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High Risk 2010 FA play to add Max Free Agent

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by trugoy, Nov 8, 2009.

  1. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    Here is a way it could happen and still retain nearly everybody. And it is all thanks to Yao Ming's injury!

    Yao has a player option in 2011 and is coming off a nearly career ending injury, if he recovers fully, he will be a max salary guy, if he doesn't he most likely will retire after 2011 season.

    I don't actually see many options between those two, so for him and his management team the 2011 season is crucial for his future salary and career.

    Assuming the CAP in 2010 is at $53million, if we renounce lowry and trade anderson, keep the cap hold on scola, we will be at about $45mill. If we then have Yao Ming renounce his Player option and sign a 6 year deal starting at 9 million, we will have about $17 million for a Max FA deal.

    The reason why Yao would do this is simple, the contract would be a 6 year deal starting at 9 million = total $77 million with an ETO at 4 years, also, there would be a no trade clause. This means that if he doesn't recover he will have $77million in guaranteed contract, I think that is quite a good deal for his risky health.

    If he does recover, his salary will be underpaid but he has an ETO and he can renegotiate after 4 years and he has a no trade clause so that guarantees houston will be loyal to him.

    Once again this is high risk so I would not recommend this unless we have a verbal agreement with Lebron or Wade, but I think the risk is worth the reward.
     
  2. Fullcourt

    Fullcourt Member

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    Yao would never do that and neither would we.
     
  3. RV6

    RV6 Member

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    another thing, yao will be able to play by late in the season, by the time the summer comes around, both the rockets and yao will have a good idea of whether Yao can come back or not, even if doesn't suit up this yr.
     
  4. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    why not
     
  5. RV6

    RV6 Member

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    and why would he retire??? Even at 70% he could be a decent center and still make a couple millions, i cant see him going out like that.
     
  6. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    Coming back is one thing, but how about playing a full season of NBA ball. Imagine if Yao comes back exercises his Player option, and then breaks his foot again in 2011. Basically he will be forced to retire, this way he has a good insurance policy on his health.
     
  7. RV6

    RV6 Member

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    His foot/ankle joint area was realigned. I think many fans missed that part of his surgery. Is his size still going to make it more likely for him to be injured? Yes, but they've already knocked out the major cause of his injuries. All were related to that left foot, except for a toe infection and a break he had on his right leg, which was purely accidental, not stress related. Big Z has had the surgery and done well since, so there's hope that not only will he be back, but not injure it again.

    If Yao is back to form in practice by this summer, that's proof enough that he can play well again, the rockets don't have leverage there. They can't ask "what if you get injured again" because he'll already have fixed the root of that problem. Yao simply being big and tall isn't much leverage for Houston.

    Houston would have the advantage only if Yao didn't round back to 100% and they still wanted him back, then they may be able to persuade him to sign for less.

    Even if he does break his foot again, why would he not try another comeback? He'd be what, 30 or 31? I could see him trying again at that point.
     
  8. ty185

    ty185 Member

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    how so? If Yao is only good for 30 games a season, I'm willing to bet that there will be contending teams paying him MLE money and let him sit out the whole regular season and only activate him in the playoffs... :)


    And no, I don't think Yao will get injured with 30 games a season even with his injury proness...
     
  9. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    My point is purely from a contract p.o.v.

    If he does break his foot again in 2011, how much could he command as a FA? I doubt anyone would offer him more than a 3 year MLE.

    This is purely a risk mitigation move for Yao Ming, he gets a great guaranteed contract without having to prove he is injury free.
     
  10. dragonz

    dragonz Member

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    ok, i'm not gona start a thread on this one, but from source: Court Report: King-sized Loss

    Come on, Joe, you know where the most unselfish team in NBA is, come to papa!
     
  11. {icebox425}

    {icebox425} Member

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    I don't really know if I want a guy who disappears in playoffs and criticises his teammates publically.
     
  12. Mr Chuck Norris

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    inb4 T-Mac mention
     
  13. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Member

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    I actually like this idea. Except for the Lowry part.

    Whoever comes here is going to have to understand that the bulk of their income might not come from their NBA team salary but rather endorsements from being a teammate of you-know-who. And I refuse to believe that a guy like Lebron or Wade has maxed out his marketability in China just by virtue of the Olympics.

    Anyways, the numbers are too convoluted to even begin fathoming calculating, so I'll leave that to people with more guts and even less knowledge than me. Until then the 2010 offseason remains for the Rockets what it is for 30-40% of the NBA teams--a fantasyland where all your wildest dreams may yet come true. Will Lebron Wade and Bosh all sign for the veteran's minimum just to win a championship? It could happen!

    And actually now that I think about it, they might want to consider one-year deals to allow the salary cap to get back to normal levels...man, how am I gonna sleep now? STOP TOYING WITH MY MIND.
     
  14. {icebox425}

    {icebox425} Member

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    Haha, I didn't even mention him! You did!

    I'm actually one of the few people on here who don't mind Tracy. Besides, his playoff numbers are actually really good, and I can't recall him publicly criticising his teammates, although I'm sure someone will provide me with an example.
     
  15. hoplite

    hoplite Member

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    "it was my fault, my fault my teamates couldn't make shots, my fault a fan ordered a heinikein (sp?) and got a budw, it was all my fault." man I love Tracy. Yea, this isn't really an example of him criticising his teamates, but it's still funny to me!!
     
  16. RV6

    RV6 Member

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    the point is he doesn't really have to prove it. He's had the surgery to realign the joint, and if he's back to practice, running hard, jumping, etc. That's good enough to show the surgery worked for the most part if it's not affecting his basic movement. That would probably be the biggest question mark, not whether he'd get another stress fracture there.

    I just don't think the rockets have as much leverage as you think, so yao has no reason to limit himself to that kind of contract.
     
  17. RedRowdy111

    RedRowdy111 Member

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    1. I wouldnt offer Yao a 6 year deal coming off this injury. Huge risk for the team. 3-4 years...sure no problem.

    2. As of right now, I see no reason to just let a guy like Lowry walk. Renounce his rights? The guy is a serious asset.

    3. Trading Andersen was a random idea. I think he might be a decent backup to Yao in the future. In all reality, too early to tell. Battier might be more appropriate, depending on (a.) what position you are targeting in free agency and (b.) the progression of Chade Budinger and Trevor Ariza.

    4. I really dont believe we will have to offer a max contract. I think the Lebron, Wade, and Bosh combo will all elude Houston. The next tier of players might be more realistic and a better bargin. (Joe Johnson, Rudy Gay, etc.)
    :cool:

    Here is the updated free agent list:
    http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=FreeAgents-09-10
     
  18. smasstastic

    smasstastic Member

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    That's why they call him high risk low reward Morey...or wait...
     
  19. rodmanhust

    rodmanhust Member

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    Even Yao gets hurt again in 2011, if not really serious, I don't think he'll simply retire. The guy is not that old.


     
  20. Cosmonaut

    Cosmonaut Member

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    I like the idea but it wouldnt be as easy as that, To be honest I don't think Yao deserves over 10 million, he has been an absolute liability with injuries for 4 seasons now, and well if Yao walks away from the Rockets cause we won't give him enough money thats fine by me
     

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