Hollinger Destroys Kerr: "Keeping It Real"

Devastating article from John Hollinger today exposing "theory versus reality" - why the Shaq trade was a dumb, dumb move. By the time he's done, you realize that the Suns basically traded the heart and soul of their team for a 20 million dollar defensive rebounder.

It's a little too long to post here, but here are some highlights:

- Marion had a mind-boggling +/- of over 10 points in the past 3 1/2 years with the Suns.
- They traded one of the league's lowest turnover guys for one of the league's highest turnover guys.
- "Theory: Suns can still run with Shaq. Reality: Suns opponents can now run on Shaq." Transition defense is shot.
- Perimeter defense is absolute crap now, and opposing small forwards and quick point guards (even from bad teams) are routinely destroying the Suns.
- The last point: "Theory: We have to wait till the playoffs to measure this trade. Reality: The Suns might not even make the playoffs."

Read it all. http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insi...ory?columnist=hollinger_john&page=Suns-080307

 

It's hard to blame Marion, being the "glue guy" all these years, doing all the dirty work while Nash and Amare took the spotlight and glory, and being rewarded for it with nothing but constant trade rumors and rejections of a contract extension. Apparently Kerr told him earlier that he didn't deserve to get paid that well. The Phoenix Suns tried to blame Marion for "hurting" their off-court chemistry -- the truth is that his unhappiness was their fault, largely a product of Robert Sarver's cheapness. They failed to realize how valuable he was to their team. They drove him out of town, and now they're facing the consequences.

Over +10 points in the last 3 1/2 years, on a team with both Nash and Amare. That is amazing.

 

Well, given the stats he was putting up year in year out, he definitely deserved to earn $17M per. But it wasn't just the money, though. It's one thing to be a cheap owner and refuse to extend a guy who has been the heart and soul of your franchise for the past few years, it's another thing to try to trade him at every chance you get and not even make an effort to hide what you're doing. Every time there was a trade rumor involving Phoenix, Marion's name was involved, and whenever he tried to ask, he got no reassurances. And then they told him he doesn't deserve the money he's making. That is how you make a player feel unappreciated.

 

It's in free preview right now, but what the heck ...

<blockquote>"If it works, I'm a genius. If it doesn't, I'm a moron, I guess." -- Steve Kerr

Anyone who has dealt with Steve Kerr during his more than two decades as a player, writer, broadcaster and now general manager can attest that the man is no moron. In fact, he's one of the sharpest players of his generation.

However, that hasn't stopped his biggest move as Phoenix Suns general manager from looking foolish so far. Early returns on Kerr's trade of Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O'Neal haven't been favorable, with the Suns going 3-5 with Shaq in the lineup and tumbling from first to sixth in the Western Conference by going 6-7 since the day of the trade.

To be fair, some of this can be explained by the schedule. Phoenix accumulated its 34-14 mark prior to the trade against an unusually soft slate, one that is far more difficult down the stretch. The Suns' average opponent in the first 48 games had a winning percentage of just .474; in the final 34 games, that increases to .550.

Nonetheless, the increased difficulty only accounts for a small portion of the drop in the Suns' own results. Phoenix outscored opponents by just over six points a game in the 48 games prior to the trade; since making it, they've been outscored by 2.4 per contest. That whopping differential goes far beyond anything the schedule-makers could dole out; it would be as if the Spurs suddenly morphed into the Hawks.

I made no secret of my opposition to the trade at the time it was made, so I won't recount that reasoning here. But now that we have some hard data from the first eight games of the Shaq era, we can pinpoint where Phoenix has fallen short -- and, if the Suns are to recover, where they need to improve.

In doing so, one thing stands out: Most of the reasons given for making the trade with the Heat are instead looking like reasons the Suns should have passed on it.

An easy way to juxtapose this is by examining the collision between theory and reality. "Theory" below is the case that's been made by the Suns and others in favor of the trade. "Reality" is the actual result thus far.

To wit:

Theory: The Suns have better off-court chemistry without Marion
Reality: The Suns had better on-court chemistry with Marion

The Suns thought they could play better without Marion doing his Debbie Downer act in the locker room, but his effect on the court was decidedly more positive. Take a look at Phoenix's performance with Marion on and off the court the past few seasons and the numbers will hammer you over the head: He was essential to making this system work.

On a per-game basis, Phoenix was about 10 points better with Marion on the floor over the past three and a half seasons. Ten points is a huge, huge gap -- it's the difference between the Hornets and Bobcats, essentially -- so for one player to have that impact so consistently over a period of years speaks volumes about his importance to their system. In fact, his differential was greater than that of Amare Stoudemire in each of the past four seasons.

Suns' point differential per 48 minutes
Marion on court Marion off court Difference
2007-08 +9.6 -1.5 +11.1
2006-07 +9.7 +0.5 +10.2
2005-06 +6.5 +1.9 +4.6
2004-05 +10.5 -3.1 +14.6
Source: 82games.com

That trend has continued in Marion's absence, with opponents outscoring the Suns by 2.4 points per game since the trade. Many scribes have already detailed the ways in which Marion was integral to Phoenix's system, so I won't belabor the point here. Suffice it to say the Suns haven't received an equally offsetting contribution from Shaq.

As for the locker room stuff, I don't want to minimize whatever issues there were between Marion and the other Suns -- certainly you have to wonder about a guy who is traded from first place to last and seems happy about it. But in this exchange, Phoenix appeared to lose so much in on-court chemistry that almost no amount of esprit de corps could make up for it.

Theory: The Suns are struggling only because of all the turnovers
Reality: The Suns are making turnovers because they traded for them

A lot of the chatter from Phoenix is that they're struggling right now because they're making too many turnovers, and that this brief nuisance will go away once they've worked out the kinks.

Somebody needs to remind them that they traded one of the league's most extreme low-turnover players for one of its most extreme high-turnover players. Of course they're going to turn the ball over more; it would be shocking if they didn't.

As a Sun, Marion turned the ball over on just 6.3 percent of his possessions, the third-best rate among the league's 62 power forwards and the ninth-best overall (his rate has since gone up, after making 26 miscues in 11 games in his new role in Miami).

In contrast, O'Neal has turned the ball over on 18.3 percent of his possessions this season, a rate more than double that of Marion. Only 10 players in basketball have a worse rate, and Shaq is the only one in that group whose teammates actually throw him the ball.

By comparison, the next closest player with a usage rate over 20 is New York's Eddy Curry, who turns it over on 15.1 percent of his possessions. So Shaq is in a league of his own for high-usage offensive players who turn the ball over. As a Sun he's handing it over to opponents three times a game, or three times as often as Marion did. There's no reason to expect the trend to abate.

Theory: Shaq's presence improves the Suns' rebounding
Reality: Shaq's presence improves the Suns' rebounding

OK, we can throw Phoenix a bone on this one. The Suns had the league's worst rebound rate at the time of the trade; with Shaq's help, they're already out of the cellar.

With Marion, the Suns grabbed 20.6 percent of their offensive misses and 69.2 percent of the defensive caroms. That has improved dramatically in the eight games with Shaq, especially at the defensive end -- the Suns have grabbed 78.5 percent of opponents' misses, and over the course of the eight games actually have a rebounding advantage on their opponents.

Unfortunately, this one positive hasn't nearly offset all the negatives. Such as …

Theory: Phoenix can still run with Shaq
Reality: Phoenix's opponents can run on Shaq

Last season, the Suns scored 17.0 fast-break points per game, the third-most in the league. That won't surprise people, but another stat might: Phoenix was also very good at cutting off the other team's break. The Suns permitted only 10.5 fast-break points per game, which ranked fourth in the NBA.

Keep that in mind as you look at these numbers with Shaq. Phoenix's transition game doesn't seem to have slowed down much -- they're at 17.8 fast-break points per game in the eight games since Shaq arrived.

But their opponents' running game is the real story. Phoenix's opposition is scoring a whopping 19.9 fast-break points per game, or roughly double what the Suns gave up last season with Marion. Even the plodding Pistons, who play at the league's slowest pace, rolled Phoenix for 20 fast-break points in the Suns' own gym.

Obviously, Shaq is a huge part of this -- a staple of nearly every Phoenix game has been the sight of O'Neal barely getting over half court while somebody dunks on the Suns' basket. Which takes us to the next problem:

Theory: Having Shaq in the middle solidifies the defense
Reality: Losing Marion on the wing worsens the defense

At the time of the trade, Phoenix ranked 12th in the league in defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions), at 103.0. Since then? They're at 109.6. As you can see in the rankings, that number for a full season would put them behind the Knicks as the league's worst defense.

Much has been made of Marion's ability to defend quick point guards and remove that responsibility from Steve Nash, and indeed several quick point guards (Chris Paul, Andre Miller, Baron Davis and Mike Conley) have had nice games against the Suns lately. Also, as outlined above, the Suns' transition defense was a strong suit thanks to Marion's speed and agility; that obviously isn't the case with Shaq.

However, there's one other part of the equation folks might be missing: Marion made life easier for Raja Bell because he could defend bigger 3s. Watching Phoenix's rough night in Denver on Wednesday, it was easy to see the impact of his absence.

The Suns had to put Bell on the much bigger Carmelo Anthony. Anthony pounded Bell on the blocks, putting him in foul trouble much of the night and grabbing six offensive boards en route to a 30-point night. Similar troubles happened against Memphis (Rudy Gay blew up for 36 in a game that was close 'til the last five minutes), Philadelphia (Andre Iguodala had 32 points on 15-of-23 shooting), and Washington (the Wizards played Antawn Jamison at the 3 and he scored 28 points).

The Suns' upcoming schedule doesn't do them any favors in this regard. They still face Anthony and Gay twice more and Iguodala once, plus they have big 3s like Richard Jefferson, Josh Howard and Ron Artest on the remaining slate. Using Bell, Grant Hill or a whole lot of smoke and mirrors, somehow they have to improve the D against players of this ilk.

Theory: The Suns' style was less effective in the playoffs because teams made them play half-court
Reality: The Suns' style was less effective in the playoffs because they played better teams

This is perhaps the most confounding part of the Suns' reasoning behind the Shaq trade: The idea that in the slower pace of the playoffs, having Shaq would be to their advantage.

This might be a valid reason for making the trade, if one knew the pace of Phoenix's recent playoff games was significantly slower.

But look at the Suns in the Nash era. They haven't played much slower in the playoffs than they have in the regular season. For instance, according to 82games.com, last season they took 73 percent of their shots in the first 15 seconds of the shot clock in the regular season, and 73 percent in the playoffs. And rather than slowing things down, their opponents actually played faster, launching 35 percent of their shots in the first 10 seconds compared to 30 percent in the regular season.

A similar thing happened in 2004-05, when 75 percent of Phoenix's shots came in the first 15 seconds of the clock in both the regular season and the playoffs.

The only season in which the Suns' numbers slowed noticeably was in 2005-06, and that was entirely because of a single tactical decision by one opponent. The Lakers essentially sabotaged their own offense to slow the pace to a crawl in a seven-game series in the first round that season. I argued at the time, and continue to believe, that the tactic cost them the series.

That brings us to the next point: It takes two to tango. When the Suns have played slow in the postseason, the opponent has been the main reason. In 2005 the Suns lost to San Antonio, who played the league's eighth-slowest pace. In 2006, they lost to Dallas, who was the fifth-slowest. San Antonio continued the progression last season, playing the fourth-slowest pace and knocking Phoenix out of the playoffs.

I wonder if these losses caused Phoenix to internalize the idea that they lose to slow-paced teams in the postseason. However, a far more important differentiating factor was that they lost to better teams. In all three seasons, the Suns' opponent had a superior regular-season point differential, so it shouldn't have come as a shock that they lost. After all, the one time they played a slow-paced team with inferior regular-season results -- Memphis, the sixth-slowest team in 2004-05 -- the Suns blew them off the court in four games.

So over the past three seasons, the Suns have had only a minor deviation in pace in the playoffs, at worst. And that's a justification for a massive transformation of the roster? Furthermore, the irony is that a slower pace might not be what the Suns see this postseason.

Look at Phoenix's potential playoff opponents. The three Texas teams are plodders (though Dallas' profile with Jason Kidd may be changing), but the others can run all day. Golden State and Denver actually play a faster pace than the Suns, and the Lakers and Utah aren't far behind. If Phoenix ends up playing one of those teams -- or better yet, has a playoff path that includes three of them -- won't it seem kind of silly that they traded Marion for Shaq to accommodate for a slower postseason pace?

Of course, that might be all moot, which takes us to our final point.

Theory: This trade can't be measured until we see the Suns in the playoffs
Reality: We might not see the Suns in the playoffs

Despite its recent struggles, Phoenix seems in a comfortable position as far as reaching the playoffs goes. The Suns have a 3.5-game lead over Denver, and also are ahead of Dallas and Golden State. Finishing ahead of any of those three will guarantee them a trip to the postseason, and with just 21 games left, there isn't much time for the others to catch up.

But remember what I said about Phoenix's schedule earlier? It's rough. The Suns' finishing kick includes one top opponent after another, starting with tonight's contest against Utah. Included in that finish are two games each against Denver and Golden State. Moreover, the Suns are all but certain to lose the tiebreaker to Golden State and need a sweep to avoid the same fate with Denver.

The Hollinger Playoff Odds are starting to sense the Suns as less than a sure thing, with Phoenix's playoff odds dropping below 90 percent this week for the first time in eons. Even that percentage overstates their chances, because a good chunk of their power ranking is based on their success when they had Marion.

If you look at how the Suns have played since the trade, and the difficulty of the remaining schedule, a finish somewhere around 9-12 or 10-11 in their final 21 games doesn't seem unreasonable.

That would put them at 49 or 50 wins, which should get them in … unless the losses are to the wrong teams. If they fail to beat Denver or Golden State, for instance, it's likely that both of those teams would reach the 49-win threshold themselves. And since those teams would win the tiebreakers, it would leave Phoenix out of the mix.

I should emphasize that it's still more likely the Suns make it than not; one brief hot streak should pretty much wrap it up. That said, it would be a rather ironic conclusion to the Shaq trade. The stated purpose was to help the Suns once they got to the postseason, but nobody ever considered that it might prevent them from getting there.</blockquote>