No matter who wins the presidential race, Democrats are poised to expand their lead in the House and Senate. Republicans are fleeing their seats like rats from a sinking ship. McClatchy Washington Bureau Print This Article Posted on Sun, Feb. 10, 2008 House Republicans approach record departures Rob Hotakainen | McClatchy Newspapers last updated: February 08, 2008 04:09:57 PM WASHINGTON — In the last week of January, five members of Congress joined the hottest demographic group on Capitol Hill: Republicans who are heading for the exits. Reps. Tom Davis of Virginia, Kenny Hulshof of Missouri, Ron Lewis of Kentucky, Dave Weldon of Florida and James Walsh of New York are among 25 Republican members of the House of Representatives who've announced their resignations or retirements. The party is closing in quickly on its record of 27 House retirements, set in 1952. Hulshof is running for governor; the others are retiring. "It's become an epidemic," said David Johnson, a Republican consultant and strategist based in Atlanta. While some members, such as Hulshof, are leaving to pursue new political opportunities, most observers say that the mass departures are the result of the loss of Republican control in the 2006 elections, lackluster fundraising and low morale. So far, only five House Democrats have announced that they're leaving, either to retire or to run for Senate seats. Prospects look equally bright for Democrats in the Senate, where five Republican veterans — John Warner of Virginia, Pete Domenici of New Mexico, Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, Larry Craig of Idaho and Wayne Allard of Colorado — are ready to hang it up. It adds up to a tough year for Republicans, who at a minimum will face a big loss of seniority and experience when the 111th Congress convenes next January. Analysts predict that the party will be hard-pressed to keep Democrats from expanding their 232-199 House majority. "It means that whatever little chance there was — and it always was a little chance — that they could take back the House is pretty much gone. . . . Open seats are always easier to win," said Robert Smith, a professor of political science at San Francisco State University. He said that many retiring Republicans had discovered that after running the House for more than a decade, "it's not as satisfying to go to the other side." Much of the Democratic excitement is focused on the party's ability to attract big-time cash. Outgunning Republicans in the money chase for the first time in at least two decades, Democrats raised a record $67.5 million for House races last year and finished the year with more than $35 million in cash. "The American people are energized and inspired by Democrats' agenda of change and the strong candidates we've recruited across the country," said Democratic Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. At least 10 of the retiring House members belong to the centrist Republican Main Street Partnership, veterans such as Virginia's Davis, New York's Walsh and Minnesota's Jim Ramstad. Some observers predict that the Republican candidates who are nominated to replace them are likely to be more conservative. Johnson, who worked on Republican former Kansas Sen. Bob Dole's 1996 presidential campaign and has overseen numerous congressional races, said that four more House Republicans could step aside this year. That would break the party's record. "I would say there's a good possibility, depending on how the polls continue to look," Johnson said. "The Republican brand right now is damaged. Voters are not blaming the Democratic Congress, even though the polls show that Congress is held in such low esteem. Voters are blaming Republicans more than they're blaming the Democrats who are in power. . . . All of a sudden we're playing defense." Only 33 percent of Americans gave Congress a positive job rating in an ABC-Washington Post poll conducted last week. However, an earlier poll by the same organizations found that 54 percent of respondents still want Democrats to control Congress next year, compared with 40 percent who want Republicans back in charge. The findings were nearly identical to those of a USA Today-Gallup poll in December. ...... http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/v-print/story/27125.html
There are a number of reasons why Congresspersons may retire. Other political opportunities...other business opportunities...etc etc. Things are tough for Republicans, sure. However, it isn't like 40% of respondents to the poll is a horrible number given the poor economy, war, and disappointment in Congress overall. People like Larry Craig know that they are politically damaged, and he may be able to easily engage in his bathroom habits when out of the public eye. Some may have decided that it is time for them to go do something else (unlike Ted Kennedy, who you can't drag away from Capital Hill unless it is for happy hour). In short.....YAWN.
None of that explains why a near record number of Republicans are retiring this cycle. Business and other opportunities are present for all members of Congress every cycle. Something is significantly different about this cycle.
I agree with Ref that talk of the "republican brand" is a little dull and partisan, but what's not dull is that we could winess an even larger change of seats than in '06. That matters quite a bit, no matter who wins the white house.
It would be dull and partisan if it was a democrat making the observation. However, a republican strategist made that point, which made it interesting and non-partisan, so I noted it.
If only the Republicans had stuck to their promises when they had both houses and the presidency, they would have been able to hold on, since the democrats had nothing but slogans of "change" and anti-Bush sentiment. The 2006 Congressional elections were a lot like the 92 presidential one. There's no way that Bush I should have lost to the smarmy governor of Arkansas, except he forgot everything that got him elected in the first place, and was promptly deserted by the people who put him there. Same thing with the incompetent Hastert-Delay republicans in Congress. .
Believe me on this one (which given my recent track record on predictions, isn't easy): If Clinton is the Democratic nominee, no matter who wins the White House, Republicans will have great day in House elections in November. The easiest campaign a Congressional candidate can run is against Hillary Clinton.
No worries! Was trying to more make a point about the practical aspect and the future of Congress... just saying that you can't ignore the bottom line, even if you feel like some of the rhetoric hits the same ole notes.
