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Has T-Mac declined? Examining 02-03 T-Mac from 07-08 T-Mac....

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Nitro1118, Dec 9, 2007.

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  1. Nitro1118

    Nitro1118 Member

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    Tracy McGrady 02-03

    [​IMG]


    VS.


    Tracy McGrady 06-07

    [​IMG]



    Introduction- Well, I have been a T-Mac fan since 01-02, when I first saw him play live vs. the Nets in January of 2002. Since then I have followed him virtually game by game, and largely became a Rockets fan because of him being traded to Houston. I have downloaded dozns of games from both his Orlando days and Houston days, on top of my memory of both games from Orlando and of course every game with Houston (thanks to mms links). In other words, I know the guy inside and out, which is why I am so appauled by people saying he is a shell of his former self, that he is a lot sofer, that he is not a superstar, giving a list of people they want him to be traded for, etc... So, over the summer, to show people he hasn't dropped off, I gave my friend a long message to post on here (I was not yet a member), detailing my thoughts. The topic title was "Let me clear some things up...", which some of you may remember. Anyway, since that did not seem to sink in, I have went heavy on the stats to show he is actually a BETTER player now than what he was in 02-03.



    Arguement- So, to analyze the player he was in 02-03 to the player he is now, we must look at the stats. And the best stats to really examine T-Mac as a player is 82games' playerfile stats from both years.

    http://82games.com/02ORL5A.HTM
    http://www.82games.com/0708/07HOU8A.HTM

    Let's examine the stats. First up is his scoring. Right off the bat 2 things stick out- T-Mac scored 7PPG more in 02-03, but took 3 more FGA per game than this year. Next thing to look at is his FG %...his FG % is only 1% lower than in 02-03, but EFG % is about 2% lower because his FT % is 7% lower than it was in 02-03. But, 2% overall in shooting % is NOT bad at all. Second thing to look at, which many people rip on T-Mac about, is his shot selection... whereas in 02-03 74% of his FGA were jumpshots and 26% were in close, he now is at 78% of FGA jumpshots and 22% close shots. That means he was taking 17.8 jumpers per game as opposed to 16.4 now...in other words, his shot selection is still very much the same. Now let's look at the percentages from those shots....whereas he shot over 47% EFG on jumpers in 02-03, he now shoot 45% EFG on jumpers. Interestingly enough, while he was more of an athlete in 02-03, he is shooting a better % on close shots now than he did in 02-03, with a .595% EFG as opposed to .587% EFG. Another interesting stat is 10% more of his FGM's are assisted this year as opposed to 02-03, with a possible explaination being Adelman using him in a lot of backdoor cuts and off of screens this season. Basically, the only thing signficantly separating T-Mac now from T-Mac of 02-03 is FT %.

    Now let's look at other facets of the game, where T-Mac has showed significant improvement in IMO. First up is his passing...he has been averaging career highs in APG the past 2 years, and his passer rating is now a 8.4 as opposed to a 6.8 back in 02-03....that is a big jump.

    Next up is his rebounding, which is down from his Orlando days. He had a 16.0 rebounding rating in 02-03 as opposed to 14.8 now. The only odd thing, however, is that his defensive rebounding % is actually better than in 02-03, but his offensive rebounding % is way down. Looking at his actual stats year by year, his defensive rebounding stats are identical from 02-03 to now, but he grabbed 1 extra RPG from the offensive glass. One possible reason could be the addition of Hayes, as well as Yao's improvements on the glass.

    Next up is his hands/ballhandling rating, where he has a 22.8 this year as opposed to 20.8 in 02-03.

    Next up, defense. At every single position (click by position) he is holding his offensive counterparts to lower numbers than in 02-03, especially at the SF position where he is holding player to 10% lower EFG %, which can be attributed to his added bulk/size since he has arrived in Houston.

    Last up, clutch play. He has been horrible in the clutch this year, but you also have to remember 82games' criterea for using the clutch stats, and he simply hasn't been in enough games fitting that criterea this season for me to use that stat. So, let's use 06-07 as an example. In 02-03, he scored 37.7PPG per 48min on 47% EFG as opposed 40.6PPG per 48min on 46% EFG last year. Ironically enough, whereas during the season he had better passing and worse rebounding numbers than the 02-03 T-Mac, both those numbers were reversed in the clutch for that respective year. Then you look at the hands/ballhandling rating, and T-Mac in 06-07 edged the 02-03 T-Mac by over 4.

    -------------------------------------

    Conclusion- Basically, T-Mac is virtually the same player scoring-wise as he was in 02-03 outside of his FT shooting. The only difference is that now he has a 7'6'' center to cater to. If he didn't have Yao, as you saw last year when Yao went down with injury, T-Mac could be a 30PPG on 45% shooting threat that he was in 02-03. In every other area outside of rebounding he is better than he was in 02-03, especially with his ballhandling, defense and passing where he is significantly better than he was in 02-03.

    Next statistical rant I go on I will be examining proposed T-Mac for Kobe trades and how he won't be as huge of an upgade as so many people percieve.
     
    #1 Nitro1118, Dec 9, 2007
  2. GATER

    GATER Member

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    The 2002-03 Rockets swept the Magic. End of discussion.
     
    #2 GATER, Dec 9, 2007
  3. WhoMikeJames

    WhoMikeJames Member

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    I don't know man... He just looks different. Its minimal though.

    <object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/UnWZ1T7Gk4s&rel=1"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/UnWZ1T7Gk4s&rel=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object>
     
    #3 WhoMikeJames, Dec 9, 2007
  4. Htown57

    Htown57 Member

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    /Well done. It's about time people realized t-mac isn't "done". He may be less athletic now, but his better ballhandling / passing ratings reflect a maturation of his game.

    I also like the fact that he hits more close shots now then he did when he was just dunking on everybody. The numbers don't lie--the "t-mac should dunk more" lobbu should hush.
     
    #4 Htown57, Dec 9, 2007
  5. Yaozer

    Yaozer Member

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    I noticed his shots had a higher arc then from the vid. His shots are way to flat for my liking nowadays. But as long as he makes them, it don't matta how he does it.
     
    #5 Yaozer, Dec 9, 2007
  6. NO NAME

    NO NAME Member

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    that's why he got back spasm
    Where CDTH happens...
     
    #6 NO NAME, Dec 9, 2007
  7. orbb

    orbb Member

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    I'd definitely like to see this one...
     
    #7 orbb, Dec 9, 2007
  8. bbjai

    bbjai Member

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    I would like to think his offensive rebounding has gone down as well since so many possessions go to Yao. He wouldn't be picking up as many offensive scraps as before. I think its ridiculous people think his washed up. They obviously haven't been watching the same games.
     
    #8 bbjai, Dec 9, 2007
  9. orbb

    orbb Member

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    grass always looks greener on the other side....just like how mike james was supposed to be the prolific scorer, heart and savior this team needed...until he got here ;)
     
    #9 orbb, Dec 9, 2007
  10. Chronz

    Chronz Member

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    eFG% is not affected in any way by FT%

    Tmac has always had questionable shot selection and aside from that one magical year has never been a terribly efficient scorer, what makes him a such a great offensive player is that he rarely turns the ball over and is an effective playmaker.

    Tmac used to be able to just jump over the top of you and get a quality look, its never a good sign when the player is scoring at the same efficiency despite being assisted on MORE of his attempts.

    But the fact that he has a higher inside% is negligible because he hardly gets inside compared to how he got there in 02-03, not to mention that because he attacked the rim often he got to the line often thus raising his TS%.

    No, simply no

    Hes always been an efficient passer, hes just doing more of it now. But yea hes been utilizing that skill more in Houston.

    Hes not as athletic anymore the drop in rebounding isnt too surprising, his rebounding has been in the 8.5-9.5 since 02-03, though he did have that one season where it bumped up to 10.3 his injury plagued year, but yea his rebounding is not a problem.


    His handles are great for someone his size but because of his back and declining quickness he doesnt keep his dribbles as low as he used to, his turnover rate has increased each year as a Rocket but thats mostly because he looks to pass so much more.

    Counterpart is irrelevant without knowing who the actual counterparts are. The arrival of Battier pretty much eliminates him from spending much time on offensive threats. He was a MUCH better team defender in Orlando and always braught his A game defensively come playoff time.

    Dig deeper into your next statistical analysis, Tmac is still a great player and definitely a keeper but when your talking statistics about Tmacs greatest year (one of the greatest individual seasons in NBA history) hes going to fall well short.
     
    #10 Chronz, Dec 9, 2007
  11. Storm Surge

    Storm Surge Rookie

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    the thing about McGrady is that open shots don't even matter, he could be wide open or has a man up in his face and the shots have the same chance of going in. His mechanics are not fluid enough that he can hit a set shot, it has to be in rhythm.
     
    #11 Storm Surge, Dec 9, 2007
  12. blackistan

    blackistan Member

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    I dont think hes necessarily on the decline but the fact that he depends too much on his jumpshot is a concern because he can be unstoppable if he takes it to the rack. I still think his back has him something to do with him not taking it to the basket as much as he used to because if he begins to do that again he will be unstoppable. He needs to stop being scared and finish around the basket and he will be dominant again.
     
    #12 blackistan, Dec 9, 2007
  13. London'sBurning

    London'sBurning Member

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    Looks like the same jumpshooter we see this season. Only in that one particular game he rarely missed. Still the same passive player that isn't looking to initiate contact. Only difference between a passive McGrady and one that's aggressive is more penetration in the paint and less settling for jumpshots. Especially when he can't make anything from the perimeter. At worst he forces the defense to collapse on him and creates open looks for his teammates.
     
    #13 London'sBurning, Dec 9, 2007
  14. Nitro1118

    Nitro1118 Member

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    Yeah I see that now. Didn't know that.


    I know he has always had a questionable shot selection. I don't think you are understanding the meaning of this thread...the point of this thread is to show that T-Mac is vortually the same player he was in 02-03 in terms of tendencies and style of play. Shot selection, %'s...his game has really not changed outside of becoming more of a passer and less of a scorer, and of course being less athletic than he once was (although he still has arguably the quickest first step in the league).


    He can still just jump over you and get a quality look...look at his 47pt game against one of the longest and most difficult defenders in the league in AK-47. He still has the same ability to rise over anyone.

    But as you see in the stats, he really did not attack the rim more often. He has always been a 7FTA player, all the way up until this year. The lone exception being in 02-03, where he took 9FTA, but he also took 24FGA as opposed to regularly around 21FGA. In other words, in 02-03 he took more jumpers than ever, more free throwas than ever and more inside shots than ever. But still, the % of FGM on inside shots are virtually the same then as they are now, which disproves people saying how he has turned into a chucker and how he never was like that in Orlando.

    He's always had great court vision, but he has gotten a lot better at running an offense and being a point guard/forward. I just was watching a game of his from the 01-02 season in which he dropped 50 on the Wizards (MJ did not play), and he was looking just like Carmelo in that when he was not scoring, he was just sort of off to the side not doing much. He made a beautiful pass and a few assists, but he was not very effective when they used him as the main facilitator of the offense...far more effective in Kobe-like scenarios where he is in an iso on the wing than makes nice pass from the drive. Nowadays he is much better at controlling the offense and the tempo of the game.


    He also doesn't play PF and a ton of SF like he did in his Orlando days when he was often over 7RPG. In fact, he actually was the guy they chose to take the jump ball in that Wizards game I was referring to.


    Yeah, I'd attribute that more to his increase in passing (and in past 2 years oftentimes force feeding Yao, who bobbles or totally misses the pass) than decline in ballhandling ability.


    Actually every year in Houston his defensive stats have been better than what they were in Orlando, 2 of those years being the best perimeter defender on the team. And he also always has brought his A game defensively come playoff time...in '05 he locked down Dirk, and last year he was terrific defensively in the playoffs (espexially with his shotblocking).

    And help defense does not equate to being a great defender. If it did, Dwyane Wade would be considered the best defender in the league. T-Mac has gotten a lot better at not making stupid fouls, not getting beat off the dribble easily, as well as not getting back down or muscled.


    I did dig deeper, with an actual opinion piece with little to no stats or anything, just an opinion I formed with my own 2 eyes (I went indepth about the style of play, tendencies, etc...). But with so many people bringing up this and that about T-Mac, I decided to use a lot of stats this time to prove my points. The main things I wanted to show were that he is taking virtually the same amount of jumpers as he did in his "prime", his FG % is among the best of his career, and overall he is as good/a better player than he has ever been. I used 02-03 because it was his best year statistically, but things like his FG% in "close", % of FGM being jumpers, among other things being very comparable to what he is doing now.
     
    #14 Nitro1118, Dec 9, 2007
  15. Nitro1118

    Nitro1118 Member

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    Did you read my post? He is taking it to the rim virtually as much as he used to, and finishing at a better %.
     
    #15 Nitro1118, Dec 9, 2007
  16. Shroopy2

    Shroopy2 Member

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    thats exactly how I've always described McGrady. he doesnt really have any hot spots or cold spots on the floor cuz he can shoot over the opponent. his shooting percentage gets a slight boost cuz of that. he's so good at it he doesnt need to refine the other scoring aspects of his game cuz well..he can always get a shot.

    if McGrady didnt have ability to shoot over an opponent he could almost be gameplanned against and neutralized. his athleticism is used in his jumpshooting and not shooting over the top from close-in like other players tend to do.

    McGrady "looked" different in that Orlando video physically and had a little more spring to his body. other than that its the same stuff we always see - McGrady shooting a bunch of jumpers except this time making them.
     
    #16 Shroopy2, Dec 9, 2007
  17. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    Based on those 82games stats, we can deduce his percentages on 2-point jump shots.

    If I did the calculations correct, this is how it breaks down (before the Toronto game):

    Code:
                    [B]T-MAC'S  JUMPERS[/B]
          [I]%2ptAtt    %3ptAtt      2pt%      3pt%[/I]
02/03      66.6%      33.4%       42.2%     38.6%
07/08      71.8%      28.2%       43.1%     34.9%
    He's taking more midrange jumpers compared to three pointers, and his efficiency on those shots are actually a little higher. But he was great behind the arc in 02/03, and somewhat below average since then.

    My conclusions is that he was a better and more confident three pointer shooter that year. And he was better at getting to the line and converting (nearly 80%, a career high).
     
    #17 durvasa, Dec 9, 2007
  18. topfive

    topfive CF OG

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    You rebut an entire point with the above, then have the testes to offer the following suggestion?

    :confused:
     
    #18 topfive, Dec 9, 2007
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2007
  19. Cook1ez

    Cook1ez Member

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    Now these are the kind of threads we need! Good,stat-filled,arguemented threads. Very, VERY interesting to read. I'd rather see these more than the negativity threads. So many points are made here.
    And also,I see that I'm not the only one who thinks every shot Tracy takes has the same chance of going in, contested or not(sadly), ofcourse I'd love the uncontested shots to go in(ex: Today's game against Toronto,I remember him having an open three, and the bench didn't really jump up or raise their hand, knowing this unfortunate asset too).

    I love to watch this guy play. And just as much as I love watching him play, I adore reading threads like these.
     
    #19 Cook1ez, Dec 9, 2007
  20. Ziggy

    Ziggy QUEEN ANON

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    Unless you statistically prove that Kobe's balls, consistency, and competitive spirit aren't vastly superior to McGrady. You lose.

    One guy shows up every night. Challenges his teammates and his opponent. And guards the opposition with like its game 7 of the finals and his last day to live on earth.
     
    #20 Ziggy, Dec 10, 2007
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