A couple weeks away from the deadline..... I normally wait a few posts before giving my opinion in a poll thread, but I'll just go ahead with this one: I think chances are Carmelo sits out the year and goes to NY as a FA. Nuggets painted themselves into a corner pulling the "not good enough" two times too many with the top bidder (Nets) and would now have to lose major face accepting a significantly inferior deal and/or deal with the last team in the world they'd want to (Knicks). Knicks are less inclined to deal....because why should they throw away good pieces now to get a guy they should get for next year anyway? Plus, getting him now also means paying his extension which will be a far higher price tag than a FA contract. Paranoia is the only incentive for making a trade. Chicago's shown no interest. Rental trade (us, Dallas) is the only other thing out there...but it doesn't seem like Denver's actively searching for one. They know trading him out kills the team and kills the box office. Why not ride out the lame duck season, enjoy one more postseason, and see if the new CBA lets them buttrape Anthony and the Knicks with a franchise tag?
They should only trade him on their terms. If they can't get significant value, they should let him walk after the season, then trade Nene for young talent max value and significant cap space. The other thing we should remember about this situation is Melo has the option to not opt out as well and wind up keeping the last year of his $18 million contract. If Denver doesn't trade him and if the new CBA cuts salaries across the board by 1/3, I fully expect Melo to not opt out but to announce he is going to play out his contract and then move on. This would put Denver in the precarious position of going into next season knowing that Melo is leaving and the drama that we've seen unfold this season being unbearable on that team next season as Melo makes it very public that he is leaving. Melo could, in that scenario, force Denver to trade him, even if they had franchise tagged him, because of the drama surrounding the team and the risk of having to take on two guaranteed contracts of non-lottery first round draft picks that they likely would not want. In that scenario, they would put him up for bid and simply take the highest offer and get it done with. His trade value would go down significantly. Can't see Denver playing out the whole season next season with Melo in lame duck status.
The order of Melo's wants: 1. Trade to the Knicks now and sign his extension and the Knicks not have to wreck the roster. 2. Trade to the Knicks now and sign his extension even if it costs the Knicks some good pieces. 3. Go to the Knicks after the season as a free agent without his max extension. 4. .....................this is where it gets interesting. But, I suspect what he would really like at this point if he can't get one of 1-3, would be for Denver to trade Chauncey, Kenyon and other parts for a serious superstar or stars to play alongside him that would complement his game and make the Nugs a Finals contender coming out of the West for the next 5-8 years. 5. Trade to Chicago with extension in hand and Rose, Booz, and Noah still there. 6. Trade to a Western Conference team that he can see would be a perennial Finals contender. 1-3 I am pretty sure of. 4-6 i don't know the exact order of. What does Denver want: 1. Melo to sign the extension 2. Trade Melo anywhere but NY in the East for max value. (They want the Nets deal.) 3. Trade Melo to a team in the West that they know Melo won't sign the extension with in a deal that takes them out of luxury tax altogether and gives them the ability to rebuild on the fly.
I'll call Prokhorov's bluff and say New Jersey. At the end of the day, a deal with NJ seems to make the most sense for both parties. The Denver front office got the wake up call they needed. Time to stop being greedy and move on.
My guess is they cave in and accept a NY deal(could include a 3 team deal involving NY). My second guess is they hold onto him and he walks at season's end. In the end of all of this, he somehow, someway ends up as a Knick.
I'm also gonna call New Jersey's bluff and say he will be a Net come February 25. Prokhorov played it nicely by walking away from the table right now, and letting Denver know their greed will not be encouraged. However, he, along with everyone else, knows that ultimately, the only thing that will turn his franchise around is the addition of a superstar like Melo. He will then spend the next 2 months trying to convince Carmelo that in Brooklyn, they can take the city of New York by storm. I'm not 100% sure if by the END of it, Melo will be convinced, but I think he goes to the Nets for at least the remainder of this season.
Knicks one way or another, I'd say the favorite is trade at the deadline but I wouldn't rule out Denver keeping him and doing a sign and trade when the lockout ends to a few picks/players. To be perfectly honest, they could probably get a similar deal from Knicks now or in the summer, include a third team and it could be even better.
New York or Houston.....Unless somebody comes out of the blue with a crazy trade...What I want to know and have not heard is who the Rockets plan to trade and/or Keep in a Melo deal??? Anybody heard who the Rox would deal??
The further this season slips for the Rockets, the less likely we trade for Anthony, imo. 1. He won't be able to save the season if we sink too far. 2. Can Morey be confident that we'll be good enough with Anthony that we could convince him to sign an extension if we're not even good enough to stick near .500 without him?
