Link: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/train...mnist=hollinger_john&page=RocketsForecast0809 "All told, they have as good a chance of winning the conference as anyone, but given Artest's volatile history and the injury proneness of Yao and McGrady, there's too much risk to comfortably predict the Rockets to land ahead of the Lakers and Jazz." Prediction: 56-26, 1st in Southwest Division, 3rd in Western Conference Decent assessment.
I would think we would be better than +1 game from last year. We added Barry and Artest, and essentially Yao. I assume he is basing his prediction on Yao or Mcgrady getting hurt but even if one of them go down we have Artest to pick up the scoring slack. Another year under Scola and Landry showing improvement with his mid range game should be considered as well. I'm going to say we have a 60+ win season.
I think he incorporates his projected PER into his win prediction model. And if you check, he has many of the role player's PER decreasing. I'm not sure how exactly he translates individual player PER into team wins, though.
I won't post the whole write-up, but it is an excellent read. He is spot on about our PG weakness and that injuries/lack of durability could kill us. Plus the Ron Ron factor. But I think Hollinger is dead wrong about Landry not performing like last year. I expect Landry to be better. Specifically on PG, I agree with him Rafer will probably be worse than last year. I sure hope AB and Brent Barry exceed my expectations. We are certifiably weak at the position. Regarding our record vs. last season consider: 1 The Rockets should get off to a better start than 15-17. 2 Scola and Landry will both be productive from the beginning of the season. This is HUGE! 3 Ron Ron. If he stays positive, he is a huge boost. At worst, I think he will have a neutral effect on our final record. 4 On the other hand, it is very unlikely the Rockets will have another 22 game win streak. Verdict: 60 wins will happen unless injuries become a big problem.
It seems that you really liked what you saw in his first preseason game. I would add the likely regression of McGrady as a key factor as well.
I understand why he has Utah ranked so highly they were one of the best teams at the end of last year and his rankings are kinda based on that. But they failed in the playoffs last year with the exact same team, and every other team outside of SA has gotten considerably better. How can he possibly expect the Jazz to come out of the WC? At least he has always respected the Rockets.
I certainly did. Agreed on Tracy. I can always hope he plays smarter this year and doesn't take as many dumb shots, which would negate some of his declining ability.
That's what struck me from this article along with his scouting report posted somewhere else on the forum. It seems to me that Hollinger views Landry as an overacheiving hustle-points garbage player, rather than a young talent coming into his own, thus the doubt he will sustain his production. Like you, I hold the latter opionion, that if healthy, he's a developing young talent whom one would expect to only increase his production. Obviously, there's no chance he will sustain his same efficiency ratings with a larger sample size, but I think his overall productivity will continue to improve. I'm really looking forward to watching this guy play and develop this year. Hollinger curiously continues to insist in his articles, even going out of his way to make the inclusion, that Artest will start at the '4.' I don't know where he's getting this from and I find it pretty surprising from someone as well-connected and in touch with reality as Hollinger. Finally, McGrady is done from a physical standpoint. I'm holding my breath for the next inconsequential baseline dunk after a dead-ball for the throng of posts in a game thread that "his athleticism is as great as ever!!1". He's done as a physical specimen. We can only hope that defenses continue to respect him with the double team so that he can use his elite passing abilities and that the rest of the supporting cast performs up to expectations.
He's done? That's a bit much don't ya think? I agree he's definatly not what he was back in Orlando, but he is still an elite level player that, if healthy, is an All-Star.
I think a big part of that is he did not project Landry to be successful NBA player based on his college stats, physical measurements, and age. So he is skeptical, which is perfectly understandable considering we've only really seen Landry play at a high level for about 2 1/2 months. Though it's interesting that he almost wants to compensate for that by giving him extra credit for his defense (which, in my view, has been a weakness for him). If Landry puts up another high PER season, I'm sure Hollinger will fly to his corner.
The only thing keeping him elite is his passing ability - the premise of my argument. From a physical standpoint, he's finished. We're talking about essentially a 6'8 guy who doesn't rebound, doesn't defend, doesn't penetrate, is an atrocious shooter, and an even worse free throw shooter. He's one of the 5 best passers in basketball, and one of the best playmaking/ballhandling wings in NBA history. That's what has kept him relevant in NBA discussion, and where his value to the team lies. That's my point.
Trust me, the defenses will continue to double Tracy. If they didn't double him before, his numbers and especially his efficiency would've been significantly better.
That's a little extreme, don't you think? I don't think he's that far gone. He sure looks that way some games, though.
