Despite the downgraded forecast, WSI still expects the 2007 season to be more active than last year, and added that storm-weary parts of the Gulf Coast could still be hit. "We feel the general threat to the western Gulf is reduced slightly, with a corresponding increase in the threat to the eastern Gulf and Florida," Crawford said.
So far, this is the Greg Oden of hurricane seasons. Let's see if it can pick up after the all star break and make a late run for ROY...
Don't forget that the busiest time of the year for hurricanes is between August 1 and September 15. It has been a quiet year mainly due to large amounts of African dust over the Atlantic keeping ocean temps cooler than normal. They will rebound, however, and we will see hurricanes before it's all over. The big concern is that the Caribbean is SIGNIFICANTLY warmer than this same time even in 2005. If a storm passes through the straits between the Yucatan and Cuba, it will blow up big time. The good news is the water in the western Gulf (i.e. along the Texas coast) is much cooler and continues to remain that way. In addition, the loop current eddy that spawned the rapid intensification of both Katrina and Rita is significantly smaller, cooler and further north than in 2005. The weather pattern is about to change in the next couple weeks as a high pressure area builds in over the east coast, which won't allow any Atlantic storms to re-curve out into the ocean. That brings a much higher probability of a strike on the US coastline.
