Just thought it was interesting to see the candidates beginning to line up in anticipation of Brown's final term ending. The candidates... Michael Berry - current first-term councilman, Berry has almost no chance. He has very little money and though he is relatively moderate (especially compared to his GOP rival), he has Alan Blakemore as a consultant. Blakemore represents the right wing arm of the GOP in Harris County including the Hotze clan. Berry's main problem is that he is a newcomer with almost no skill at raising money. Bill White - head of the state Dem's party, White is an interesting candidate. He certainly has the clout to raise money and could be a formiddable candidate because he is a credible businessman and he is not a far-left Dem. He's definitely one to watch. Sylvester Turner - Turner is a long-time politican and friend to Brown. He nearly beat Bob Lanier if it weren't for the report on channel 13 that was leaked a week before the election about him that turned out to be false. In fact, he had a 10 point lead at the time and there were rumors that Lanier's campaign leaked the false info. Turner, assuming no other African American runs (see below), seems a near shoe-in for a runoff, but a lot will be dependant upon his grassroots campaign. His consultant is Frank McCune who, curiously, did Sanchez' campaign last year. Orlando Sanchez - the far right Hispanic is poised to run again. He has the financial support from conservatives and Hispanics and has a legit consultant in Dave Walden to push his campaign. He seems a near lock for a runoff. Much like last year, his success will be dependant upon getting his voters (namely, Latinos) to the polls and getting the right candidate to run against. Others who MAY run... Police Chief Bradford - this is an interesting suggestion especially now that he has been exhonnerated in his court case. Bradford posesses the necessary political and financial clout to run a formiddable campaign, but if he does run, it could pose significant problems for both himself and Turner. If they split the African American vote, neither are likely to make a runoff. Gordon Quan - the moderate city councilman has been testing the waters and, believe it or not with the arrival of Yao Ming, has really been pressed to run. He could raise the money but he is likely going to wait and get a feel for how fund raising would go before throwing his hat in the ring. Thoughts on the individuals... Sanchez is trying to ride his ethnicity into office even though the vast majority of Latinos in Houston are democrats. He was really a terrible city councilman. He was barely able to manage getting along with anyone on council. Oftentimes, he was the lone dissenting voice on numerous issues. He could be a potential legislative disaster in office. I don't know enough about White to comment at this point other than to say he seems compitent enough. I'm a bit dubious of Turner who might be Brown Part Deux and I'm not sure that is a good thing. Berry is a youngster with decent ideas but a head like a rock sometimes. He doesn't seem to understand how to work with the other members of council even now so I can't see him doing it as a mayor. Bradford is a good guy but the problems in the police department (the K-Mart raid chief among them) could make it really tough on him to run. Plus, I'm sure every African American leader and his brother are concerned that his presence in the race would make it much more difficult to get another African American elected into office. Quan is an intriguing possiblity. He is certainly more liberal than Sanchez and Berry but more conservative than Turner, Bradford and White. He's been effective on council and I honestly think he is the type of middle-of-the-road choice that could please both Dem's and the GOP. He holds no real party allegiance either. About the race... This really comes down to who runs. If Bradford stays out and blacks vote in their traditional block, Turner will very likely make the runoff. His strategy will be very similar to Brown's in terms of a campaign I'm sure. If Bradford does run, he will very likely split the black vote and catapult White (kind of ironic name) into legitimate contention. White is very much like the Chris Bell of last year. Not enough people know about him but his ideas seem fairly good and he's running a pretty slick campaign already. He's more centerist than liberal in his views from what I've read and he is taking a "roll up your sleeves and get things done" approach to campaigning which is very effective in Houston. Berry won't be able to raise enough money to get legitimate support which leaves Sanchez for the GOP. He will, no doubt, be the clear favorite to make the runoff against whichever dem gets in there. If he faces Turner, it will be a bloodbath like last year. If he faces White, he will be in big trouble. With Turner, it will just be a race to see who can get his voters to the polls. Minority votes will have an even greater impact on the election than they would if any other candidate was in the runoff against Sanchez. If White makes it into the runoff, he will very likely siphen off the moderate GOP votes from the MUCH more conservative Sanchez and easily win the black vote making it much tougher on Sanchez to get a victory. Truth is, Sanchez is not a favorite of more moderate Republicans in the area but he may be their only hope with a few other potentials bowing out. I personally think that if Quan had the right people around him and the right message, he could win. He really is the most centerist of the group and he has a good grasp of a wide variety of issues. Plus, the Asian communtiy would turn out in droves to get him the vicotry and, while they are a smaller group than blacks and Hispanics, they are exceedingly well organized. As crazy as it may sound, Yao Ming's arrival really does give Quan an opportunity he may not have had before (and may not again) and the idea of Houston, maybe the most diverse city in the country, being run by an Asian man would be really palatable to a lot of people in the business community, especially those wanting to expand ties with China. Interesting stuff to watch anyway.
My vote's White's to lose. I have some affection for Turner as I think he was done wrong on that last campaign, but I really like Bill White. I had occasion to work for him when he was state party chair, through the law firm I worked for at the time, and he struck me as darn decent -- I couple that with the latest ads touting his intention to deal with our street problems and he's got my vote for now. Sanchez. No self respecting Latino will vote for him and no truly self respecting Republican will vote for him. His only experience at any job has been starting his own companies and running them into the ground. And his only appeal is an Hispanic surname coupled with a Republican registration. Take him out of politics and he can't even get a job. As much as I'd like to vindicate his last try (and he did get screwed), Turner does feel like Brown revisited to me. And both I and my poor little car have had about enough of Brown's approach to street repair. So again, it's Bill White for me until I hear better elsewhere. I'm curious about one thing in your post though, Jeff. You say Berry's got some good ideas? Seriously? I mean, seriously? Enlighten me. He seems like a breakfast cereal clown to me. If he has any ideas, other than running for mayor after six months of a council term, I'd love to hear them. If you think Bradford's sullied by Kmart, Berry's twice sullied. He rode with Mark Aguirre to his previous "raid" on James Coney Island and never had a bad thing to say (before or after Kmart) about him arresting every person in the restaurant, whether they were just loitering or just plain eating a hot dog there. If Kmart's an issue, kiss Berry's ridiculous ass bye bye. I remain interested in any good ideas you might have heard from him though, just on account of the fact that I swear he's never had one.
p.s. Lest you (or anyone) think me a fool, I am fully aware there are many self loathing Republicans here in town as well as many blacks and Latinos who will vote surname over politics. I, along with many observers, predict a repeat of the last election, with a Sanchez-Turner runoff. The last election, of course, had the best candidate who'd been offered in a dog's age in George Greanias and he got beat out by two bozos. It'll likely happen again. (I'd take Greanias by a mile over White by the way, but he's not running this time.) And I'll vote Turner in the runoff, like I voted Brown last time. No worse thing could happen than handing over the city keys to a zero like Sanchez.
Sanchez is an absolute idiot. He stands for nothing and IS nothing. He has the big money Republican machine behind him, and would make a fine puppet for them if he won. Michael Berry doesn't have enough experience to be a good councilman let alone a good mayor. I run hot and cold with Turner, although he did get screwed by Wayne Dulcefino, and Dulcefino wasn't nearly punished enough for what he did. I don't know enough about Bill White, and will do research to find out more. Whoever wins will be the candidate who focuses the most on our city's biggest problem: Infrastructure, i.e. getting road construction finished and getting traffic moving. To me and many Houstonians, this will be the defining issue in this mayor's race. I've never seen it this bad in Houston, and the new mayor has to take the lead on it.
Agreed. My father was quite involved in Greanias' campaign. It was the only time he felt there was a candidate worthy enough of his involvement, and he would have made a fantastic mayor.
Batman, have to agree Sanchez is a loser unsuccessful small business guy with a good name and conservative money behind him. (Reminds me of Dubya's resume before he became Gov., but that is another post). Don't know anything about White. I saw a TV ad for him. He apparently has massive money to buy ads. I don't know anything about him. If he had much to do with the sorry state of the Demo party, then that isn't much of a qualification. I've known Gordon Quan for 18 years. Extremely competent. He is a Democrat but as Jeff says he is moderate. He would definitely project a professional image for the city. I could back him. The one time I met Sylvester Turner, he tried to impress me by stressing that he had been a lawyer for Vinson and Elkins. (To me that is a negative since they are always for the polluters, the discriminators, the corporations, the insurance companies and against the little guy). As one of the political commentators, I think accurately, said at the time both he and Bob Lanier ran dishonest campaigns. Bob ran as the good ol boy (quasi racist) campaign; Sylvester as Mr. friend of the black and poor. In reality Bob had been for many years a race liberal including back in the 50's and 60's when that was a gutsy thing in Houston. Sylvester never missed a chance to hobnob with the good ol boys. I voted for Sylvester, but woke up on election morn happy with Bob, who I think did a great job. Sylvester would have spent his entire time like Kathy Whitmire trying to prove to the developers and good ol boys that he was on their side. Bob didn't have to do this, so he could do what was right for the city, rebuild city parks etc. and could forget the crap about bragging all the time about how he cut taxes (for the wealthy ) leading no pay raises for 7 years for city workers like Kathy (I was at the City) sort of thing.
Of the candidates & potential candidates mentioned, the only 2 I could see myself actively supporting are Quan and White. I doubt I could ever vote for Turner or Sanchez. What's Grenias up to these days? I thought he did a fantastic job as City Controller and would make a great mayor.
Not sure who I will vote at this point. Although I vote Republican in national elections, I have many times sided with the democrats locally. Some of my hot topics over the past few years have been the construction of new sports facilities, which the democrats have pushed, and the light rail system, also pushed by the democrats. That being said, Lee Brown perhaps comes across as a bad representative to the city. When he speaks he just sounds so.......dumb.
agreed entirely...to take it further, control by any one party of a county or a region is a bad idea...it nearly always leads to abuse. there are good judges who happen to be democrats who can't get elected because they have a "D" by their name here. the same is true for Republicans in other areas of the country. some balance can be a good thing.
Thanks for the summary Jeff. What I think Houston really needs right now is less of a "big thinker" and more of an organizer. Houston has several projects (arena, light rail) set for completion in the next few years, and I think some sort of infrastructure equilibrium would be nice before taking on a new project. As we've all seen, Brown's administration did an absolutely terrible job setting up the construction of the light rail - alot of small businesses along Main street were forced to close and the traffic and parking downtown became a living nightmare. A good administrator would be able to allieve this problem by correctly scheduling each project so that they don't overlap. As for the candidates, I met Turner during a deposition at the law firm for which I used to work. He seemed like your typical big league attorney - arrogant and demanding. That doesn't really have anything to do with his ability to lead, but I thought I'd throw it out there anyways.
Batman: I said SOME good ideas about Berry. His concept for an e-city initiative was good. Mainly, he hasn't been the Rob Todd Jr. like everyone thought and that's better than nothing. I still don't think I'd ever vote for him. bigtexx & Max: I think you are right to be concerned about issues like rail and downtown when it comes to the GOP in Harris County. Houston is a decidedly liberal/moderate city. Get out into the county and it is the opposite. There has been a lot of talk that Metro will put a light rail initiative on this year's ballot for expanding the rail system. Personally, I think it is premature and would have a better shot in 2004 once this system is up and running but, thanks to our good buddy Tom Delay, they may have to run this year. Since Delay blocked federal funding of any rail initiative, Metro has to re-apply and they know they won't get any help without Delay's grudging support. They cannot get that without a public vote. Here's the big problem. If they vote this year, they can avoid a county-wide referendum and reach a federal deadline that would allow them to start building in 2004 or 2005. However, they will have a better chance of winning in 2004 in terms of the issues (bigger turnout, rail will be finished and the streets will be fixed), BUT it would have to be countywide. The county voters tend to vote no on rail almost unanimously. Plus, it would mean no federal funding before 2007 or 2008 when the budget is much harder to predict. Now, I still don't have all the facts on a rail vote yet. It is still sketchy but I do know that there are deadlines and Metro is pushing for a vote this fall. Anyway, Sanchez is anti-rail. He always has been. He has also attempted to defeat nearly every initiative for downtown revitilization as it came up. The guy is just anti-progress and, what is most disconcerting, he is really a terrible legislator. He never had an easy time navigating city council and often ended up in-fighting with other councilmembers. I remember reading that Sanchez had more 12-1 votes where he was the 1 than anyone else on council. I'm not opposed to a Republican in office if he actually supports progress in the city, but Sanchez is definitely not that guy. He would be a disaster as mayor.
Hehehe.. my political science prof last semester was his campaign chairwoman. "Joe Roach: Big Enough For Houston"
Me too! Funny thing is, this is apparently the NUMBER ONE issue in every major city in America. The size of infrastructure and the fact that we have more citizens with automobiles than any other large city except LA (and they have 6 million more people) makes it almost impossible to get everything done. Once one job gets done, another starts. According to a story I read, potholes, poor road conditions and lack of infrastructure (see Austin) are the hot button issues in nearly every single big city in America. The truth is that most big cities just didn't plan well to mee the needs of their expanded populace and Houston is one of the worst in that regard. As for downtown, it was horribly mis-managed but not all of it was the fault of the city. Reliant decided that it was also a good time to dig up all the streets to replace the electrical infrastructure. Ugh. Whatever the case, it has been horrific. I hate going down there as it is. The ONLY good thing about downtown is that, by 2005, it will all be done - EVERYTHING. They will have re-done the sewers, the water lines, the electrical lines, all the streets, the on-street parking and the light rail. They will have even finished the Main Street Project planting trees and fixing up the street between UH downtown and Reliant Park. Someone recently said about it, "No pain. No gain." Man, has it ever been painful. Fortunately, the bulk will be finished in time for the Super Bowl next January (including the rail - 3 weeks before the Super Bowl ) and the rest by the following year. But, right now, it is a freakin' nightmare. Damn, I have to drive down there right now. Aye!
I'm writing in JeffB for mayor. Who do you trust more than the guy who spearheaded keeping the Rockets in town? Vote JeffB for mayor!
