Not dogging the Clinton camp, but my question is how did the media and polls get this election so wrong up until election day?
My theory... I think the overwhelming consensus that Clinton was going to win and win big empowered more Republicans/Independents who might've been dissuaded from voting for Trump to cast a "what's it going to hurt; she's going to win, anyway, and I never wanted to vote for her" vote and that group was big. Remember, the Republican and Democratic candidates - regardless of who they were - were always going to get ~45MM votes. At this point, it only takes a few million votes to really, meaningfully swing the election. The other issue, I think: Garry Johnson wound up with ~4MM votes, up from 1.2MM in '12. If, as suspected, that push was largely Democrats casting a protest vote against Hillary... I mean, go look at Pennsylvania - there's your election right there. And if that was indeed a bunch of pissy liberals wasting their vote, **** them. They are the embodiment of liberal elitism - they didn't punish Hillary; they selfishly and irresponsibly punished a large group of people - immigrants, women, LBGT, people of color - who will continue to be held down and marginalized - all because Hillary might sign-off on a pipeline, as if any damage from that will be close to the catastrophic impact Trump will have on climate. Seriously, Gary Johnson, a joke of a candidate, picked up nearly 3MM votes last night. I mean, among a laundry list of seemingly unending things I can't fathom, that's near the top.
Well there's several factors. One is that Trump managed to win a lot of the union vote in the rust belt and I don't think many thought that was possible for someone pretending to be a Republican. Another is that the assumption that Obama could mobilize the black vote to get out for Hillary they way they got out to vote for him was false. Without Obama actually on the ticket, the numbers just weren't there.
It's like they have no idea what they are doing, and know nothing of how the average American thinks. The media only pays attention to the east and west coast, and like Hollywood and Washington, DC - continually overlook the "flyover states." Tens of millions of people voted for Trump as a protest to the system. You can't easily predict that. Also, Gary Johnson likely won Trump nearly every swing state - as his votes easily eclipsed the differences. This loss falls completely on the DNC, for corruptly silencing the tens of millions of Bernie Sanders supporters during the primaries by colluding with HRC's camp. A huge chunk of Gary Johnson's supporters - were Bernie Sanders supporters who were voting against the DNC.
OP, several things to consider. 1. It is becoming ever-harder to poll the American public accurately. Who has a land line, and who answers questions honestly? I will always believe a lot of people wouldn't admit "Trump" in public but pulled the lever for him in private. The media just reported what the polls were saying, and the polls had a systematic error, under sampling Trump's real vote. 2. Turnout turnout turnout. Hillary Clinton has never excited a voting base, and polls struggle to reflect this accurately. Worst turnout for a POTUS election in 20 years, and as I've said in another thread, Trump and Clinton both got fewer votes than John McCain in 2008. Think about that. 3. Agree with a previous poster that we under-estimated the actual affect of having a 4% Johnson, or what-have-you. Credit to fivethirtyeight, IMHO, who gave Trump a much larger chance than other outlets/models. They also showed a significant chance of Trump winning the electoral college and losing the popular vote -- it looks like that might be the final outcome (but the popular vote is pretty close.)
I disagree you couldn't predict this. Trump making it as the nominee was the wake up call. The media and dems just didn't want to believe it.
No one wanted to see Hillary's ugly cow face for the next 8 years on TV. That's what it ultimately came down to.
not all the polls got it wrong. IBD/TIPP has been the most consistent poller for the last few elections and they had trump up 2 points. LA times ahd trump up 5 points
She's going to win the popular vote by 4% or so, which shows that she was the more popular of the two candidates - she just wasn't able to keep less than 1% of the vote she needed in 4-5 swing states. It is tough to predict that Trump would pull off all of the swing states he did - all by about 1% or less.
I call horseshit on this. There were plenty of valid reasons to vote against Hillary, far more important and scary than her vagina.
I think there were plenty of reasons that a voter might want to vote against her but come on you can't pretend sexism just doesn't exist. The same goes for racism with Obama (even though he won both times). Perhaps your vote wasn't tied to sexism but that doesn't mean that it wasn't a factor at all. Sexism is a problem in this country and a challenge that is in some ways harder to grapple with than racism. I just hope we can all agree that it is a reality in some form. We can debate to what extent sexism exists but I would hope that you would acknowledge that women face challenges that men simply don't have to deal with.
Sexism played a role in this election about as much as Donald's terrible hair or orange tan. In the 18 months of this election cycle, I've met and talked to hundreds and hundreds of people regarding this election... and have never once heard someone say that they wouldn't vote for a woman. Sure, there are people out there who would say that - but the number of them who would are so miniscule that they are insignificant. People are simply grasping at straws to try and explain what they feel is the unexplainable. Blindly ignoring the countless things Hillary has done wrong over the past thirty years. They chose the wrong candidate, and WikiLeaks proved that for us ten-times over.
Wasn't this one of the sentiments on why the Brexit happened as well? That no one thought that it would happen anyway?
I'm not buying the sexism either. It goes both ways. Many people voted for her because she was a woman. It's hard to say if it helped or hurt unless you specifically poll voters whether her gender mattered.
ive heard plenty of people on this forum today call trump supporters stupid,white people. I have yet to hear anyone on this board refer to hillary supporters as stupid women. Hillary lost cause she is loathsome and corrupt. She got what she deserved.
One thing I've learned from the hilarity of last night's reactions to the results, is that the "tolerant left" is anything but tolerant.
The racists came out of the woodwork and surprised everyone. They showed up when they needed too. Women were lazy.
