math is your friend. 30 teams - 16 teams in playoffs = 14 teams in lottery So, we could be 14th worst (or 17th best) and still have "a chance" at a top 3 pick. Albeit a microscopic one
5, 7, 9 Those have been lucky positions right there. The Rockets was actually at 5 when they landed Yao back in 01-02
Wikipedia is your friend: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery#Process 30. 250 combinations, 25.0% chance of receiving the #1 pick 29. 199 combinations, 19.9% chance 28. 156 combinations, 15.6% chance 27. 119 combinations, 11.9% chance 26. 88 combinations, 8.8% chance 25. 63 combinations, 6.3% chance 24. 43 combinations, 4.3% chance 23. 28 combinations, 2.8% chance 22. 17 combinations, 1.7% chance 21. 11 combinations, 1.1% chance 20. 8 combinations, 0.8% chance 19. 7 combinations, 0.7% chance 18. 6 combinations, 0.6% chance 17. 5 combinations, 0.5% chance
Technically we could be the ninth best, assuming the entire Eastern Conference sucked to the point were no team would have qualified in the West.
I might be wrong - but that wiki info seems to be related to gaining the number 1 pick. The question is about the top 3?
If I am understanding your question correctly, We would have to be the best team(record-wise) in the entire league not to make the playoffs. In the WC, I guestimating that would be somewhere in the 38-42 win range. Any team that doesn't make the playoffs has a chance to get into the top 3. With the worst team, record-wise, having the best statistical chance, 2nd worst team having the 2nd best statistical chance and so on and so forth all the way to the team that has the best record not to make the playoffs. Unless a team has the rights to another lottery teams draft pick or makes a trade, no team that makes the playoffs can get in the top 14 in the draft with their own pick.
So based on the chart, a team has to be at least the 6th worst to get a decent chance (21.5%) to obtain a top 3 picks.
Then you have to combine the odds of GETTING the #1 pick with the odds of the player you pick becoming a superstar worthy of tanking an entire season for. Roughly 50% of the #1 picks over the last 20 years became superstars -- meaning the other HALF of them ranged from borderline allstars to absolute busts. Someone has to remind everyone: "What a great idea! Let's tank the season [...] for an inknown commodity! Not smart."
wouldnt this be considered the top three? 30. 250 combinations, 25.0% chance of receiving the #1 pick 29. 199 combinations, 19.9% chance 28. 156 combinations, 15.6% chance
