1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

How Rockets will be under 0.500 in 2022-23 season?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Ankara1923, Aug 6, 2022.

  1. Ankara1923

    Ankara1923 Member

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2021
    Messages:
    952
    Likes Received:
    1,493
    Thanks to ApacheWarrior for the analysis. Let's start individually:

    Jabari: If coaches don't put him "Alpiesque" under arrest he will score 12 points per game.

    Sengun: If he plays 30 min per game his scoring will be around 18 (he was a 15 points/30 min last year, small improvement and not too many rubbish rookie call this year)

    KPJ: 22 points is my expectation

    JGreen: In a Woodless era 28 points per game will be child play for him.

    it makes 80. If we consider JG+KPJ combo 45 instead of 50 or JSJ+AS combo 25 instead of 30 we still get 70-75 points. The other starter will generate another 10 (Gordon,Tate or whoever starts).

    Alpi can't defend? Do we watch the same games? Alpi's problem was not being unable to defend, it was not getting help. Even if he does not get help again Rockets should concede 120+ to lose too much games.

    As it was mentioned Rockets might tank heavily again, trade KPJ and and place Nix,TyTy or one of Dallas rejects to the starting line,.They might give Jabari 18 o 21 minutes per game, picks Garuba as starter,...Otherise it will be very difficult to finish the season 23/59 or 25/57. Some people say "delusion or crazy" but I ask a simple question and waiting for sane explanations such as Alpi can't score 15-18, KPJ is not anywhere around 20?

    I know that I am an optimistic guy and Rockets might finish something like 33-35 wins but how you convince yourself for low 20s wins with this roster? Tilman effect? Untrust to Silas? Intentional tanking?
     
    ApacheWarrior likes this.
  2. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2011
    Messages:
    7,500
    Likes Received:
    8,983

    That's just blaming Silas for .... everything that's wrong with this team.

    This bunch is so young, you expect them to struggle .... And you beg them to have the league's worst record & they deliver but some need a scapegoat ...

    If you ask me, Silas has worked wonders offensively with this roster.
    Youth.

    This rotation is incredibly young.
     
    Stephen_A likes this.
  3. Stephen_A

    Stephen_A Member

    Joined:
    Mar 18, 2016
    Messages:
    2,412
    Likes Received:
    2,193
    Yeah I agree. As i have written multiple times on this site, coaching can only take a team so far. If anyone has played organized basketball at any level they would understand this. Coaches themselves will tell you the same. They may enhance your game and motivate you but at the end of the day the 5 man tactical team on the floor has the responsibility to execute. This team may be a year or two away from competing and I do believe 2023 will be the year the team will be more defined and shaped the way the organization imagined with our large cap space.
     
    Corrosion and fckbandwagons like this.
  4. txtodd

    txtodd Member

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2008
    Messages:
    663
    Likes Received:
    476
    So you think we will be a middle of the pack team this year? Please list all the teams we leapfrogs and why. Be sure to include half the league.
    I read the names on the roster and the years of experience next to the names on the roster and think Ewww.
     
    luckyman76 and Stephen_A like this.
  5. AlperenSengun

    AlperenSengun Member

    Joined:
    Oct 12, 2021
    Messages:
    1,130
    Likes Received:
    2,226
    1)You can find teams who average 115 and have a losing record in the past seasons.

    2) last year rockets scored 109.7 per game. So if your analysis is off by 5 points, it changes everything. Even the numbers you quoted for players change 5 points from one of your posts to the other.

    3) 28 points is not childs play for anyone.

    4) And basic math: even if many things individually have a reasonably high chance of happening, the chances for them happening all of them at the same time is not high.

    I put $75 on rockets winning 24 games. It is for the fun of it but I am not sure if I wasted my money or not.
     
  6. AlperenSengun

    AlperenSengun Member

    Joined:
    Oct 12, 2021
    Messages:
    1,130
    Likes Received:
    2,226
    Another problem with your thinking is that, the first 4 players who score 80 per game do not play all games, even if they have no injuries. So in the remaining games, you need to have someone from the second group to make up for the missing player to get same total of 115.
     
  7. Believe It!

    Believe It! Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2015
    Messages:
    1,293
    Likes Received:
    1,769
    After watching summer league you think Christopher can run the point?
     
    napalm06 and ApacheWarrior like this.
  8. Verbal Christ

    Verbal Christ Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2009
    Messages:
    12,246
    Likes Received:
    17,987
    I Fk with OPs optimism. I may not see a .500 team but I think they win 30+ They can hit the ground running with an identity vs wasting a month tinkering with dumb 2 big lineups and rookie struggles. I know it’s going to be an exciting brand of basketball and I can’t wait.
     
    Ankara1923 likes this.
  9. Ankara1923

    Ankara1923 Member

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2021
    Messages:
    952
    Likes Received:
    1,493
     
  10. sirjesse

    sirjesse I wanted to go to Philly all along.
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2002
    Messages:
    4,734
    Likes Received:
    11,072
  11. RHU525

    RHU525 Member

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2002
    Messages:
    3,846
    Likes Received:
    4,907
    I like the optimism. Sengun will average a triple double and win MVP. Leading Rockets to a their 3rd championship after we make a deadline deal to bring Harden home.
     
    txtodd likes this.
  12. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    7,841
    Likes Received:
    11,115
    Well it's open to interpretation. What do you define as, "running point"

    Is Marcus Smart good at "running point?" Celtics went to the finals this past year

    Is Curry good at "running point?" (21/22) 6.3 Ast & 3.2 TOV's per game.
    (21/22): Porter was 6.2 Ast & 3.1 TOV's.

    I feel teams are trending towards combo guards filling in at both
    the 1 and the 2. Jalen Green is one combo guard we are sticking with.
    The other is up for debate.

    Celtics had Schroder but traded out that PG and moved Marcus Smart
    to run the PG. Brought in Derrick White to help as another combo guard.
    It was good but lacking just a little too much vs a talented team like GSW's.

    6'1" Payton Pritchard wasn't cutting it because of defensive liability.
    Now they went out and brought in 6'5" Malcolm Brogdan.

    Switch everything defenses are causing teams to trade out or sacrificing quality
    passers for better rebounding interior defender in the form of combo guards.
    Teams are asking everyone to pass.....not just limit it to one guy.

    -----------
    KPj (21/22): 15.6 pts...6.2 Ast...4.4 rebs...45.6 (FG%)...3.1 TOV...30.7 Ast%
    JC (21/22): 7.9 pts...2.0 Ast.....2.5 rebs...44.8 (FG%)....1.5 TOV...17.3 Ast% (18 mins)

    So basketball-reference.com has player projection function. It's per-36 minutes.
    KPj (22/23): 18.2 pts...6.8 Ast...5.1 rebs
    J C (22/23): 16.4 pts...4.1 Ast...5.3 rebs

    I think B-R.com is selling Porter short on his stats....but ok. So we go
    with Josh Christopher at point. Gives us an excuse for losing as
    we try for Wembanyama. If we miss on Wembanyama, some want
    Scoot Henderson. Since I see JC and Scoot Henderson as the same...
    It would probably be a platoon of JC/Green and Scoot Henderson.
    With JC and Scoot Henderson fighting it out for who starts. And that's
    if TyTy doesn't catch fire.
    ________


    I like a trade of:
    Houston in: Rui Hachimura
    x
    Wiz in: Kevin Porter jr / Kenyon Martin Jr / Nix


    works on trade machine

    Rockets have too many mouths to feed. Everyone is waiting on Durant and Donovan
    Mitchell deals......but both Nets and Utah want too much. So not happening.


    ---------
    *Just a side note: did Steve Kerr, BJ Armstrong, Beverley really run point....
    or did they bring the ball up and then defer to MJ, Pippen, Harden?
     
    fckbandwagons and Believe It! like this.
  13. marinara

    marinara Member

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2022
    Messages:
    279
    Likes Received:
    295
    Hot takes baby
     
    Corrosion likes this.
  14. AlperenSengun

    AlperenSengun Member

    Joined:
    Oct 12, 2021
    Messages:
    1,130
    Likes Received:
    2,226
    You are assuming everything will go in the best possible way. Look at last year's numbers. The starters won't play 70 Games. You expect all the players to make Solid improvements. For example You expect Sengun to play 32 minutes for 70 games. And perform at the same level. That is a big thing to ask for. You expect Green to go from 17 to 25 pts. That is also big. Jabari is a rookie. God knows how he will adjust to the nba and when. Plus no injuries etc.

    So, I think 30 wins is within reach. Anything beyond 32-33 would be a big surprise. 41 wins is literally impossible.
     
  15. AlperenSengun

    AlperenSengun Member

    Joined:
    Oct 12, 2021
    Messages:
    1,130
    Likes Received:
    2,226
    And one more thing. Sengun was basically carrying the second unit, With him moving to the first unit, the second unit might not be as good as last year.
     
  16. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    7,841
    Likes Received:
    11,115
    Well I'm not sure that's accurate. basketball-reference.com
    shows in Sengun splits that Sengun was 12.1 pts per 29.6 mins over 13 games.
    https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/sengual01/splits//2022

    But I won't squabble with you as I see Sengun get more post touches
    with cleaner looks or passing alleys / windows.

    I don't see Sengun scoring a vast amount more from there, but
    FT's will be an uptick. I mainly see Sengun passing improving from
    the post as Silas adds more movement and the team provides
    greater spacing.

    Wood was a better 3-pt shooter than Jabari or Tari are.....initially.
    But they seem to be more willing Catch-n-Shoot perimeter players
    than Wood was. Wood more often than not, wanted to put the ball
    on the ground and drive. Catch-n-Shoot from TaBari are going to increase
    assist totals in Green, Porter and Sengun

    basketball-reference.com projects Sengun at (per 36-mins)
    17.2 pts...4.5 Ast...9.5 rebs. I might go lower on pts...higher on Asts....lower in rebs.
    https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/sengual01.html

    ...because I don't think Sengun will get 36-minutes
     
    #36 ApacheWarrior, Aug 7, 2022
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2022
    Ankara1923 likes this.
  17. Believe It!

    Believe It! Member

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2015
    Messages:
    1,293
    Likes Received:
    1,769
    Sorry I said running the point. LOL

    That's a lot of typing.

    I get your point and agree. Not comparing Green to MJ or Kobe, but they were the primary ball handlers the majority of the time. Especially in crunch time. In that role (which I think Green will grow into) best to have another combo guard that can shoot and play D. I could see JC there, but he'd have to improve his shooting. Got a ways to go on turnovers due to erratic play, but he's young that should improve.

    I doubt they trade KPJ this offseason. If he has a good yr, has no issues and they feel like they're not wanting to pay him the bigger contract then maybe at the deadline.

    Come on training camp.
     
    ApacheWarrior likes this.
  18. iNoseBleedRed

    iNoseBleedRed Member

    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2013
    Messages:
    2,347
    Likes Received:
    2,386
    This goes on the Mount Rushmore of bad threads
     
    luckyman76 and YOLO like this.
  19. Ankara1923

    Ankara1923 Member

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2021
    Messages:
    952
    Likes Received:
    1,493
    JGreen scored 22.1 points per game after All-star break (24 games). The base for him is 22 points, not 17. If he scores less than 25 points per game, it is a failure.

    Alpi's figure was 15 points per 32 but refs will decide more positively this year. It is also very important that he is spending the summer under command of one of the best duo: Memo "the moneyman" Okur trains him for 3s,Ergin Ataman helps him to cover his weak sides and re-motivate him for winning culture. We will see - between 1st and 18th of September- (during Euro22) the effects on him. Seeing him to play alongside a big (likely Sanli of Barcelona) will give us some future ideas about Sengun-Jabari Jr frontcourt.

    I have no doubt for JGreen's 25-28 and Alpi's 15-18 points per game figures. If KPJ manages to score around 22,Rockets will be very difficult to beat.
     
  20. AlperenSengun

    AlperenSengun Member

    Joined:
    Oct 12, 2021
    Messages:
    1,130
    Likes Received:
    2,226
    If Green can extend his post all-star scoring performance to the whole season and play better defense it is a huge success.

    Alpi's figure was 15 points per 32. But he did not play 32 minutes. increasing your minutes by 50% is no small thing. We would be very very happy if he can score 14-15 points per 32 with the increased minutes. Again for him the main goal is 13-15 pts per 32 minutes and cut on the fouls and turnovers. That would be fantastic.

    KPJ scored 15.6 pts in 61games. You expect him to play 70 games and increase to 22pts per game. That is a ridiculously high bar.

    You have very high expectations for every one. As I stated before, one of your expectations can realize, but not all of them at the same time.
     

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now