Maybe you think the playoffs begin a week from Saturday. In effect, they begin Saturday night in Houston. That's because the outcome of the Rockets' Saturday night game against the Denver Nuggets likely will determine which of those two has to face San Antonio in the first round of the playoffs. Talk about your playoff intensity. Here's the plain-and-simple truth about the West's first-round matchups: Since Sacramento has the playoff tie-breaker over Denver, but not Houston, a Rockets win tomorrow night most likely will mean a No. 5 seed for Houston in the first round, with Denver relegated to that No. 7 seed and a first-round matchup against the Spurs. But if Denver wins Saturday, the Nuggets will have the head-to-head tie-breaker against Houston, meaning they most likely would slip into the No. 6 seed by the time the regular season ends on Wednesday. Before Wednesday night, when the Spurs managed their second loss of the season at the Delta Center (because no Spur seems to want to block out Mehmet Okur when the game is on the line), San Antonio still had a real shot at wresting No. 1 seed away from the Suns, thanks to a 2-1 edge in head-to-head games. Now, it would take a real collapse by the Suns in their final four games, three of which are at America West Arena, for the Spurs to enter the playoffs as the No. 1 seed. That's not apt to happen. And since we no longer have to speculate about when, and if, Tim Duncan will return from his grade 2 sprain of the right ankle, the Spurs will go into the playoffs favored to come out of the West. Duncan is back, and his 20 minutes against the Jazz on Wednesday were so impressive — 17 points on 6-for-7 shooting, plus seven rebounds and one blocked shot — that the Spurs seemed nearly giddy afterwards, despite their loss. And in the 12 games they played without Duncan — the Spurs went 8-4, though it's more accurate to say they went 8-5, since Duncan sprained the ankle in the first two minutes of a March 20 loss at Detroit — they learned to succeed without him, which might make them even more formidable in the playoffs. Which brings us back to Saturday's Nuggets-Rockets matchup. The Nuggets have the league's best record since the All-Star break, 23-2 going into their Friday night home game against the Grizzlies. But when you can get a member of their basketball operations staff to give you an honest answer, they admit they feel confident going up against any team in the first round but the Spurs. Carmelo Anthony, who would have been an All-Star had he played for Jeff Bzdelik and Michael Cooper like he has for George Karl, put it best after the Nuggets blew out the Hornets, leaving Memphis, Houston, Phoenix and Portland on the schedule: "From here on out, these are all playoff games," Anthony said. The Rockets were 2-2 against the Spurs and present San Antonio some tough matchups, but they want no part of them in the first round, either. Besides, if the Rockets ended up with sixth seed, they might even get homecourt advantage over the Sonics, provided the Sonics finally win one game to lock up the Northwest Division title and the third seed. http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/3543060
A lot riding on the outcome of the Denver game Saturday. I know the Rockets are gonna take it to the Nuggets.
I'd almost rather face the Spurs than the Mavs. At least against the Spurs Yao and Tmac are matchup problems. The Mavs have Dampier and Nowitzki to at least offset our guys. We need to do whatever it takes (win or lose) to get that 6th seed.
if the rockets beat denver would they then purposely (sit yao and tracy out) the last two games to ensure a finish in the 6th slot?
I think it's going to come down to this: If the Rockets win Saturday, they'll face Dallas. If they lose, then the last game of the season will mean having to beat Seattle in order to face them in the first round.
NO WAY. San Antonio is battle tested. This group of Mavericks has never been in the playoffs together.
I've been looking at the remaining schedules and that's what it looks like, this is what will probably happen. Sacramento wins 3 of their last four. Wins against the Lakers, Jazz, and Suns the second time they play them at home. Kings finish 51-31. The Nuggets win 2 of their last four. Wins against the Grizzlies and Trail Blazers, maybe against the Suns too depending on their best record in the league status. Nuggets finish at 49-33, maybe 50-32. Rockets win their remaining games and finish at 51-31. Rockets hold the tie breaker against the Kings and finish 5th, play at Dallas to start the playoffs. Kings finish 6th and play at Seattle. Nuggets finish 7th and play at San Antonio. Or, like lost_elephant suggested, they might sit T-Mac or Yao the final two games, maybe they miss the games with mysterious injuries or something. Whatever might happen after the Nuggets game still doesn't change the fact that this game is the most important game of the season. The playoffs do start and might even end on Saturday night depending on the outcome and where the Rockets want to finish in the playoff standings.
While I'd obviously prefer we drew the Sonics, these are three incredible matchups. Probably the most competitive, all around, of any of the 5-6-7 seed possibilities and would make for some entertaining first round games. And, by the way, there is ZERO chance JVG will sit his guys to tank the last games. He's much more interested in using every remaining game to get the team ready for the playoffs.
Come on let's not go overboard. The Spurs would no doubt be a tough matchup. They're battle tested and have a legit MVP. But if any team can beat the Spurs in a 7 game series, it's the Rockets (and Miami). JVG and Pop will undoubtedly force the tempo into a low-scoring, scratch and claw dogfight. The Spurs have shown an inability to contain T-mac to any large extent, and who knows if Duncan is truly 100%. And as impressive as the Spurs' title runs in the past few years, they have been known to fold in the playoffs when another team pushes back (granted it takes a team the caliber of the Shaq/Kobe Lakers, but still). Now ideally, I'd like the Rockets to face an easier first round opponent in order to gain some confidence. But win or lose, the Rocket's playoff lives do not hinge on this game on saturday. Is the game important? Yes, definitely. But absolutely critical? I say no.
Nice article, and I agree with it. No one wants San Antonio in the first round, and though I've never completely feared Dallas I think this year they just might beat somebody they're not supposed to. I don't know, I think Seattle affords us the best chance of getting out of the first round, but I also think if this team is going to do anything special we're probably better off playing someone we're not supposed to beat. I know some here measure progress linearly - better record, advancing to the second round - but this team has holes, isn't terribly athletic, and old. So this year's run probably won't tell us much. If we hit open shots we can beat anyone. If we don't we could get swept by anyone. But I am sure of this: I really would like to see SA and Denver in the first round - that would be a helluva five game series. But I'll always hate George Karl.
Yeah, hopefully the players aren't thinking about match ups and will be focussed on winning out no matter the playoff seed. Van Gundy did say that they were talking playoff matchups a few weeks ago before they had even clinched a playoff spot, maybe he got them to stop that nonsense. m_cable, the Spurs are scared of the Rockets. Scared of T-Mac, scared of Yao, scared of Van Gundy, scared of losing in the playoffs yet again as the favorite to win it all. Don't they do that every year? I meant to say the playoffs might start and end with the Nuggets game until the real playoffs begin. I think the only team the Rockets would have to play a perfect series to upset would be the Mavericks, they're LOADED, everyone else the Rockets are capable of upsetting. That being said, nobody should think of the Rockets as favorites, they will be the underdogs no matter who they play. They do have a good chance to upset someone, and should give anyone a hell of series, but I don't think anyone should be disappointed if they don't advance.
The Rockets have the best chance to beat the Spurs, but no one said it would be pretty. If a team like Denver takes the Spurs to 6 or 7 games, that could wear Duncan down for the next round. Though the same applies to us with our veteran squad.
Screw the Spurs. Screw 'em all. Let's stop worrying about who the Rockets face. Let them worry about us. We're coming. Let's kick ass.
Great thread (and thread name). If the Rox lose to Denver, both Denver and Sacramento are probably out of reach, so it's the Spurs if we lose, the Mavs if we win. The only way we get 6th if we beat Denver is finishing a game behind Sacramento. We cannot tie them because we win a two-way tiebreaker. I've beat this drum to death, but we should ease up on the talk of facing Seattle when it is so unlikely. We have a chance to choose our playoff opponent tomorrow, and we should choose the Mavs instead of the Spurs. I don't care if the Spurs are "scared" of us; it doesn't mean we would beat them. Remember 1994-95? Olajuwon sat out a bunch of games near the end of the year because of an ailment, but he came back in time to get sharp for the playoffs. I still believe to this day the reason he toasted David Robinson so bad in the WCFs was because he had fresh legs. I think Duncan will have fresher legs later in the playoffs and he could be a man among boys in the WCFs and NBA Finals. He's the last one on their team that will tire.
