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Horn tooting: My NBA labor situation chart on Truehoops

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by Carl Herrera, Aug 25, 2011.

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  1. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    #1 Carl Herrera, Aug 25, 2011
  2. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    CH,

    That is awesome, good job....and very interesting.

    DD
     
    #2 DaDakota, Aug 25, 2011
  3. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Member

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    Chart fail... where's the sarcasm??

    j/k... great stuff!
     
    #3 JayZ750, Aug 25, 2011
  4. smoothie

    smoothie Jabari Jungle

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    i remember when you posted it here first. excellent job then. this is just cool that they used it! congrats!
     
    #4 smoothie, Aug 25, 2011
  5. No Chance

    No Chance Member

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    You did good! Congratulations.
     
    #5 No Chance, Aug 25, 2011
  6. phantoman

    phantoman Member

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    nice!
     
    #6 phantoman, Aug 25, 2011
  7. CDrex

    CDrex Member

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    Congrats, Mr. ESPN Guest Analyst! Hehe. Loved it when you posted it here, and cool that Abbott liked it too.
     
    #7 CDrex, Aug 25, 2011
  8. redhotrox

    redhotrox Member

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    Way to go! Provides a good understanding of the situation and is very pretty. :)
     
    #8 redhotrox, Aug 25, 2011
  9. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    Thanks, guys.

    To be clear, the chart is mine but the writing is Henry's. Also, the ESPN graphic department are the ones who "made it pretty" (there is a pretty long time lapse between when I posted it here and now because it takes a while to get the clearance from ESPN to post anything graphical on the blog). I think Henry did a great job explaining things, though though for people who hate math, their heads might still explode.

    EDIT:

    More horn tooting: the NBPA's tweeter account retweeted Henry's twitter link to the blog entry. Cool!
     
    #9 Carl Herrera, Aug 25, 2011
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2011
  10. johnstarks

    johnstarks Member

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    I'm confused, I thought your name is Carl.

    In any case, it's a good move by Stern to change the slope of the curve since owners operate on a much longer time horizon than players who need to get paid while they still can play ball. For the NBPA, compromising on the slope of the curve is equivalent to selling out future players. Stern is counting on at least three ways to use divide and conquer tactics: 1) veterans vs. players on rookie contracts, 2) stars vs. non-stars, and 3) current players vs. future players.

    Since future players aren't representatives of the NBPA, I'm pretty sure there's gonna be a slope change + intercept change. Plus, given the overrepresentation of vets in the NBPA, I wouldn't be surprised to see the rookie contracts get shafted on this one. This is why you see labor negotiations typically grandfather in nice benefits for current workers, while cutting them for future workers. That's also why we have ridiculous guaranteed contracts for unproductive vets that bloat NBA payrolls in the existing CBA. I think the non-stars are gonna be fine relative to stars, since they've got plenty of player reps.
     
    #10 johnstarks, Aug 25, 2011
  11. BowlingBaller

    BowlingBaller Member

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    Cool chart, bro!
     
    #11 BowlingBaller, Aug 25, 2011
  12. BowlingBaller

    BowlingBaller Member

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    Didn't mean any sarcasm, btw. Really is cool. :)
     
    #12 BowlingBaller, Aug 25, 2011
  13. Damion Laverne

    Damion Laverne Member

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    Where's JCDenton?
     
    #13 Damion Laverne, Aug 25, 2011
  14. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    Can't be CH's chart since there is no homosexual innuendo or penis references.
     
    #14 robbie380, Aug 26, 2011
  15. johnstarks

    johnstarks Member

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    You didn't notice the erect lines crossing in the chart?
     
    #15 johnstarks, Aug 26, 2011
  16. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Member

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    Further horn tooting:

    (1) Guess who has the blog post and my chart listed as a "favorite" on twitter?

    http://twitter.com/#!/ShaneBattier/favorites

    (2) Henry informed me that he hasn't heard any complaints from either the NBA or the NBPA about the chart and his blog entry yet, which suggests that both sides agree with the representation. Typically, whenever he makes any representation about the business situation that either side finds objectionable or inaccurate, he hears from them very quickly.


    (3) Henry also mentioned that these "regional player association meetings" that had been going on for the last couple weeks were, to a significant degree, done in reaction to Stern's representation about the "8% giveback": The NBPA is not happy about it because some players are wondering why they are losing a season over a smallish 8% difference and think that Stern was being deliberately manipulative. They had to explain to the players the difference gets MUCH larger over the course of the deal (a point which the chart does a good job illustrating, I think).

    I believe this illustrates the importance of being at least somewhat decent at math.
     
    #16 Carl Herrera, Aug 26, 2011
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2011
  17. BigBenito

    BigBenito Member

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    <iframe width="420" height="345" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/gikx3o7KcYU" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

    Toot away... but did they really stick with the same line colors?
     
    #17 BigBenito, Aug 26, 2011
  18. johnstarks

    johnstarks Member

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    Procrastinating on a deadline for work so I decided to build a little on CH's good work. The real numbers the negotiators from both sides should be using are inflation adjusted numbers. The raw numbers are misleading since a dollar in 10 years is probably only going to be worth 70 cents in today's terms. Assuming an average inflation of 3.5% a year, CH's charts should look something like the chart I put together below. The numbers in the parentheses in the legend are the yearly inflation-adjusted averages. Notice that in inflation-adjusted terms, the owners' 8% "kickback" actually ends up being even worse than their original proposal looked in CH's chart. The NBPA should be offended that the owners thought the NBPA would think the new deal is better.

    The one thing that does make the current proposal better, of course, is that players value being able to have money today more than tomorrow, even accounting for inflation. Especially since players who know they only have a small window of opportunity to make bank before they can't compete with younger players, the current proposal that would trade off a lower takehome in the future for not as big a cut in the near-term will probably be attractive. The owners know this, so they're going to push this kind of "slope-change" deal to pick off players like Shane Battier and more importantly Derek Fisher who have 2-3 years left in the tank.

    [​IMG]
     
    #18 johnstarks, Aug 26, 2011
  19. Commodore

    Commodore Member

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    <iframe width="480" height="390" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/LjuSKlqFfg4" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
     
    #19 Commodore, Aug 27, 2011
    1 person likes this.
  20. redhotrox

    redhotrox Member

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    #20 redhotrox, Aug 31, 2011
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