Gemini AI prediction: Rockets without FVV.

I asked Google's AI, Gemini, to predict the the Rockets player stats this upcoming season.

It got it wrong and assumed FVV was healthy, so I added a prompt to recalculate based on his injury and also provide some analysis on the beneficiaries of the FVV.

I then followed up with a request to run a simulation and tell us how the Rockets did in the playoffs.

Here is Geminis prediction... And sorry for the bad formatting from Gemini.

...

The unfortunate season-ending injury to Fred VanVleet (ACL tear) dramatically alters the Houston Rockets' plan for the 2025-2026 season.
The immediate effect is a shift in the backcourt rotation and a significant increase in playmaking responsibilities for the team's young core and established stars.
Shift in Roles and Beneficiaries
| Category | Player(s) | Role Change / Benefit |
|---|---|---|
| Starting Point Guard | Amen Thompson | Projected to step into the primary starting role at point guard. This maximizes his on-ball duties and allows the team to leverage his elite athleticism, defense, and transition playmaking. |
| Primary Playmaker | Alperen Şengün | Assumes the primary playmaking role for the half-court offense. He will now fully embrace his role as the "offensive hub" and high-post creator (often called "Senhub"), with his assist numbers expected to rise significantly to lead the team. |
| Scoring & Secondary Playmaking | Kevin Durant | His usage rate and isolation opportunities will increase, resulting in a potential bump in scoring. He will also be relied upon for more secondary playmaking duties, especially in clutch situations. |
| Increased Minutes/Role | Reed Sheppard | Benefits from the vacancy by moving into a larger role in the guard rotation, likely as the first guard off the bench. His three-point shooting will be a crucial floor-spacing asset that the team needs without VanVleet. |
Houston Rockets: Revised 2025-2026 Projected Season Averages (Without Fred VanVleet)
With VanVleet's absence and the resulting role changes, particularly the expected jump in playmaking for Amen Thompson and Alperen Şengün, the projections are adjusted as follows:
| Player | Position | GP (Projected) | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant | SF/PF | 68 | 37.0 | 30.0 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 54.5% |
| Alperen Şengün | C | 75 | 35.0 | 23.0 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 58.0% |
| Amen Thompson | PG/SG | 72 | 33.0 | 17.0 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 53.5% |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | PF | 78 | 32.5 | 15.0 | 8.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 47.5% |
| Tari Eason | SF/PF | 70 | 26.0 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 49.0% |
| Reed Sheppard | SG | 75 | 24.0 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 44.0% |
| Clint Capela | C | 60 | 18.0 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 62.0% |
| Dorian Finney-Smith | SF/PF | 65 | 22.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 42.0% |
Note: Fred VanVleet is excluded from the revised table as he is out for the season.

.... After I prompted Gemini to simulate the season.

...

This is a fun simulation, as the Fred VanVleet injury dramatically changes the team's dynamics and expectations. While the addition of Kevin Durant was a massive boost, the loss of their veteran floor general and defensive leader creates uncertainty.
Here is a full simulation for the Houston Rockets' 2025-2026 season:
Houston Rockets 2025-2026 Season Simulation
Regular Season Record and Seed
The loss of Fred VanVleet's consistent playmaking, three-point shooting, and veteran stability is a major blow that the young core, particularly Amen Thompson, will take time to fully absorb. However, the addition of Kevin Durant and the expected breakout of Alperen Şengün as the primary offensive hub keep them in the top tier of the conference.
* Regular Season Record: 49 - 33
* Western Conference Seed: 4th Seed
Rationale: They will hover around a 50-win pace, but the lack of a true, proven point guard will cost them some close games early in the season. The overall talent and defensive structure are still strong enough to secure a home-court advantage in the first round.
Playoff Simulation: Round-by-Round Breakdown
The Rockets will face a tough road in the deep Western Conference. The playoffs will come down to how well Amen Thompson performs as a primary ball-handler under pressure and whether Alperen Şengün and Kevin Durant can consistently dominate the opposition's frontcourt.
1. Western Conference First Round
| Matchup | Seed | Team | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (4) Houston Rockets | vs. | (5) Los Angeles Clippers | Rockets win, 4-3 |
* Series Breakdown: This is a grueling, defensive battle of attrition. The Clippers, featuring the veteran leadership and defense of Paul George and a strong supporting cast, push the Rockets to the limit. The series is defined by hard-fought games where neither team cracks 110 points easily. The Clippers' veteran experience keeps them alive, but the Rockets' superior athleticism, frontcourt size with Şengün and Durant, and Amen Thompson's ability to create chaos in transition prove to be the difference-maker.
* Deciding Factor: Game 7 is held in Houston, where a massive performance from Kevin Durant (scoring 40+) and a key defensive stop by Amen Thompson on the final possession secures the series.
2. Western Conference Semifinals
| Matchup | Seed | Team | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (4) Houston Rockets | vs. | (1) Oklahoma City Thunder | Thunder win, 4-2 |
* Series Breakdown: This is the marquee matchup of the young West elite. The defending champion Thunder, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren, have a combination of veteran experience and young firepower that is difficult to overcome. The Thunder's elite backcourt defense and their deep roster rotation prove to be a problem. Houston's inexperience at the point guard spot (Amen Thompson) is exploited in the half-court sets, leading to critical turnovers in late-game situations.
* Deciding Factor: The Thunder are simply a more cohesive and refined unit at this stage. While Şengün and Durant put up historic numbers, Oklahoma City's overall team depth, superior outside shooting, and clutch playmaking from SGA are too much to overcome. The Houston Rockets are eliminated in the Conference Semifinals.
3. Western Conference Finals / NBA Finals
The Rockets do not advance beyond the second round in this simulation.

 

I thought I'd add Gemini's simulation WITH FVV on the team.

It had us make the NBA finals and lose to the Knicks.

...

This is the scenario where the Houston Rockets vault themselves into the elite tier of the Western Conference. With a healthy Fred VanVleet, the team has the perfect balance of veteran leadership, half-court execution, elite scoring, and young defensive athleticism.
Here is the simulation for the Houston Rockets' 2025-2026 season with Fred VanVleet Healthy:
Regular Season Record and Seed (With Healthy FVV)
Fred VanVleet provides exactly what a team built around Kevin Durant and Alperen Şengün needs: an elite floor general, a high-volume clutch shooter, and a tenacious perimeter defender. His presence stabilizes the offense and allows rising star Amen Thompson to be utilized as a dynamic bench spark plug and defensive utility knife, maximizing the team's depth.
* Regular Season Record: 53 - 29
* Western Conference Seed: 2nd Seed
Rationale: The team boasts a fearsome starting five: FVV, Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, Jabari Smith Jr., and Alperen Şengün. This lineup has a mix of playmaking (FVV, Şengün), elite scoring (Durant), shooting (FVV, Smith), and a massive defensive ceiling (Thompson, Durant, Smith). They win an additional 4 games over the injured simulation by maintaining better late-game composure and avoiding slumps due to the consistent leadership of VanVleet.
Playoff Simulation: Round-by-Round Breakdown (With Healthy FVV)
With the 2nd seed, the Rockets secure a more favorable path and hold home-court advantage through the Conference Semifinals. Their depth, defense, and half-court offense are now all optimized for a deep run.
1. Western Conference First Round
| Matchup | Seed | Team | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (2) Houston Rockets | vs. | (7) Dallas Mavericks | Rockets win, 4-1 |
* Series Breakdown: The Rockets' superior two-way talent is on full display. VanVleet's disciplined defense helps contain Kyrie Irving, while the combination of Amen Thompson and Tari Eason applies pressure to Luka Dončić. Dallas cannot stop the Durant/Şengün pick-and-roll, and their defense simply lacks the necessary firepower to match Houston's balanced attack. The Rockets take care of business quickly and efficiently, gaining valuable rest.
* Deciding Factor: Dallas's inability to win defensive possessions consistently against Durant and Şengün.
2. Western Conference Semifinals
| Matchup | Seed | Team | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (2) Houston Rockets | vs. | (3) Denver Nuggets | Rockets win, 4-2 |
* Series Breakdown: This is the heavyweight battle. The Rockets match up well against Denver's championship core. The key is Alperen Şengün's development; he holds his own against Nikola Jokić, largely offsetting the superstar's production with his own unique blend of scoring and playmaking. More importantly, Kevin Durant, Jabari Smith Jr., and Amen Thompson's length and defensive versatility stifle Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. VanVleet's ability to knock down clutch threes late in games, paired with Durant's unguardable isolation scoring, gives the Rockets the slight edge to pull away.
* Deciding Factor: Houston's superior wing defense and Durant's ability to be the best player in key moments, allowing the Rockets to snatch a pivotal road win and close the series at home.
3. Western Conference Finals
| Matchup | Seed | Team | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (2) Houston Rockets | vs. | (1) Oklahoma City Thunder | Rockets win, 4-3 |
* Series Breakdown: A phenomenal, seven-game classic for the conference championship. This series is a battle of contrasting styles: OKC's elite perimeter play and fast pace versus Houston's size, half-court execution, and veteran star power. Every game is a nail-biter. Houston's experience in the second round helps them here. The key difference from the first simulation is FVV's consistent scoring and game management, which prevents the young Thunder from overwhelming them in clutch time. The Rockets' overall rebounding edge with Şengün and Clint Capela/Steven Adams (off the bench) tilts the series in their favor.
* Deciding Factor: The series comes down to a Game 7 in Oklahoma City. The Rockets' veteran stars, Durant and VanVleet, deliver under immense pressure. Durant hits the series-clinching shot, and the Rockets advance to the NBA Finals for the first time in decades.
4. NBA Finals
| Matchup | Seed | Team | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (W2) Houston Rockets | vs. | (E1) New York Knicks | Knicks win, 4-2 |
* Series Breakdown: The Rockets' magical run ends against the top seed from the Eastern Conference, the New York Knicks (led by Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, and a suffocating defense). The Knicks are a defensively-minded, physical team that thrives on grinding out possessions and generating offensive rebounds. Their interior defense and depth of versatile wings (e.g., OG Anunoby, Josh Hart) frustrate Kevin Durant, limiting his overall efficiency. The physical toll of the seven-game war with OKC leaves the Rockets slightly depleted, and the Knicks capitalize by dominating the pace and winning the majority of the turnover battle.
* Deciding Factor: New York's elite, physical defense and rebounding on their home court. The Houston Rockets finish the season as the NBA Finals Runner-Up.

 

The most interesting thing to me are the playoff simulations.

Particular in the simulation where FVV is not injured, and had us going to the finals. It's interesting to see the commentary on how we beat OKC thanks to FVVs experience and superior rebounding of our bigs.