I like when the polls switch from one candidate leading to the next, because now will have the other side who was supporting the polls, downplay them as no significance and too early. That is why I kind of like this D&D, you guys give me the entertainment I need while working.........
Mmm... I checked Gallup's own site, which shows the latest post with McCain having a 3 point lead. Not saying you're wrong, but I can't connect to the link you provided. Perhaps RealClear's server is having a problem.
Probably referring to this poll and not the Gallup poll. http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-07-poll_N.htm In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/— 3 points for both samples.
Now the folks on the right can crucify me, but I still don't lend much credence to polls...except one. It's called an election.
I don't think you understand. Choosing the most extreme result in either direction is not particuarly useful, unless you wish to talk about statistical error and random noise. If he had just gone to the Gallup site and found that result, I'd understand. But on a page with 6 different polls, he picks out the most extreme in the direction of his choice, and ignores the 5 others. What would you think if I started a thread Obama Up By 6 Points In Poll with a link to that site? It would be just as silly. And btw, I dare you to find a single instance of me talking up poll results. In fact, I will drop $100 in the tip jar if you can find a single post where I have trumpeted poll results.
That has to be the one. I found it a moment ago. It would have been helpful if the OP had given us at least a bit of information about the numbers he was posting. The "RCP average" shows McCain with a lead of 1.2%. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
Meh, I'll worry when Obama is behind on the electoral map. (It is getting verrrry close on electoral maps though)
I don't even worry about those. I mean the disparity of electoral maps is just too large. I have seen some that have Obama winning the election and some with McCain ahead. The only thing that matters is what happens on November 4.
I don't see anywhere in my posts I was talking about you, I was talking in generalities. The point I was trying to make, but obviously failed, was that in my opinion - 1, polls are useless and 2, I believe hurt the process. The reason I say that, is first we want as many people voting as possible, and often we hear the excuse well my vote won't make a difference. Especially if you live in IL and want to vote for McCain, or Utah and want to vote for Obama - and so people stay home, right or wrong. Secondly, the candidates spend all of their time in these so-called swing states and don't campaign to everyone, all over the US. Heck, if you listen to their speeches I am starting to believe they only people who are having a tough time live in Scranton, PA, Dayton, OH, Lansing, MI.....I think you get the picture. Anyways, I will get off my soapbox, I just hate these polls and electoral maps - my opinion don't help the process, instead hurt it.
Honestly I don't either but its fun to post these types of things in the D&D to see the reaction from the other side who constantly put up similar threads when the polls are in their favor. For all the banter going in the D&D at least we are all taking an active role regardless of which side you lean towards.
Fact is Mccain is ahead, and statistically so. I think Obama is in real trouble here. And ya know, the better campaign will win, and the fact is that this new strategist for McCain is crushing Obama. You have to hand it to Steve Schmidt or whatever his name is. He knows how to win elections.
The only polls that are going to matter is on election night in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Colorado. Unfortunately Obama lost to Hillary during the primaries in almost all the battleground states. I never thought Obama was going to run over McCain. I think the odds are 50/50 right now, and will be decided on voter turnout.
