According to my theory: Let's start from the history. Since mid 80's(considered as the beginning of Modern NBA), only 6 teams have won championships (listed with their franchise player): Boston---Bird(No.6 pick, 1978), McHale(No.3 pick, 1980) LA---Magic(No.1 pick, 1979), Worthy(No.1 pick, 1982), Kareem(No.1 pick, 1969) Detroit---Isiah(No.2 pick, 1981) Chicago---MJ(No.3 pick, 1984), Pippen(No.5 pick, 1987) Houston--Dream---(No.1 pick, 1984) San Antonio -- Duncan(No.1 pick, 1997),Robinson(No.1 pick, 1987) LA---Shaq(No.1 pick, 1992), Kobe(No.13 pick, 1996) Among all the franchise players, only Shaq and Kareem had served other team before joining their championship squad. And all of them were lottery picks. So there are three CHAMPIONSHIP RULES: 1. The franchise players must be aquired from draft or draft day trade. 2. The franchise players must be lottery picks. 3. If Lakers get a super center via trade or FA, the above 2 rules don't apply. According these 3 rules, following players are not going to lead ttheir teams to the championship next year: C-Webb, Sheed, Marbury, Ray Allen, Arenas, Brand, Kidd, T-Mac, Stack, Allan Houston, Big Ben, JO'Neal, Mash, SAR and Rose. Rest of the teams have chance to win it all. They are 76ers(AI), Cletics(Pierce), Heat(Butler) Bucks, Raptors(VC), Cavs(Lebron?), Spurs(TD) Mavs(Dirk), Wolves(KG), Jazz, Rockets(Yao, Steve) Grizzlies(Gasol), Nuggets(Melo??), Lakers( Shaq, Kobe) Warriors(Jamison?), Clippers After getting rid of super weak teams, we have: 76ers(AI), Cletics(Pierce), Spurs(TD) Mavs(Dirk), Wolves(KG), Rockets(Yao, Steve), Lakers( Shaq, Kobe) Finally, East can't win, so we have: Spurs, Mavs, Wolves, Rockets, Lakers oh yeah!
see rule 3... Finally, East can't win, so we have: Spurs, Mavs, Wolves, Rockets, Lakers I still put us 5th out of 5 on that list...