Ok, new thread. Profile of the Successful Big Man. In the last decade, the big men (4's or 5's) that have proven themselves somewhat worthy of high draft picks are (in no particular order): Sampson, Dream, Ewing, Robinson, Shaq, Mourning, Duncan, Brand, Webber (tho I'm not a fan). I may be missing some obvious ones. Maybe this is 20/20 hindsight speaking buteveryone on this list was a sure thing stud before they ever put on a pro uniform. The list of big men draftees with a lesser pedigree is frightening: Shawn Bradley, Brad Daugherty (although he was productive for a while); Benoit Benjamin; Pervis Ellison; Sam Bowie; Charles Smith; Christian Laettner; Micheal Olowokandi; Rik Smits. I'm sure I'm missing some here too. My point is this: the profile of the stud big men are they are big and they play like it (except sampson). The profile of the loser big men are they are finesse players. Im not trying to be a Ming hater (shoot, I'm Chinese and wanted to be the first one in the NBA) but he certainly fits in the latter profile. I don't think the addition of Chinese food at the concession stands in the new arena will make me feel better if Ming turns out to be the next Pervis Bradley Bowie. I'm going to look at guards taken high in the draft and look at their success rate. Off the top of my head, I can think of Francis, Barron Davis, Payton, Kidd, Marbury (to a much lesser degree), Penny Hardaway (pre injuries, he was decent), Kenny Andersen (the least successful of the bunch). Oh yeah, there was that Jordan guy. Conclusion: this is like any business. with the No. 1 pick, you don't take a WAG (wild ass guess). You develop a probability model, come up with an expected value, and take the guy that has the highest one. I still want J. Williams dammit. I'm sure there are few people that would not take Barron Davis with the No. 1 pick in this draft, and Williams is comparable to both Francis and Davis. Take the freaking flyer with the No. 15 pick and hope for the next Karl Malone. If you get the next Kenny Thomas, oh well, it was the No. 15 pick. (Don't get me wrong, I like KT.) I'm sure nobody will have anything to say about this topic . . .
Rileydog - I am also big on probability modeling (I've done it for a living and enjoy statistics - maybe too much so). There are many threads questioning Yao Mings' abilities. Please click on the link and see what Mings NBA competition will be like: http://bbs.clutchcity.net/showthread.php?s=&threadid=34249 IMHO, within a +/- 3 Standard Deviation with total bust as the -3 and HOF'er as the +3 Standard Deviation, my most likely scenario (64% for +1/-1 STD) is that Yao will be statistically Rik Smits. I am on record as stating that is good enough for me. And your probability range is...?
Marbury is a good player...not sure why you would say to a much lesser degree. Before injuries, Hardaway was much better than decent. This guy had all-star, olympics(And he did play in 1996) written all over him. You will find that not too many will agree with you on big men. If you look at past champions, most at least had a very good big man or had a great guard(Jordan, Thomas).
Gater, I like your analysis about the competition at center in 2 years. My feeling of inevitable doom and failure with drafting Ming is down to horrible loathing that is eating the inner lining of my stomach. Seriously, I like Ming a lot better with that frame of reference. I'll have to give this more thought . . . I've been obsessing about Rockets stuff lately. But, my gut reaction: 1. Fundamentally, I'm a little more pessimistic about Ming than you. I'm not sure that Ming will probably put up Smits numbers. I'm thinking that may be his max upside. That said, I'm thinking Christian Laettner as Ming's likely outcome. Max upside would be something like Nowitski. But it's a wild ass guess b/c I don't have enough info. That's part of the problem inherent with players that have not competed at the top collegiate level. Not enough info. 2. With most players, all one does is evaluate his talent and evaluate risk. With Ming, we have to factor the Chinese Govt, which is a risk that's hard to measure. We know it's a negative factor tho. I haven't thought this through but If Ming turns out to be Smits, he is not a star in the NBA and the Chinese Govt might just pull him back, saying that he has had his run in the NBA and will be a star in China. (We can't really hide a 7 foot 5 chinese guy in Houston) 3. I'm trying to think of avg outcome for JWill. I'm thinking Norm Nixon/John Lucas, with an upside of Thomas or Dumars like career. As much as I could not stand the Pistons, I'm all about winning. I'd love to pair Williams with Francis (dump mobley for a rebounder) and have them run hog wild like Bibby and Jackson have done on the Lakers (yes, I know the Kings have Webber and Divac, whereas we have Taylor and Cato). What do you think about Williams' likely outcome and topside potential? VJ - do you disagree with my profile for a big man that's worthy of No. 1? Jordan had Cartwright and Grant, Thomas had Laimbeer, Mahorn and Rodman. The things they had in common? They played like big men. Defend and Rebound. If Smits, Laimbeer and Cartwright were available at No. 1, I would take Smits last b'c the Rockets need defense and rebounding the most.
Rileydog - Some comments. Since Ming is an unknown quantity, it is normal to look for negatives. That to some degree is human nature. Let me put a different spin on this. Whereas most people look at the Chinese government as the enemy, I look at them as the ally. The Chinese government wants to establish itself as a credible world basketball power. This is enhanced by the fact that the 2008 Olympics is in Beijing. Yao Mings success is crucially important to them. Given these factors, you can see that the Rockets and the Chinese government have a mutually vested interest in Yao's success. Now, if Ming is only Smits, he will bring enough inside presence, shot blocking, rebounding, shooting range and passing skills to get the Rockets into the second round...maybe further. How far can he take the current Knicks with this skill level? The Rockets with Francis, Cat and an emerging EG are a good team. IMO, far superior to the Knicks. So, I ask you this...two years from now Ming is putting up Smits-like numbers and playing in the WC Finals with the Rocks or he is dominating the EC and the team can't get out of the first round (think Garnett). Which do you think is preferable to the Chinese government? I am tired now and worn out by the Kings/Lakers game 5 but I will contemplate the Standard Deviation probability on Jay Williams later.
I've given up on Ming. I want Caron Butler or Dunleavy. We would have been better off with the #3 pick. Instead we feel pressured to take Rik Smits? This is crazy. Webber and Divac are freaking all universe compared to Fat Taylor and Cato. Divac gives 100% even on his flops. Webber can drive to the whole. The Kings kill us with Steve Francis paired with a 28 year old Michael Jordan, since we'll be saddled by Rudy T's going with Glen Rice as well.
Brad Daughtery was an all star 5 out of 8 yrs until his back went out. I think everyone has a valid point, but to me its pretty simple. He fills a huge hole and probably has the highest upside of any player in the draft. He's been playing against pro competition since he was like 16, that why he developed the outside game. He's atheletic , can put the ball on the floor and is huge as hell. I think his upside could be as high as he wants it to be. Its other players i like in the draft, but we play in the west and need good big players. If there was a Grant Hill or Glen Robinson like in the 94 draft, i wouldn't ming drafting a 3, but there isn't. The supposedly best 3 is Dunleavy whom people say is very weak even for a 3 man. Caron Butler is good, but his size is in question, plus his background is a issue. I could go on and on, but every player in the draft has issues about there game. If it was science, would Kobe had gone 13th? he went behind the like of Todd Fuller. What about Pierce going 10th after he was a all american at Kansas. Would Larry Hughes,Robert Trailor or some of those guys gone before him? Its all a crapshoot.
because we all know how badly smits dominated with his rebounding and shotblocking, career averages of about 6 and 1.25 respectivley.
Gater - another good point about the 2008 Olympics. I guess Red China will want Ming to develop in the NBA until then, so that he can open up a big can of Ramen noodles on the rest of the world (I can say this, I'm from Taiwan). After last night's game, I'm ready to trade our No. 1 for Bibby. (ok, no replies on this please. i'm kidding) But man, did you guys see the gleam in his eye. He knew that freakin shot was going in. His heroics add evidence to my argument: college success and pedigree count. It's a way to limit risk. I think if I scream I want J. Williams enough, it will eventually come true. Oh, I forgot that dude Allen Iverson in my list of high pedigree/can't miss guard prospects. Also, there was Chris Jackson (Mahmoud Abdul Raouf) who was pretty good until he quit standing for the national anthem and got himself blackballed from the league and maybe his turets syndrome took over. About Webber - dude looked like he was going to soil his shorts when he had the ball with the clock ticking down last night. He nearly fumbled away the game, and was just lying on the ground like he already lost. Don't get me wrong, he played a good game. But in the NBA, you need a clutch guy to win the big games. Not superstar, just clutch. Sure, there are Jordan's and Bryants, but you also have the Elie, Horry, Cassell's of the world. The Rockets lost many close games this past year, and likely next year, because no clutch guy has emerged. In his brief career, Francis has missed on several opportunities to shine in the clutch. He says its all on him this year if the Rockets don't make the playoffs. He's got that right.
Touche (I guess). What we got from Cato in wins against playoff teams: 7 pts, 6 boards, 1 block vs Mavs on April 11th. 4 pts, 10 boards, 2 blocks vs Seattle on April 2. 6 pts, 3 boards, 0 blocks vs Minn on Mar 13. 6 pts, 8 boards, 2 blocks vs Seattle on Mar 12. 8 pts, 4 boards, 4 blocks vs Utah on Mar 10. 1 pts, 3 boards, 0 blocks vs Toronto on Mar 5. In a season when the Rockets won a whopping 28 games, this was all they needed at Center to win 6 against playoff teams in their stretch runs. IMHO, a consistent 12/6/1.25 is better than having another point guard. I might add that Smits averaged 14.8 ppg in 104 playoff games.
Glen Rice. The overwhelming majority of posters were excited to get Rice last summer. Amidst great screams of joy, a small group of us (Will, JAG, leebigez, myself) put up solid arguments against Rice. Last summer was depressing...that's why I'm really excited about this summer. I want Ming, but I could be happy with a number of scenarios which improve the team. Unfortunately, I don't agree with you that we need two PG's. Please hold your excitement for at least 7 picks if the Rockets do draft Jay Williams 1st. You may hear David Stern say "we have a trade".
What we got from Cato in wins against playoff teams: 7 pts, 6 boards, 1 block vs Mavs on April 11th. 4 pts, 10 boards, 2 blocks vs Seattle on April 2. 6 pts, 3 boards, 0 blocks vs Minn on Mar 13. 6 pts, 8 boards, 2 blocks vs Seattle on Mar 12. 8 pts, 4 boards, 4 blocks vs Utah on Mar 10. 1 pts, 3 boards, 0 blocks vs Toronto on Mar 5. In a season when the Rockets won a whopping 28 games, this was all they needed at Center to win 6 against playoff teams in their stretch runs. Gater, I am not dissing your analysis, but Cato won that game for us against Utah. I don't care if he only had 8 points and 4 rebounds. Four blocks is pretty good, but he could of had a 100 and it wouldn't have mattered if we had lost. He did make the key play when he blocked Malone and caused the hissy fit that the game turned on. I think this is what Rileydog is saying. Some players make the plays, some don't. Sometimes its a shot that wins games, sometimes its a rebound. Sometimes it is as minor as turning the offensive player toward the help defense as opposed to letting him go baseline. Not all things show up in the stats.
Pat - like everyone else, I am trying to develop a realistic expectation of Yao Ming. A conservative approach works best for me (less expection = more pleasant surprise). I am not particularly anti-Cato. But when the Rocks are healthy and he shows up mentally, they are a tough team. I do have the expectation that Yao's numbers will exceed Cato's!
Gater: I generally agree we don't need two PG's, but I'm trying to think outside the box. If you have two guards that handle the ball very well but also score very well, either one can initiate the offense and shoot from outside. I'm assuming that if we get and keep J Will, we dump Mobley. Mobley is a good player on a mediocre/bad team. I think Mobley is holding Francis back. Like any great athlete, Francis should play with those that are as good as he is, so that he can get better. If you just hang out with people that you're way better than, it's tough to improve yourself. Mediocrity begets mediocrity. Picking up on your analysis in the other thread (about big men in the league in the next 2 years), the league may be hitting a period where it is dominated by guard play (like when the Pistons and Bulls ruled). If so, I'd take my chances with a Francis/Williams duo. Mebbe we keep Mobley (as the Vinnie Johnson of the Rockets) and dump Moochie. I think its far easier to use a low first round or even second round pick to find a bruiser/rebounder with no scoring ability (the wallace or rodman types.) How the Rockets play their hand will determine the fate of the organization for the next 10 years. Either they will become a first rate contender or they will be just good enough to litter the 6-8 playoff spot for the next decade (which would preclude any further high draft picks). I live in fear of the Blade Part II (buck johnson) or dave jamerson or derek chievous (I wonder if his mouth is still wide open). Didn't we also pick some nobody named John Thomas or something like that? Separately, this probably belongs in another forum, but does anybody else think that the Payton/McMillan/Kemp/Schremph/Ellis/Pierce Sonics were the best team not to win a title? The 2 years that the Rockets won, we didn't have to face them (thank God.) All the other years, they beat us. Also, the Kings are very similar to those Sonics. They played a totally different style but the commonality is that neither team carried a true superstar. I would not object to the Rockets building a team based on that model. There are very few true superstars, and Francis has not proven himself to be at the elite level.
I think that if there are two players of similar talent levels, ceilings, etc..., you should usually go with the big man.(Think Jordan-Olajuwon, Webber-Hardaway, Brand-Francis(Although, I think in this matchup, eiher player could be taken)) I would take Laimbeer over Smits as well. Laimbeer had similar offensive skills to Smits, and was a much tougher player...Cartwright is a very smart basketball player, and I think he was a pretty good defender/rebounder, so I would probably take Smits over him as well. But the one area in which I am pretty sure that Yao can help us in is in defence. He might not even be that great of a shotblocker, but in a half- man to man half-zone he could man the middle and alter shots right and left. Forget about any shotblocking instincts he may have, his outstretched arms touch the rim... That said, I would rather deal the pick and let someone else take on the gamble. I would not, however, trade for another guard...Why? That is just taking small ball too far...Four point guards who all deserve to be in the rotation(Francis, Williams, Norris, Brown) is about two too many.
I do have the expectation that Yao's numbers will exceed Cato's! I also expect Ming to put up better numbers than Cato, however that does not mean that the team will be improved. Last year a lot of our opponents went to the hole on us, and we would have to put Cato in to slow that down (unfortunately we could not close down the middle, slow down was our best). If Cato is out, and Ming in, I think the same problem exists. Ming will help on the zone and in effecting shots by people driving to the hoop (I hope- I also believe in realistic expectations), but I think it will be an open door policy to big men. Seperate question - does anybody keep a plus minus record for the Rockets, or know where to find that?
I really don't think it should be this complicated. First, the Rockets in no way need Jason Williams on this team. There is a reason you have never ever seen a successful (championship) NBA team with 3 great guards but no interior play. Twin Towers can work, twin guards doesn't. Draft Williams and trade Molbey then? Why? For the money, Mobley may be one of the top players in the league. He was top 15 in scoring and shot the ball at an efficient clip for alarge majority of the second half of the season. He's holding Francis back? There were many times in the season (the game against Milwaukee where we broke our long losing streak, for example) where I seriously questioned which was the better, or at least, more explosive, player. If anything, as Gater says, drafting Williams will mean we trade him. The Rockets have an obvious need down low. They need someone who can score efficiently, rebound, play good defense, run the break, and play hard 100% of the time, all of which Ming seems to do (whether or not he will be that in a dominant manner is the only question in my mind). Second, statistics and probabilities help, but, especially when we are talking about such a low sample size (what, maybe 50 number 1 picks, although I doubt people are even thinking that far back), they should be taken with a grain of salt here. By all accounts, Garnett, Kobe, Nowitski, Gasol, etc should not have statistically succeeded in the NBA for one reason or another and they did/have. Third, Ming should be evaluated mainly on a talent basis. Scouts/GM's etc look at his overall game, watch tape, saw the workout, have report after report on him and judsge from there. Alll of the reports I've heard sound positive enough for me to believe that in a few years he won't only be a Rik Smits, but a dominating bigman. I agree that skill wise he does have weaknesses. He needs to learn how to play better defense and develope more of an inside game (I think people have overexxagerated the extent to which Ming's game is outside versus inside btw - Griffin had one of the worst post games I'd seen in a while last year, yet many here still think he'll become a solid post player - and why not, he, like Ming, has the tools to do so). But he has enough skill right now, and enough talent, to put up ROY numbers, imo. I know the CBA isn't D-I basketball, but it isn't highscool level either. Ming absolutely dominated that league. He already is a STUD in his own right. Just because it isn't against D-I competition doesn't make it any less of an accomplishment, imo, given the numbers he put up. I honestly don't think Drew Gooden, or Wilcox or Jay Williams would have put up comparable numbers in the manner that Ming did. Finally, non talent issues come into play. How tough will it be to sign him to a reasonable deal? How good are the trade offers coming in for either him or Williams, etc, etc? These issues, in my opinion, should be the only things holding the team back from finalizing their opinion to draft Ming already.
Do you not remember the Pistons? Unless I missed someone I do not remember their great interior presence. All this probability crap is just that...crap. You take the player you think will have the most impact over a career. It might be Ming ( I don't think so) but there is no way I trust the Chinese government. What the hell happens when China and the US have some sort of diplomatic incident?
