Houston We Have Liftoff (Foxsports)

I've been following the Houston Rockets at a distance this whole season, and I was pretty disappointed in them up until recently. I even considered dropping them from my list of contenders at midseason because they just hadn't played well at all. In fact, here's what I said about them on January 25th, 3 games after McGrady came back:

"They’re the biggest stretch on the list and might not even make the playoffs. However, they’re an elite-level defensive team, and they still have half a season to try and get McGrady to buy into Adelman’s system...However, they’ve still got 40 games to work things out, and I think a McGrady easing his way back in after injury still has a chance to integrate himself into the offense. I think this team either takes off in the second half or they piddle along for a while before collapsing."

You know, I think 16-1 since McGrady's return might qualify as taking off. So, what's changed in the last few weeks that has Houston playing so well? Like I did a while back with Portland, I'm going to take a look at the Rockets' streak both statistically and what I've seen when I watched them.

The first thing to note is the recent play of McGrady. I've remarked multiple times on how T-Mac's ball domination and constant isolation plays were killing the Rockets' offense. That's changed since McGrady came back from his injury. He's still scoring, but not as much, and he's taking less shots. The drastic difference though is seen in his passing ability, from 4.6 APG in November to 7 APG in January. McGrady's size gives him the ability to see and pass over basically any defender he's faced with, which is deadly in Rick Adelman's offense which features a lot of back-cuts. He's still a great option to have when the clock is running down and he still has those times when he gets hot and carries the team, but more and more he's fitting into the offense and getting his teammates easy looks.

The other big thing that's immediately noticeable is the increased production from the PF spot. Luis Scola has begun to start games and get more minutes and he's doing more with them. He moves so well without the ball and he's finally figuring out Adelman's offense, so he's getting himself easy shots and converting (leading to his 58.9% shooting this month). One of the most surprising developments in the league has been emergence of Carl Landry as a legitimate contributor on a playoff team. I panned the drafting of Landry at the time, but 'm eating my words now. He's ridiculously strong and has great hands, so he finishes almost everything he gets near the rim, and he's a pretty decent mid-range shooter. Most impressive might be the way he has quickly adjusted from being the primary option in college to moving off the ball and finding open space for easy shots. He and Scola both are very good with their spacing, and they're making teams pay for helping off them. What surprises me though is that the increased minutes have come at the expense of Chuck Hayes and the Rockets haven't suffered defensively or rebounding the ball. As a result, they've been a much-improved offensive team while maintaining their solid defense.

So, what do the stats from Houston's streak tell us? Well, most notably they're averaging almost 7 more points per 100 possessions, a huge jump from where they were from the rest of the season. Why are they so much better? Immediately what jumps out are the teams' assist numbers. The Rockets are averaging almost 5 more assists per 100 possessions, and they've assisted on 66% of their made FGs during the streak vs 57.7% for the rest of the year. All that extra ball movement and their turnovers are actually down, averaging 3 less TOs per 100 possessions. That ball movement results in the increased shooting percentages and better offensive efficiency that we see. It certainly looks as though the team is getting adjusted to Adelman's offense.

Defensively, I think Houston might be playing the best defense of any team in the league right now. I'm not sure how many people realize just how good this defense is because it doesn't jump out at you as you watch them. They don't block a ton of shots or force a lot of turnovers, and if you were just watching them play your team you'd probably think your guys just had a bad shooting night. However, if you pay attention to the Rockets, you'd notice that a lot of teams seem to have "bad shooting nights" against them. It's the thing that statistics finds almost impossible to quantify in individual players, the ability to play solid D and force tough shots. Houston has a few guys who are very good at making you take a tough shot over them (Battier, Hayes, Landry), but they also play fantastic help defense, rotating well in pick and roll situations and doing a good job of "helping the helper". Lastly, of course, there's Yao, who has the ability to block or alter shots without leaving his feet, meaning that he doesn't give up rebounding position to make your shot tougher. Put it all together and you've got a really good defensive team.

So what do things look like going forward for the Rockets? Well, first of all they play their next four games at home against Washington, Memphis, Denver and Indiana before they go play at Dallas, so there's a pretty good chance that they run this streak to 16 games. More importantly, this doesn't seem to me like a team that just got hot. This is a team that has genuinely made some huge progress during the season. I think McGrady came back from injury looking to integrate himself in the offense, and that Scola is getting better and better as he adjusts to the NBA game. Combine that with the emergence of Landry and the recent acquisition of Bobby Jackson (who played under Adelman in Sacramento) and you have a deep and talented team that is improving each game. The McGrady injury is looking more and more like a blessing in disguise. It got the rest of the team sharing the ball and moving it around well in order to score, and when McGrady came back he fit in and the role players were better for the experience. Also, that's 11 less games on McGrady's back this season, meaning he should be fresher come playoff time.

To me, few teams are exhibiting the kind of offense/defense balance that Houston is showing right now, and I think they're legitimately one of the top title threats. Obviously there's almost no predicting who comes out of the West this year. However, after seeing how they've begun to play offensively, I feel more comfortable now with saying the Rockets are contenders than I was at the beginning of the season.

http://community.foxsports.com/blogs/xphoenix87/2008/02/25/Houston_We_Have_Liftoff

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