If Yao repeats last years numbers a whole lot of you will be disappointed. 13.5 pts and 8 rebounds are nice for a rookie but not what is expected of an MVP. So what are you all expecting him to give the Rockets each and every night? I personally think that Yao will average 16 pts. and 9.5 rebounds. Not MVP numbers but a nice reasonable improvement.
That's a fair expectation. He's still in the process of adjusting to the NBA and not fully comfortable, but once he does in a couple more years - look out! Like realcap said, baby steps.
I think it'll depends on how much more playing time he'll get this coming season. 13.5pt/8.2reb/1.79blk is acctually very productive for 29min/g of acting. Yao ranked #13 in the league in "Efficiency Ranking Per 48 Minutes"; ranked #15 in "Rebounds Per 48 Minutes"; and #16 in "Blocks Per 48 Minutes". and he done this in his rookie season without the training camp and preseason. if given 34~36 min/g, and we run an "inside-out" offense like advised, I think Yao'll improve to 18pt/11reb/2.5asi/2.5blk. still very impressive numbers for a second year player. damm if Yao's lucky enough to play alongside someone named J. Kidd he'd already done that in his 1st season. btw, anyone notice that Yao, in his rookie season, already made a NBA record of highest field goal percentage over a six-game stretch, making 31-of-35 shot attempts for an accuracy of 88.6 percent from 11/9/02 - 11/21/02?
Not only will his points and rebounds be up, i would expect his assists to be up to a noticable figure. The addition of outside shooting and better shot selection will help his all around numbers.
13.5pts 8rbs last year. This year I am realisticly hoping for 17ppg, 9.5rpg, 2.5apg, 2.5bpg. I would LOVE to see him become a 20/10 guy but I don't think he is there yet. In fact the numbers i list (at least the pts and rebounds) are very similar to the numbers he was putting up in December of last year when he had his BEST month as a player. I am hoping he can hold those numbers "CONSISTANTLY" through the full season with very little let down. I think if he does that, that will be a nice step for him and show lots of improvement. I am hoping that Yao becomes our second leading scorer and our number one rebounder on the team this year.
I really think minutes will be the statistic that measures his progress. If Yao can turn into a player who has the stamina and defensive ability to stay on the floor for 35 minutes a game, I'll feel progress has been made. If he is noticably tired at the nd of the seeason again, or gets pushed off of his spot on the floor (offense or defense) I will be concerned no matter what his other numbers are.
I will avoid giving stat predicition as (a) that's been done before for Yao a number of times and, (b) they are all invariably a guess, and only right if you're lucky. But that doesn't avoid the question: How much better will Yao be? Personally, I think it is impossible to ignore Yao's size difference. Yes, when you look at him, you still don't say "beast". But comparing a picture of him/his arms from beginning of the season last year versus some of the Asian games is like night and day. Forget about the rumors of decreased speed. Asian basketball is a level below that of the NBA and it is not unrealistic to expect the game is played, therefore, at a slightly slower level - Yao will speed up when those around him do. I'll start questioning Yao's speed when he starts playing to lethargically in the NBA, and not until then. Let's not forget Yao's personality. He is a studier, he understands that he can take advantage of players and the game not only through is sheer size, but by studying weakness in his opponent and attacking there. Combine that with Yao's increased size, and I think you will see a better positioned rebounder and player around the basket in general. And take into account the JVG factor. If quotes can be believed, it is becoming more and more apparent that JVG wants an inside out game and will focus on Yao a lot. While Yao did a good job making his own shot last year, other than the high double post play that was overscouted and didn't work as well at the end of the year, Yao was rarely put in a position, close to the basket, where he could just catch a pass and score. Easier said then done, but I'm interested in seeing how JVG forces change on pick and rolls, screens across the lane, etc. Add increased playing time, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a 20/10 season from Yao. Regardless of the stats, though, in the end, it comes down to how much the team imporves. If we improve ten games and are the 6 seed, yet Yao stat's are still at 13/8, I won't care. I no longer believe Yao will "revolutionize" the game. I do beleive he can develop into a dominant, MVP type candidate year in and year out, ala a Tim Duncan or Shaq (although more like the former), but will he change the game like a Magic Johnson did, or like Jordan, or like Wilt (who literally forced rule changes in the game), I don't think so. He will just be very very very very good. Hopefully a multiple ring winner and hall of famer.
He is now 7'6" and 320 lbs. If the Brian Grants of the world thought they had to work their asses off to push him away from the basket last year then wait until this year. Yao will be able to set up much closer to the basket for two reasons. First because JVG has already stated that he expects Yao to set up closer to the basket and second because of Yao's increased size which will certainly come with increased strength. Add the fact that JVG has also said that he wants an inside / outside game and I expect a substantial increase in points per game. Further more, Yao should not get worn down as easily this year as he did last year since a 320 lb man does not have to work as hard to get position as a 300 lb man. This should help to conserve his strength for second halvs of games and later in the season. If we don't see the same type of drop off in performance then that will certainly go a long way towards improving his numbers significantly. 20 pts a game 10 rebounds a game 2 blocks a game 3 assists a game
He'll be better from an NBA standpoint, but I can't imagine he improved his game in China, more than likely the opposite... I read somewhere he gained 20 lbs. which is great, but I'll believe it when I see it... He needs to be back in the States ASAP to learn the JVG way of doing things... BTW, I'm still torn between him learning from PEwing... I would have preferred him learning from Hakeem or Moses...
Speaking of big men forcing rule changes; my personal favorite was when the NCAA, in response to Lew Alcindor, banned dunking. What vision. Also, is the name of the Lebaneese (no insult ment - I just can't spell) the Pepsi's? It is right on their chest in big letters. Team China appears to also. Why can't they just call themselves the Nike's like we do over here.
If Yao stops getting the rookie treatment from the refs, he will be a beast this year. No longer will defenders be allowed to hack away and push off w/ both arms in order to deny position.
