Nothing we don't already know, but it's a nice little summary and is (to me) saying "this sucks, but it really is the smart move". Which is nice to read in a national article, even if I already believed it wholeheartedly Quick excerpt below http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9273233/hoarding-prospects-being-horrible-houston-astros
That is a spectacular article, well written too. Wish i could make everybody making negative comments read this. The only question is Crane, if he is willing to keep the clubs payroll up where it belongs, signing free agents and keeping our guys, this franchise has positioned itself to be a juggernaut for years to come. The 14th highest payroll in MLB is 101 million, that's the range we should be in come 2016, no need to spend money now though.
As far as talent and maybe record, this might be the worse MLB team ever... Now with Altuve out and maybe Norris missing a start I expect the Astros to get some breathing room against the Marlins... Im predicting a 42-120 season now...
Nice. Thanks! Only bit I think may be off "There's no reason the Astros can't be competitive next year, at .500 by 2015, and then become legitimate contenders in the AL West in 2016 and beyond." Still, a little optimism isnt a bad thing around here at the moment.
Don't get your hopes up. The Astros have never gone past $100M. You don't go from $20M to $100M just like that in a relatively short time frame. And there's probably not a good way to do that without giving out stupid contracts. Crane's concerned about the bottom line, moreso than Drayton was. I don't see him spending more money than Drayton ever did coming on the heels of playing games in front of less than half full stadiums for a few years. He's going to want to build up slower than that. Make sure the fans will show back up and that he can still turn a profit with a higher payroll. Remember that he said that the Astros haven't been profitable in a while, and that was with $88-92M payrolls. He's not just going to throw down $100M without knowing he can still turn a profit. And the Astros probably aren't going to get good enough, fast enough for the fans to come back in full force, justifying a payroll that high by 2016.
AND, the fans won't likely come back as quickly as they normally would with the CSN nightmare and all the other negative PR stuff that is happening. I really hope i'm wrong in my next statement, but the more I see/hear from Crane the more I worry that he will never care about anything other than turning a profit. The baseball development side of things is going great right now, but if we develop those guys and move them at arbitration years to keep the payroll low, and never develop those guys who become lifetime Astros and franchise players we build around, it will simply be a yoyo with good and bad years, and that is if the baseball side continues to develop young talent. How long would Luhnow stick around if he acquires star level talent and crane won't let him keep it because "the fans haven't come back yet"???? Again, I hope i'm wrong, but other than acquiring great young talent there is nothing that has been done to say Crane will build a championship level organization
I don't think .500 next year is completely out of the question, although unlikely. It's all contingent upon the youngsters having some sort of impact, but assuming the following core, we couldn't definitely compete more often than not: 1B - Singleton 2B - Altuve SS - Villar 3B - Dominguez RF - Paredes CF - Springer LF - Martinez 1 or 2 C - Castro DH - Carter SP - Wojo, Cosart, Norris, ?
I don't think there's any way to really know until it comes to that point. We won't know how much Crane is really willing to spend for awhile. But I do fear the Astros becoming the Royals/Pirates of the last 20 years where whenever they have a young potential star through the farm system, they trade them away for prospects before they become free agents to keep payroll low. You can't really make that assumption yet, but you also can't assume they're going to go out and spend $100M+ the first chance they get. We'll just have to wait and see.
lets replace dominguez with bryant in this years draft and mccullers will be ready in 2 years so throw that in also. we just need to sign an ace to anchor the rotation then
I love this article for so many reasons. But most of all it finally maps out to everyone what the strategy (hopefully) has been all along. I am fine with sucking for awhile as long as they guarantee trying to win with the talent base they are building and dont turn into another Royals/Pirates.
On the flip-side, what "can't miss" prospects did the Royals/Pirates develop that went on to become superstars elsewhere? The Royals/Pirates problems are far more than simply having low payrolls at the MLB level. Despite having high picks every year, they really didn't draft all that well.. whether it was due to budget concerns, bad scouting, or simply bad luck. They've never really had an organizational philosophy of building something. They've been mixing young up and coming prospects with has-beens, and then when things don't work out, they blow it up. On the flip-side, you have the Rays, Marlins, Tigers, Nationals, Reds, Brewers and now more recently Orioles... teams that were struggling for awhile till the farm eventually became rich enough to turn the team around (in the Marlins case, it happened enough that when the team tried to spend the big $$$ and failed, they went back to this model asap). And then you have the Cardinals... a team that was able to do both (stockpile their farm, while having success at the MLB level) to the point that they're not going to have a losing season despite overhauling their core since their last World Series championship two years ago (I'm glad the Astros got the guy who had a big role in that model). In the end, there are far more examples of teams struggling for a stretch, rebuilding their farm, and then going on to have success... vs teams struggling forever (like the Royals/Pirates). The new rules with the draft make the struggling teams chances of striking out (or going cheap) in the draft much less due to the cap for all teams.
Winning will cure all with the fans, if this team becomes a perennial playoff team the fans will be there, regardless of how much they are complaining now, although if this CSN debacle isn't handled fairly soon it really could do irreparable damage. The cardinals are the model the Astros hopefully emulate. A consist flow of talent from the minors, supplemented with trades and free agents at the major league level. Assuming CSN is handled, the Astros will have the ability to maintain a top 10 payroll. But when the time comes will Crane spend the money or pocket it, thats the million dollar question that will determine how successful this franchise can be.
2009 Opening Day salaries per USA Today totaled nearly $103MM. Also, IIRC, 2006 salaries got over $106MM once Roger joined the party. I think they eclipsed $100MM at least one other time in the last ten years as well.
