Hollinger uses new system to evaluate collegiate talent

i will post the link, though you need insider to read it. i don't dare post the entire article hear because it's WAAAAAAAAAY too long. I'd run the risk of owning the longest post in bbs history if i posted that novel here. so for those with insider here is the link where he explains his formula and proves that while it's not perfect, it's better at avoiding busts than most gm's have done in the past.
link

for those, like me, who get through life on cliffnotes...

how you up your rating:

1. age -

2. steals -

3. blocks -

4. rebounds -

5. 3-pointers -

6. pure point rating -

how you lower your rating:

1. Short guys -

2. 7 footers -

3. perimeter players who can't make 3's - Making fewer than 25 3-pointers in the year before being drafted is a pretty strong negative indicator for outside players. Some are good enough in other areas to overcome it -- most notably Wade. Many others fail because of it, however, as the athleticism they relied on to dominate in college isn't nearly as singular at the pro level.


4. really bad rebounders -

finally, while Hollinger admits that numbers can only take you so far and you do need real life scouting, this formula produced less busts than real drafts. if you back test it against past drafts, it doesn't miss out on late first round / early second round "surprises", but it still ranks a few busts pretty high. this basically means if you are ranked low by this formula you will be a bust, but if you are ranked high, you have a strong (but not 100%) chance of producing at a high level in the nba.

so here's the list for this years draft (remember, only college players can be tested with this formula):

2007 Draft: Top 30 rated collegians, plus other notables
NO. PLAYER SCHOOL SCORE
1. Kevin Durant Texas 870.7
2. Greg Oden Ohio State 667.9
3. Mike Conley Jr. Ohio State 637.9
4. Thaddeus Young Georgia Tech 604.2
5. Brandan Wright North Carolina 601.4
6. Al Horford Florida 601.0
7. Nick Fazekas Nevada 594.3
8. Josh McRoberts Duke 566.7
9. Rodney Stuckey E. Washington 557.7
10. Jared Dudley Boston College 542.6
11. Joakim Noah Florida 528.6
12. Glen Davis LSU 521.0
13. Sean Williams Boston College 511.3
14. Jeff Green Georgetown 505.5
15. Kyle Visser Wake Forest 503.5
16. Herbert Hill Providence 503.0
17. Javaris Crittenton Georgia Tech 492.2
18. Wilson Chandler DePaul 483.1
19. Julian Wright Kansas 481.4
20. Daequan Cook Ohio State 470.0
21. D.J. Strawberry Maryland 465.5
22. Jason Smith Colorado State 464.9
23. Alando Tucker Wisconsin 464.3
24. Corey Brewer Florida 462.4
25. Al Thornton Florida State 447.8
26. Marcus Williams Arizona 445.8
27. Acie Law Texas A&M 445.2
28. Aaron Gray Pittsburgh 440.5
29. Zabian Dowdell Virginia Tech 438.2
30. Spencer Hawes Washington 433.9

Other notables

Morris Almond Rice 425.6 22
Derrick Byars Vanderbilt 421.9 28
Gabe Pruitt USC 421.0 21
Nick Young USC 383.8 13
Taurean Green Florida 350.4 39
Arron Afflalo UCLA 336.1 32
Ramon Sessions Nevada 334.7 37
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does morey know what he's doing? he loves Fazekas and Davis and now we can see why. they rank as lotto picks. although morey was talking about almond as a guy on thier list... he's a numbers guy... that's gotta be a smoke screen if you believe in hollinger.

also, if morey is looking to move up, it should be for a guy ranked higher than fazekas. if that's the case, i say our best chance is at T.Young slipping into the late teens. if that's not the case then we could probably trade down to get a guy like big baby in the early second round, or dudley in the mid second round.