The rockets were tied for eighth in scoring margin, ahead of a few west playoff teams. Scoring Margin is a great predictor for postseason success, if you can get there. All teams with a 3.4+ Scoring margin won a first round matchup or lost to a fellow 3.4+ team. Few teams can survive season to season by depending on close wins. I chose 3.4+ because that's how the rockets were playing at the end of the year. ------------------
What's our scoring margin vs. playoff teams in the Western Conference? If I beat you by 20 in one game and you beat me by 2, 5, and 9 in the other three games that we met, who won the battle and who won the war? Yes, but I'll take winning percentage over that any day. Hehe. Stats suck. ------------------ NBA Draft Lottery is May 20th. Start praying now.
I do like the margin stat as an indicater of a teams play. I have often used it in baseball, but not basketball. Its not supreme and all knowing, but it does give extra insight into a team and positivly has a direct correlation to a teams success. Stats are so fun, thats why I follow the market. For stat lovers wanting the mother of all stats info.....the best part is you make money. ------------------ "Chucky who? I thought we were talking about basketball?" Charles Barkley
Dr of Dunk, To get this straight, I would take a team that wins 15 one point postseason games anyday. Regular season wins don't matter unless you have enough of them to make the playoffs. Few teams win year after year by sneaking by, and the 1994-1995 rockets is the only team that I've ever seen (I'm 24) that didn't win big on average (Top 6 scoring margin) throughout the season and still win the NBA championship. Who would you rather be heading into next year-Minnesota, a young team that wins more games than their scoring margin would predict, or the rockets, a young team that wins less games than it should? Assume that the rockets only add a draft picks and only lose SA. Minnesota is the same team. I think that if the rockets learn to win a little bit better and have injury light year, they will win a lot more games (8-10 wins without additions). Minnesota knows how to win and thus has little room to improve. When I see them, they play as a team which leads me to believe they don't have enough talent unless Garnett or Szczerbiak gets much better. Even without the Joe Smith fiasco, I say the rockets would be in better shape for the future despite minnesota being the better team now. Scoring Margin is a good sign. ------------------
The Rockets problem isn't their scoring margin. It's they can't beat squat in the West with the players they fielded. Maybe with some consistency in the lineup they can win, and guess what? When you win, your scoring margin usually remains positive. As for who I'd rather be, I'd rather be the team that can win more games against the Western Conference. Scoring margin relies too heavily on poor correlations to actually winning games. Why? Because when your scoring margin is near that of playoff caliber teams, yet you aren't in the playoffs, it can indicate inconsistent scoring. We whupped up on the East. We got destroyed by the West. We can have a +50 scoring margin against the East, but it wouldn't have mattered - we can't get into the playoffs in the West. Find the standard deviation in scoring among Rockets and other teams throughout the season and then we can talk. Didn't Dan Quayle say that once? Oddly enough we agree. How did you arrive at +3.4? What do you consider "the end of the year"? I could take any portion of a year and make my own argument. The fact remains it's either the team that played well consistently throughout the year or at the end of the season and manages to get into the playoffs that wins. The Rockets were neither. I get what you're saying, but I think your correlation is a bit skewed. Your argument that few teams can win when they depend on close wins is correct. But you're trying to back that up with an average which is what scoring margin is. It goes back to what I said about I can beat you by a bunch in one game, but you can beat me by 5 or 10 in the other 3 games. You will have won the "scoring margin title", but I will have won... period. Also, when you say they were eighth are you counting just the West? From briefly looking I see them as 11th, but then I'm delirious with lack of sleep, so I'm probably wrong. ------------------ NBA Draft Lottery is May 20th. Start praying now. [This message has been edited by Dr of Dunk (edited May 08, 2001).]
I rounded the numbers and two or three teams were tied with the rockets that could easily be fractions higher. I looked at the last ten games and did an estimation. With Cat in the lineup the whole year, never a game with every center hurt, and a SF that makes a 3pt every other half will easily give the rockets the consistency to win three more games. ------------------
