http://www.reuters.com/printerFriendlyPopup.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=3769468 Jobless Claims Plunge, Productivity Soars Thu November 06, 2003 09:30 AM ET By Tim Ahmann WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing first-time claims for jobless benefits took an unexpectedly sharp plunge last week, reaching a level not seen since before the economy tumbled into recession in 2001, a government report showed on Thursday. A separate report showed U.S. business productivity soared in the third quarter, suggesting little risk inflation will flare despite signs the economic recovery is on firmer ground. Initial claims for state unemployment aid fell 43,000 to 348,000 in the week to Nov. 1 from a revised 391,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said. It was the lowest level since late January 2001, two months before the recession began. Stocks were poised to open higher on the data, which suggested an improvement in corporate profits and offered hope a jobs recovery may finally be at hand. Prices for U.S. Treasury securities fell sharply, while the dollar rose. Economists had expected claims to slip to 380,000 from 386,000 -- a figure boosted by a grocery store strike in California -- initially reported for the week to Oct. 25. "The large drop in claims ... confirms that firms have begun to hire and employment has turned up," said Jade Zelnik, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets. A spokesman for the department said he could not account for the big drop in claims last week, but said problems with seasonal adjustment of the data could be a factor. "Every week we encourage (looking at) the four-week average. This is certainly one of those weeks," he said. The four-week average, which smoothes weekly volatility to present a clearer picture of labor-market trends, fell 10,000 to 380,000 last week, its lowest level since March 2001. Initial claims and the four-week average have been below 400,000 for five weeks. Economists see that level as a divide between an improving and deteriorating labor market. PRODUCTIVITY SURGE Last week, the government reported that the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 7.2 percent in the third quarter, the strongest pace in nearly two decades. Despite that, the economy shed 41,000 non-farm jobs as gains in productivity enabled firms to meet increased demand for goods and services without expanding their workforce. The Labor Department said on Thursday non-farm business productivity climbed at an 8.1 percent annual rate in the third quarter, accelerating from an upwardly revised 7.0 percent gain in the prior three months. The increase reflected a rise in output that was the strongest in over 10 years, and only a small increase in the number of hours workers put in on the job. The productivity gain pushed unit labor costs -- a gauge of potential wage pressures -- down at a 4.6 percent pace, suggesting a good quarterly performance for corporate profit. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast an 8.5 percent gain in productivity and a 4.7 percent drop in unit labor costs. Analysts say the recent productivity pace is unsustainably strong, and some said the fall in jobless claims suggested firms were finally having to hire to meet demand. On Friday, the department releases its employment report for October. Financial market economists are looking for U.S. payrolls to rise 55,000 after a 57,000 gain in September. They expect the jobless rate to hold steady at 6.1 percent.
Excellent news, but this iIS the rate of first-time filings. Hopefully this keeps up and the overall unemployment rate will lower. I mean, if a lot of people continue to become unemployed, it will hit a ceiling at some point. Nevertheless, this is a good sign that I hope shows we are on the way back up!
Max, to be a jerk about it, wouldn't it be more accurate for your thread title to be "There Go Not as Many Jobs"?
This can't be true. It must be a lie. Bush probably wrote it that lying liar. (By logic isn't a lying liar in fact telling the truth?)
I posted a very similar article in bigtexxx's economy thread. The bottom line is that this news is the liberals' worst nightmare. A poor economy is what every liberal is hoping for next November. It is their only chance to win.
couple of thought here sam: 1. it does appear like you're rooting against job growth. like you're rooting against recovery to better position candidates. whether or not that's what you intend or not, i don't know...but it sure comes across that way. 2. there is ALWAYS unemployment. always. always. no matter how good the economy is. so you could make that statement every time the job market picks up...but it's like telling only part of the story. the fact is, more people are finding work. less people are filing for unemployment benefits. that's good news. don't pee on the parade.
This article points out that only 348,000 people LOST THEIR JOBS in 1 week. We are still losing jobs week after week in this country and yet some people are trying to make this out as if the unemployment rate is dropping, which it hasn't. Point to this if you like, but the fact remains that over a third of a million people lost their jobs in the week in question, not exactly an indicator that the economy is roaring.
i'll repost it again....because i know your glass can't be that half-empty. It was the lowest level since late January 2001, two months before the recession began.
(damn the no edit) That is not to say that I wouldn't love to see the economy going again. In the poll a few weeks ago, I voted that I would rather have the economy going, Iraq under control, and Bush reelected. I am not trying to pee on your parade, but you are parading on the fact that ONLY a third of a million people lost jobs last week.
Any stats on how many new jobs were created last week or how many people stopped getting unemployment as a result of getting a job?
I'll believe it when the Sunday Houston Chronicle jobs section gets larger than 4 pages. I'll really believe it when the Information Technology section of the Sunday Houston Chronicle jobs section gets longer than one column. Until then......
So, based on my grade school math class, if we lost 348,000 jobs in one week and are expected to gain 55,000 jobs per month, that means that we will only lose 1.2-1.3 million jobs this month. What a recovery!!!
so andy..there's nothing positive about this at all? nothing that indicates recovery to you at all? despite the fact economists disagree with you, you're sticking with your story,huh?
