Fire away! viaTPM -- Silent Majority TPM Reader KB may be on to something: --David Kurtz http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/
I realize this board is overwhelmingly liberal but I really think you're all in for a big shock if you really think this election is going to be one sided. There's no way the GOP goes down as easily as some of you seem to be predicting.
I don't think it's going to be easy, but I do think it's going to be easier than the primary was. McCain's nowhere near the politician Clinton is and he won't even have access to the money she had. I expect the GOP to fight with all they have and to stop at nothing (and I mean nothing). I also expect it to be a blowout for Obama. But I wouldn't mind being wrong about that as long as he wins, which I have every confidence he will.
Your (over)confidence is amazing, but I can understand it somewhat. Obama has some serious bumps coming up and McCain will markedly improve. It early June.
I guess you're right. I'm just clouded by my focus on issues like, oh, let's see... Iraq The economy The environment Health care Education Truth in government And superficial X-factors like, um... Personality Idealism The enthusiasm gap The oratory gap Likability, favorability, etc. Consistence in principled positions (i.e. that pesky flip flop stuff) The obvious advantage of not running as a Republican The obvious advantage of not running on Bush's record The historic nature of Obama's campaign My judgment is so clouded by all the above, admittedly minor things that I keep forgetting to focus on McCain's obvious advantages. What were they again?
I agree Obama will beat McCain in November. As Batman said, he survived the Clinton killing machine. McCain won't even attempt 1/4 of the antics the Clintons unloaded on Obama. McCain is a really weak candidate. There was a reason why he lost to Bush.
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Talking Points is kind of one sided. Obama has had a lot of momentum with winning the nomination, being the first black guy, historical, and all over that other crap. Basically he's firing at all cylinders. McCain on the other hand has been out of the picture, and the republicans have been dead in the water. People know about the economy, know about iraq, don't like Bush. Yet, all the polls show it's a virtual tie. It's a tie, while McCain's being priced for doom and Obama is being priced for perfection. Any small improvement will greatly benefit McCain, and any small disappointment will greatly hurt Obama. And with all this going for Obama, they are still tied.
16 million people voted in the Dem primaries. Only half of them voted Obama. Give us a week or two or three to unite and check the polls then. Also, due to the exciting nature of the Dem primaries, McCain hasn't hardly been covered at all. He's getting his first major look in months now. The polls likely reflect the outdated meme about McCain being a maverick and/or a moderate -- two things that haven't been true in any way whatsoever for about 8 years. How many people do you think know that he voted 95% of the time to support Bush's policies? (Hint: Not as many as are about to.) How many people do you think want a continuation of those policies? (Hint: It's more than 20% and less than 30%.) Finally, name one issue - just one issue - on which McCain might be at an advantage in this race going forward. He sure as hell doesn't want to talk about the economy and whenever he does it hurts him. That, while the economy is the number one issue according to voters. Instead, he wants to talk about Iraq. Guess what? So does Obama. And they are polar opposites on the issue: Obama opposed the war from the start and wants to begin a phased withdrawal as soon as it can be done responsibly; McCain favored the war from the start and wants to continue it indefinitely. Guess which side the American public's on? That's right: Obama's. So why does McCain keep focusing on it? Answer: He'd rather talk about anything in the world than the economy. It's all well and good to say Obama supporters are overly confident, but the title of the thread is "How can McCain beat Obama?" I'm not aware of anyone even trying to answer that question in this thread other than to say, "He just will." That's a pretty weak argument if you ask me. Then again, it's not like there's a stronger one.
I don't know who Hannah Montana is, but you annoy me every once in a while too so it's all good. Did you want to post anything on-topic while you're here? I'd love it if anybody would at least try to answer the OP's question.
Check the polls after the Republican convention. McCain will get a bounce out of it. This happens every election cycle. This election will be close. It will be decided by the battleground states.
Well, they'll both get bounces out of their conventions. I'd argue Obama will get more of one on account of the historic nature of his campaign, the fact that he's accepting the nomination on the 45th anniversary of the "I Have a Dream" speech, the fact that he gives great speeches and the fact that McCain gives lousy ones. So I'm not sure how you could consider the conventions an advantage for JM. On your other point, which states do you consider to be battlegrounds?
As I said before I won't be upset about being wrong if it's close and Obama wins, but I really don't understand why everyone keeps saying it's going to be close like there's something behind that idea. Everybody's saying it's going to be close but nobody's saying why. I suspect most of this conventional wisdom is based on the idea that McCain has crossover/independent appeal but the last time that theory's been tested was in 2000, when he truly was a maverick. Since that time he's pledged a long term commitment to an unpopular war which he still argues was a good idea (an idea that runs completely counter to public opinion), he's reneged on his popular opposition to the most radical of the religious right, he's taken both sides of the tax and immigration issues, he's completely given up his "straight talk express" thing as evidenced by those two great youtube videos (and, more to the point, his having taken both sides of ever so many issues) and he's voted with a vastly unpopular president 95% of the time. All this while Americans have a demonstrated hunger for turning the page on the Bush years. Meanwhile Obama's been thoroughly tested over the last few months and has seemingly weathered the storm on inexperience, bittergate, Wright, Rezko, resistance to and jokes about a Black man named Barack Hussein Obama and various untrue email smears about his religion and patriotism. None of that seems to have stuck. What is McCain going to throw at Obama that Clinton didn't? And what is he going to throw that's powerful enough to make Americans forget that if this won't quite be Bush's 3rd term it will be in the 95th percentile? From Iraq to the economy to energy policy to secrecy to climate change to health care, Americans are very unhappy with the way things are going in this country. They are, in huge numbers, pissed off and hungry for change. Even McCain acknowledged that, however awkwardly, in his speech Tuesday night. Why in the world would anybody predict this was going to be close?
Wait wait wait wait a minute. What in the bloody hell are you talking about. Hannah Montana is fine quality tv programming.
Who's this "everyone?" I don't think it'll be close at all. It'll be vicious, but not because of the two candidates, in my opinion. The RNC and creepy, shadowy groups on the fringes of the GOP (with big dollars secretly backing them) will make it vicious. I suspect that some of Obama's ardent supporters will respond in kind, although it'll piss Barack off, as the ads by the creepy GOP chumps will piss off John McCain. Hillary Clinton, as the VP or not, will campaign hard for Obama, making some here feel like chumps. Most women will decide Obama might work for their issues after all, because Hillary Clinton supports him, even if some of them don't believe Barack Obama. After the dust settles, Obama wins by at least 10 percentage points. It's getting to be a bit tiresome hearing it, but Americans really do want a change, and John McCain will be tied to George W. Bush by his own words and by the Democratic Party, as he should be. Result? Landslide. Book it. Impeach Bush. Hurry!
