1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

[HoopNumbers] Adjusted +/- update for Rockets

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by durvasa, Mar 1, 2010.

  1. durvasa

    durvasa Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2006
    Messages:
    38,895
    Likes Received:
    16,451
    Hoop Numbers has updated their site with new "regularized" adjusted +/- (APM) numbers. What's interesting about their stats is that they show both adjusted +/- ratings for both the offensive end and defensive end, and they have ratings using 1 year's worth of data as well as ratings using 4 years' worth of data.

    You can find the updated stats here:
    http://hoopnumbers.com/allAnalysisView?analysis=RAPM

    Offensive Adjusted +/- is defined as the number of points a player is expected to add to his team's score (per 100 possessions), relative to a "league average player," by being on the floor.

    Defensive Adjusted +/- is defined as the number of points a player is expected to add to the opponent's score (per 100 possessions), relative to a "league average player," by being on the floor.

    So, the higher the Offensive APM the better, and the lower the Defensive APM the better.

    I'll give the usual disclaimer: these are interesting to look at, but are not by any means the end-all, be-all player rating. For most players, the ratings makes some sense and serve as validation of our subjective opinions and without relying on the boxscore stats. For some players, especially when only looking at data over 1 year, there are some strange results; but as this is a probabilistic model that is to be expected.

    <table border='0'><tr><td>[​IMG]</td></tr><tr>
    <td>
    [​IMG]</td>
    <td>
    [​IMG]</td>
    </tr>
    </table>

    The ratings for just this season are not so reliable, so I wouldn't make so much out of Andersen's good defensive rating, or Martin's poor offensive rating. I'd consider these anomalies. By HoopNumber's +/- analysis, Chuck Hayes rates as one of the top defensive player over the last 4 years in the league, and even for this season, in a starting role, he has the best defensive rating on the team.

    Interestingly, this analysis finds Battier to be a below average defender this season, and only slightly above average over the last 4 years. In fact, it gives more credit to Battier's offense than defense, which is hard for me to rationalize so I won't bother. :)
     
    1 person likes this.
  2. thelasik

    thelasik Contributing Member

    Joined:
    May 9, 2005
    Messages:
    3,347
    Likes Received:
    72
    Great stuff as always. You are one of my favorite posters.
     
  3. ross84

    ross84 Member

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2008
    Messages:
    1,073
    Likes Received:
    41
    Is this per 100 individual possession and not team possessions?
     
  4. durvasa

    durvasa Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2006
    Messages:
    38,895
    Likes Received:
    16,451
    The idea is to model each player's impact on team's offense/defense per 100 team possessions when player is on the floor.
     
  5. FFz

    FFz Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2006
    Messages:
    2,411
    Likes Received:
    69
    Does that thing say david andersen is an okay defender?
     
  6. ross84

    ross84 Member

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2008
    Messages:
    1,073
    Likes Received:
    41
    I gotcha. I got a little confused by the way you defined it initially.

    Offensive Adjusted +/- is defined as the number of points a player is expected to add to his team's score (per 100 possessions)

    Because if its team possessions then Aaron brooks will have the highest rating (highest scorer would be highest rating). But it would make more sense if it is individual possessions. Also by there being negative values, it makes me curious on how they have defined possession.
     
  7. durvasa

    durvasa Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2006
    Messages:
    38,895
    Likes Received:
    16,451
    It is a +/- stat. It's not looking at how many points each player scores individually, but rather what the team does with the player on the floor.
     
  8. Yao4REAL

    Yao4REAL Member

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2007
    Messages:
    3,856
    Likes Received:
    133
    This proof Kevin Martin is not just a bad defender but a horrible one!!
     
  9. H-TownBBall

    H-TownBBall Member

    Joined:
    May 24, 2006
    Messages:
    718
    Likes Received:
    27
    Not to be a bother, but it would be useful to see this in one dimension as offensive +/- minus defensive +/-. Could you please generate this for us durvasa?
     
  10. SuperBeeKay

    SuperBeeKay Member

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2008
    Messages:
    6,185
    Likes Received:
    258
    Chuck hayes beastin it!
     
  11. kaleidosky

    kaleidosky Member

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2002
    Messages:
    15,086
    Likes Received:
    1,352
    just look along the x axis only and then along the y-axis only (ignoring the other axis). Not tough to do at all without a new graph
     

Share This Page