http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds Yeah, it's early but it's time to look at these again from time to time. We are second in the west with the second highest probably to make the playoffs at 97.3% and 14.4% at the Finals and 3.3% to win it all. That's pretty good considering how much we've been injured, and this formula is based on a lot of things.
Hollinger's rankings/odds have historically been remarkably accurate at predicting who is actually really good and who is just blowing hot air. I think it's remarkable that the Rockets are the second highest ranked team in the Western Conference after the Lakers in spite of all their injuries and disruptions so far this year combined with the rough road schedule. Like I've said, most of the pissiness of this board will be quickly forgotten come February/March when this team really starts to get on a roll. 20-11 is a pretty darn good record to start with, and yet this team is clearly better than its record indicates. That list easily makes sense. Of the usual nine suspects, intuition says that the Suns are the weakest link and the most likely to miss the playoffs when all is said and done. Also, Portland is better than many people give them credit for.
Here are his playoff odds from almost exactly one year ago (Dec. 30th, 2007) http://web.archive.org/web/20071230012312/http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds Looks like he was dead on at that point. He predicted Celtics/Lakers in the Finals with the Celtics coming out on top.
Yeah, I mean only Cleveland, Orlando, Boston and LA have a better chance at the chip. But again, once we get healthy or IF we get healthy, we can have a shot at it too. Right now it's too low of a percentage.
The Pacers didn't make the playoffs despite the 91.1% chance of making it. How sad is it that less than half the way through the season, they could declare 2 division winners 100%?
I don't understand the frustrations on this board over the past week. If anything, the losses to Cleveland and New Orleans actually raised my opinion of this team. They hung with 2 of the top 5 teams in the league on the road without key players in each game (no 111 in CLE, no Artest against NO). This team is really good. I don't know if they will ever put it all together because of the health concerns, but this team can be really damn good. There's been some cause for concern (obviously Mac and Rafer), but I don't know how you couldn't be overall happy with where we are right now.
Personally, I had hoped for a better record out of the gate, but considering all the injuries I'm happy with where they are. I'm now to the point where I don't even worry about wins and losses from game to game, as long as we don't go on a losing streak (and we haven't lost more than 2 in a row all season). The other night when I was watching them play the Hornets I almost felt numb as the finals minutes of game play unfolded in front of me. Normally, through my 13 years of watching the Rockets, I would have been on pins and needles. I'm just not concerned with it anymore. It's all about the playoffs.
only 3.3% to win it all? Um if we make the playoffs wouldn't that give us like what... a 20% chance of winning it all on that action alone? If we get out of the first round that % jumps up to like what 40%? I don't buy that we only have a 3.3% chance of winning it all, sounds a little absurd if you ask me.
I think that's a function of the fact that there are at least three teams in the east (Boston, Cleveland, Orlando) that are clearly playing better than the Rockets so far, and, by the power rankings, would be favored in a finals series which has a 14.4% chance of happening. I think it's actually more impressive that the Rockets have almost a 15% chance of making it to the finals. Given the mood around here lately you'd think they hardly have a chance of making the playoffs.
