Have the Rockets improved over the last month? That is the question I am attempting to answer here. About a month ago, I started a thread with some statistical analysis regarding offensive efficiency (OE) and defensive efficiency (DE) as a mechanism to determine a teams worth (of course with the main interest being where do the Rockets fare). During that thread the main criticism was that I did not include the strength of schedule. An updated post with the strength of schedule (SOS) was included here (post #46 in thread listed above). Although the calculations are correct, I erred in that I posted the graph with the SOS for the LA Lakers. Furthermore, an updated post where an exponential (EXP) forgetting factor was added to the rankings. The idea here is that older games carry less weight. This post can be found here (post #47 in thread listed above). Now back to question... Have the Rockets improved over the last month? Well, before I can answer I need to know a little more. In other words, am I interested in seeing if these Rockets are better than the Rockets that played in November or how do the Rockets fare with the rest of league. Efficiency Chart Here is a plot of normalized OE versus normalized DE. For clarification, the higher the OE the better the team is in offensive end and conversely, the lower the DE the better the team is in the defensive end. <table style="width:auto;"><tr><td><a href="http://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/c8JIn-VRA0DoiBUue9B43A?feat=embedwebsite"><img src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/_8u4A05PwTfw/TRMyCL3CHEI/AAAAAAAACQE/69nYwIk7Ivw/s640/nba10_pr_norm_chart26.jpg" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td style="font-family:arial,sans-serif; font-size:11px; text-align:right">From <a href="http://picasaweb.google.com/jsmee2000/PowerRankings?feat=embedwebsite">Power Rankings</a></td></tr></table> For comparison here is the chart from a month ago. <table style="width:auto;"><tr><td><a href="http://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/Lb9G4LsT7f-hqpYR31i5UA?feat=embedwebsite"><img src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/_8u4A05PwTfw/TPAzy5HKs8I/AAAAAAAACOE/nnTN6-m7dNs/s640/nba10_pr_norm_chart13.jpg" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td style="font-family:arial,sans-serif; font-size:11px; text-align:right">From <a href="http://picasaweb.google.com/jsmee2000/PowerRankings?feat=embedwebsite">Power Rankings</a></td></tr></table> Defense It is evident by comparison of the two charts that either two things have occurred: Either the Rockets are better defensively or the league average has deteriorated. Comparing the numbers for defensive efficiency for 13 games and 26 games, the league has worsened by 0.14 (not negligible but quite small). Given that the Rockets have moved to the left in the chart by more than 0.14, the Rockets have improved their defensive efficiency over last month (to be precise by -1.17). That is a major plus given the Rockets original struggles in the defensive end! Offense It is clearly evident by comparison of the two charts that Rockets OE may have improved. Comparing the numbers for offensive efficiency for 13 games and 26 games, the league has worsened by 0.30. Given that the Rockets moved up in the chart by more than 0.30, the Rockets have improved their offensive efficiency as well (to be precise by +1.85). This is excellent, I wonder which player or combination of players is/are responsible for this increase. Overall Compared to the rest of the league, the Rockets have improved compared to a month ago (with only 13 games into the season). Animated Efficiency Chart Here is a chart that only includes the Rockets for the first 26 games. Basically, there is only one red dot that you can follow to see how the Rockets have moved through out the season. The red dot is encapsulated by a blue ellipsoid that indicates that amount of error in the measurement. Therefore, as the season progresses the error will get smaller as more data is presented to the algorithm. This means that the average (the red dot) contains less error (is more accurate representation of where the Rockets are at). Finally, in the lower left quadrant you shall find the score of the particular game played. It is looping so it will start again when you don't see the blue ellipsoid. I have posted a slow (1 fps) and a fast (5 fps) gif. <a href="http://s1106.photobucket.com/albums/h370/jsmee2000/?action=view&current=hou_oede_26_games.gif" target="_blank"><img src="http://i1106.photobucket.com/albums/h370/jsmee2000/hou_oede_26_games.gif" border="0" alt="Photobucket"></a> <a href="http://s1106.photobucket.com/albums/h370/jsmee2000/?action=view&current=hou_oede_26_games_fast.gif" target="_blank"><img src="http://i1106.photobucket.com/albums/h370/jsmee2000/hou_oede_26_games_fast.gif" border="0" alt="Photobucket"></a> Power Rankings The Rockets have played a total of 28 games but teams like Sacramento have only played 26 games so I only include the league minimum. Therefore, these rankings do not include the @GSW and @LAC games. Because Sacramento plays tonight I could update with the @GSW game. Here are the power rankings with 26 games into the season for all three metrics discussed in the previous thread. Note that the more data that is presented the smaller the blue ellipsoid for each team becomes. Consequently, the more robust these rankings become. <style type="text/css"> table.tableizer-table {border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;} .tableizer-table th {background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;} </style> <table class="tableizer-table"> <tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>OE, DE</th><th>OE, DE, SOS</th><th>OE, DE, SOS, EXP</th></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>1. Miami Heat</td><td>1. Miami Heat</td><td>1. Miami Heat</td></tr> <tr><td>2. San Antonio Spurs</td><td>2. Boston Celtics</td><td>2. Boston Celtics</td></tr> <tr><td>3. Boston Celtics</td><td>3. San Antonio Spurs</td><td>3. San Antonio Spurs</td></tr> <tr><td>4. Los Angeles Lakers</td><td>4. Los Angeles Lakers</td><td>4. Los Angeles Lakers</td></tr> <tr><td>5. Dallas Mavericks</td><td>5. Dallas Mavericks</td><td>5. Dallas Mavericks</td></tr> <tr><td>6. Chicago Bulls</td><td>6. Chicago Bulls</td><td>6. Chicago Bulls</td></tr> <tr><td>7. Utah Jazz</td><td>7. Utah Jazz</td><td>7. Utah Jazz</td></tr> <tr><td>8. Orlando Magic</td><td>8. Orlando Magic</td><td>8. Orlando Magic</td></tr> <tr><td>9. New Orleans Hornets</td><td>9. New Orleans Hornets</td><td>9. Denver Nuggets</td></tr> <tr><td>10. Denver Nuggets</td><td>10. Denver Nuggets</td><td>10. New Orleans Hornets</td></tr> <tr><td>11. Oklahoma City</td><td>11. Oklahoma City</td><td>11. Oklahoma City</td></tr> <tr><td>12. Atlanta Hawks</td><td>12. Portland Trailblazers</td><td>12. Portland Trailblazers</td></tr> <tr><td>13. Philadelphia 76ers</td><td>13. Atlanta Hawks</td><td>13. Atlanta Hawks</td></tr> <tr><td>14. New York Knicks</td><td>14. Philadelphia 76ers</td><td>14. Houston Rockets</td></tr> <tr><td>15. Portland Trailblazers</td><td>15. Houston Rockets</td><td>15. New York Knicks</td></tr> <tr><td>16. Houston Rockets</td><td>16. New York Knicks</td><td>16. Philadelphia 76ers</td></tr> <tr><td>17. Memphis Grizzlies</td><td>17. Memphis Grizzlies</td><td>17. Memphis Grizzlies</td></tr> <tr><td>18. Phoenix Suns</td><td>18. Phoenix Suns</td><td>18. Phoenix Suns</td></tr> <tr><td>19. Indiana Pacers</td><td>19. Indiana Pacers</td><td>19. Indiana Pacers</td></tr> <tr><td>20. Milwaukee Bucks</td><td>20. Milwaukee Bucks</td><td>20. Milwaukee Bucks</td></tr> <tr><td>21. Toronto Raptors</td><td>21. Toronto Raptors</td><td>21. Toronto Raptors</td></tr> <tr><td>22. Charlotte Bobcats</td><td>22. Charlotte Bobcats</td><td>22. Charlotte Bobcats</td></tr> <tr><td>23. New Jersey Nets</td><td>23. Golden State Warriors</td><td>23. Golden State Warriors</td></tr> <tr><td>24. Detroit Pistons</td><td>24. New Jersey Nets</td><td>24. New Jersey Nets</td></tr> <tr><td>25. Golden State Warriors</td><td>25. Detroit Pistons</td><td>25. Detroit Pistons</td></tr> <tr><td>26. Los Angeles Clippers</td><td>26. Los Angeles Clippers</td><td>26. Los Angeles Clippers</td></tr> <tr><td>27. Washington Wizards</td><td>27. Washington Wizards</td><td>27. Washington Wizards</td></tr> <tr><td>28. Minnesota Timberwolves</td><td>28. Minnesota Timberwolves</td><td>28. Minnesota Timberwolves</td></tr> <tr><td>29. Sacramento Kings</td><td>29. Sacramento Kings</td><td>29. Sacramento Kings</td></tr> <tr><td>30. Cleveland Cavaliers</td><td>30. Cleveland Cavaliers</td><td>30. Cleveland Cavaliers</td></tr></table> Last but not least... Here are two plots that provide the Rockets Power Ranking as a function of games played for all three metrics. In addition, the correct strength of schedule is included. Our schedule is not the hardest but it is considered to be a tough schedule as it is above the dotted line. <table style="width:auto;"><tr><td><a href="http://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/i6-634udwtSqTG7RO02CzQ?feat=embedwebsite"><img src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/_8u4A05PwTfw/TRMyBluWYYI/AAAAAAAACQA/IWy-UF28ffU/s640/nba10_pr_rockets.jpg" height="480" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td style="font-family:arial,sans-serif; font-size:11px; text-align:right">From <a href="http://picasaweb.google.com/jsmee2000/PowerRankings?feat=embedwebsite">Power Rankings</a></td></tr></table> It is interesting to note, that all three of the measurement schemes (OE/DE, OE/DE/SOS, OE/DE/SOS/EXP) provide similar results. Very seldom there are huge discrepancies between the metrics (i.e., like games 4, 5, 18). That is because OE and DE are pretty robust measurements. We may not have Yao Ming for the rest of the season. But at least we can say that the 2nd best Christmas gift is that the Rockets are improving. I guess we can't complain about that... EDIT: I forgot to mention that the Rockets were ranked 20th in OE/DE with 13 games in and are now ranked 16. Alternatively, the Rockets were ranked 18th in OE/DE/SOS and are now ranked 15th.
I don't think it is improving in so much as rotation decisions. Ab out Kmart less minutes Budinger less minutes Lowry in Hayes more minutes Lee more minutes
Exactly. Defense wins championships. You need perimeter defense as it forces bad shots. All the great teams have balanced interior and exterior defense. Billups, Rondo, Christie, Fox, Ginobili, Prince, Perkins, Fisher, Smith, and Thorpe. All of these players play their roles perfectly by providing defense and offense when needed. What about the losses to Washington and Toronto?
awesome analysis--good to know what we see on court being backed up by solid analysis props to you, jsmee2000
I think as a whole they have gotten better. Their schedule has soften up for them to take advantage it. Since I can remember, Houston tends to play like crap against lottery teams and play great against good teams. This is a positive trend that I can see. IMO, we will get a better idea on how good this team really is come January. We play 14 games against playoff teams next month and only 3 games against lottery teams. If we have a winning record for the month of January, I think you can make the argument that this team didn't just benefit from a soft December. My outlook for the rest of the year is to see what Morey does during the trading deadline up to the NBA draft. I wouldn't be shocked if Morey waited till after the season to strike a great deal. I can see him dumping Jefferies before the deadline and that's it. We'll get a better idea once Melo gets traded IMO. From what I read from every NBA writer is we should see several trades happen before the deadline. Assets are the key.
What this says is that we are pretty much maxed out in terms of offense, the only teams with better offensive officiency are those teams with multiple all-stars, the kind that we can't get. However, we do have plenty of room to improve on defense. We need an elite big man and we can get into dallas/utah territory. Can't underestimate the acquisition of Tyson Chandler has done for Dallas's defense.
To be honest.... I didn't expect Dallas to be playing as great as they are right now. I thought for sure Chandler would be injuried by now. Dallas is playing great basketball right now and they're doing it with defense. Dirk is playing like a MVP candidate shooting over 50% from the field. You can also throw in San Antonio, who also has the best record in the NBA, as an elite team. The playoffs are going to be great this year IMO. We still need a solid center like you said. Hayes is great but he isn't the answer for this team.
The main difference is, we are closing out games against bad teams. We had plenty of chances to win in the month of November where on average we only lost by 4 pts. But that means we struggled to close out against the really good teams. End of January, I will be surprised if we are not back below .500 again. We play mainly against teams with winning records.
Undoubtedly one of the best "Where are we now" threads ever posted here on the forum. Props also for ze moving picturez! As far as the offensive/defensive improvements, I can definitely point out a couple of reasons: 1) Lowry's improved play -By far the biggest difference IMHO. Lowry was bothered by backspams and the extra weight he put on during the summer and basically just played like garbage. Now, his production on the court is certainly among the upper echelon of pgs in the league. 2) Battier's improved play -I think the 2nd most important factor was Battier's improved play. When the season started Battier couldn't even buy a bucket, and this combined with C-bud's horrible year cost us more than a few games. 3)More minutes for Jordan Hill -it looks like JH finally got out of RA's doghouse *looks at JH's 5 mins of PT* Or maybe I spoke too soon? Either way JH has definitely brought impoved play on both ends of the court when RA remembers he exists and/or isn't limited by foul trouble. Even the 5 mins of pt he had this game was way longer than the 5 mins he played the first three games of the season. 4) KM's been more clutch as of late -I don't know why but KM's been playing better during crunch time. My guess its due to the Lowry/Battier taking some of the scoring load off Martin's shoulders, giving him more time to save his strength. Either way he's definitely won as a couple of games.
To much DATA lol j/k Combination of a MUCH easier schedule, improved play from the PGuard position and also Battier contributing not only defensively but also offensively. The defense has also played just good enough to win some of these games.
There's a few factors that i think plays into the better play which isn't taken into account in the analysis (not a criticism by any means ) 1) Known/consistent rotation & 2) Healthy bodies Beginning of the year, the biggest problem was the Rockets' inability to be able to play Yao consistently and having to flip flop with the rotation. And another reason why the rotations were all jacked up were cuz of injuries. Brad Miller, Budinger, and Lowry didnt practice much in training camp (if at all). All 3 are key components to our rotation. Lowry was forced to come back before being 100% because Brooks went down - which again, caused Adelman to try to keep our heads above water. And like another poster mentioned - we only lost by an avg of 4ppg earlier in the season. Now with our chemistry building (sweeping the 3 game west coast trip), more continuity within our rotation, and healthy bodies, i can see us getting that much more efficient defensively and offensively. And making an avg of 10 3's per game in December helps as well
The Rockets as a team include 15 players. Overall, the data presented herein states that the Rockets have clearly improved. That is all that can be inferred from the data. The reasons why we improved in defensive and offensive efficiency could be many... The strength of schedule is included in the computations of the power rankings. If the schedule was so soft, then why is it that when the strength of schedule is included the Rockets move up. There are two reasons for this: 1) the surrounding teams have a weaker SOS, and 2) the Rockets SOS is not as bad as people think it is. Both scenarios are a factor! However, by gleaning at the data quickly, I would say more like 25%/75%. In a nutshell, the Rockets are better than what people perceive them to be only because they can't close in the last few minutes of 4th quarter.
Hmm...actually, not all "all-stars" are efficient in offensive end. I would not say that we are maxed out in offense and still think that there is a significant room for improvement given the offensive capabilities of the team. Conversely, we do have significant room to improve in the defensive end; however, our team is not well equipped in that area so I believe (personal opinion) that we are pretty close to hitting our defensive efficiency ceiling.
The analysis never intended to answer "The WHY?". The intention was to answer whether we are better or not. I let people have fun with the interpretation of why because there are many factors. I do not have data as to why and can only go by observation and some of my observations match what roslolian and others have been stating. What is important here is that we are improving and the rankings suggest that we are the 15th best team in the league. Which as the chart indicates...we are nothing more than pretenders at this point.
We are pretty much maxing out our potential on both offensive and defensive ends given the current roster. Looking at all the teams above us in the offensive efficiency rankings, they have all much better offensive talents except NY, they are another product of a great offensive SYSTEM. What I mean is that it is much easier to improve our defense via trade than it is to improve our offense via trade. Just by replacing Hayes with a good defensive C that can play 35 minutes a game will boost our defensive efficiency. Nene, Varejao, Gortat, etc... I don't see any realistic trades that will boost our offensive efficiency.
Great offensive system and an efficient offensive system are not the same. In one you score a lot of points in the other you score the points efficiently based on your possessions. So you can try to denigrate the Knicks system all you want but they are one of the most efficient offensive systems in the league. As far as your last statement, I would have to agree.
