Reader beware: this is a long post. Since the unofficial assembly of the Lakers' fab 4, people have been going crazy, beating up the Rox brass for not making similar moves. I'm here to say that the Rox would be crazy to make those moves at the expense of their (um, I mean my) four year plan. Courtesy of Patricia's website, this is the core of our team: Player Age Signed Through Contract Yao Ming 21 2005-2006 $18MM over 4 years Steve Francis 26 2008-2009 $85MM over 6 years James Posey 26 likely 2008-2009 something reasonable? Eddie Griffin 21 2004-2005 $9.4MM over 4 years Kelvin Cato 29 2005-2006 $42MM over 6 years Maurice Taylor 27 2006-2007 $48.75MM over 6 years Boki Nachbar 23 2005-2006 $6.5MM over 4 years What is striking is that we have size, scoring ability and an interior defensive presence. What we lack is a heady leader on the floor. These parts will either be moved or are not relevant. Cuttino Mobley 27 2004-2005 $31MM over 6 years Juaq Hawkins 30 FA Moochie Norris 30 2006-2007 $22.7MM over 6 years Glen Rice 90 2003-2004 $36MM over 4 years Our (my) four year plan should be/is: Year 1 (2003-2004): Secure the 7 or 8 seed; Lakers or Spurs beat the crap out of us, and everyone else in the league. Under JVG, we play solid basic defense. Team offense shifting from perimeter to Yao. Francis and Yao developing chemistry. Offseason: Griffin's contract is up after 2004-2005 season. Rox should know whether to deal or keep him by the end of this year. Year 2 (2004-2005): Move up to the 5-7 seed; who knows where KG will be; Portland is cutting costs and has gone with a youth movement featuring Zach Randolph and Bonzi Wells. Still, Lakers, Spurs, Sac and Dallas are too good and experienced. 1st round exit, but win some games and gain valuable experience. Lakers and Spurs still dominating the league. Under JVG, players know the defensive scheme. Yao is 23-24, stronger, used to the league, more aggressive, solidifies his place as the 2nd best center in the league. Francis having some difficulty yielding to Yao's dominating presence, but at age 27-28, is playing more efficiently. We should have a good idea of whether Nachbar is a starting caliber SF in the Association. Offseason: Yao re-signed to a max deal. Cato kept through 2005-2006 as the Rox hope to push deeper into the playoffs. Year 3 (2005-2006): Tide starts to turn. Lakers getting older, sitting fat on multiple championships. Spurs may have over extended, trying to compete with the Lakers. Kings are on the downside of their window, with Webber getting older and Divac involuntarily flopping and yelling, "help, I've fallen and I can't get up." T'wolves have either maxed out their run with KG or have rebuilt. Dallas is still fun to watch, but has no interior threat to compete in the playoffs. With a dominant Yao (24-25 years old) and a Francis entering his prime (age 28-29) Rockets secure 5 seed, and knock off the Kings or Dallas to advance to the 2nd round. Rox gamely battle the Lakers or Spurs, and take 2 games, but cannot overcome the experience differential. Lakers/Spurs have their final clash of the titans in the WCF, before coasting to the trophy. Offseason: Decisions to be made on Cato and Nachbar. 32 year old Cato is too much a gamble b/c of his prior history of laziness, so we let him go. By now, Yao has hit his stride and we have developed younger backup (maybe Bad Man) to take Cato's place in the rotation. Boki is re-signed at the $5MM per year range because his offense is the yin to the yang that is Posey's defense. Year 4 (2006-2007): Lakers and Spurs are still the teams to beat. Shaq, Malone and Payton are fading fast, but still effective enough to contend. Rockets take the 4th seed and home court advantage. Rox beat Sacramento (Dallas still has Nowitski entering his prime) in round 1, and beat the aging Lakers in 7 in Round 2. Still no answer for Duncan, as the Spurs advance to the Finals and regain the title for the first time since 2002-2003. Yao is 25-26 and becoming unstoppable. Francis is solidly in his prime at 29-30, beginning to use his brain as much as his mad hops. Francis may be mature enough to go back to the PG position, freeing up our abililty to sign a strong defensive SG. Year 5-7: With Yao entering his prime and Francis still in his prime, the Rockets are on the short list of true contenders for the NBA title. NOW, back to this offseason. First, the Lakers' fade will coincide with our rise to power. So, who cares what they are doing. We must make the right roster moves to make years 1-4 happen. Without those playoff successes/failures, we will never make it to the short list of title contenders. Second, while we can't just stand pat, our current position is pretty damn good. I'd take our roster over every team, save the Lakers and Spurs. I used to think that we needed a legit PF more than anything. I now think that the key to our success is signing or trading for a point guard or point forward that can be the extension of the coach and implement the offensive scheme. Our roster is fairly strong. We just need it to perform to its capabilities. Unless we can acquire Andre Miller or Lamar Odom, we should acquire a starting PG that can perform at a starter level for about 4 years. After that term, that guard should be kept and moved to the bench for veteran leadership and continuity. The age should not be a big factor b/c the guard will not be a player that relies on athleticism.
Thats fine and dandy, but what about the other teams? In 4 yrs Duncan will be 30 or 31 and still in his prime , while Kobe,Dirk and a few other really good players will be 28 or so. I think we need to start getting rid of those bad contracts now. I think trying to trade Norris and Cato for Foyle and Sura is a start. That would be 2 contracts and 10m off the books next season to go along with 9m from Rice. After another season of auditioning, maybe someone will take a flyer on Taylor and his 8m. His 8m and Cats 5m might can be coupled for a max type of 1yr player to knock another 13m off the books. Now that we have got rid of the dead weight, we can surround Ming and Francis with the type of players that will make this a team.At least now, you have some wiggle room to actually try to get players instead of being cap strapped with underacheivers. Destroy and rebuild is the motto.
why would goldenstate want to trade Foyle and Sura if their contracts are coming off the books. It doesn't make any sense for them to take on the bad contracts of the rockets.
With Foyle and Dampier both in the last yr of their contracts, maybe they want a servicable center and a pg? I'm just saying.
You've got the right idea, but the wrong trade. Foyle is Golden State's best trading chip and they're more inclined to trade for cap room in a last-ditch effort to keep Arenas. They need a point guard, sure, but Norris and Cato don't add up to Foyle alone, a player who has drawn a lot of interest from Eastern teams and of whom the general consensus is that he would be a top center in that conference. He may get traded, but it's not going to be for horrible contracts like Cato's and Norris'. There are only a few teams that take on contracts like Cato's, Norris', and Taylor's unless they are in their final season: Dallas, New York, and Portland are the three prime examples. Most teams manage the cap effectively and are trying to trade their own problem contracts. If you look for deals with one of those three teams for slightly less than player worth (not slightly more, as in the above case), you might have something. Plus, by the time you have completed all of the wheeling and dealing, Ming's extension (I'll assume max) is on the way, while you still have Posey around at $5m+/yr, Boki at $1.5m/yr, and the remainder of the players on the team. At that point, you don't have that much wiggle room but to get one or two players, and probably not a max one at that. It's a real precarious contract situation the Rockets are in for the future, and they need to act quickly if they are going to act at all. That's what most don't realize - there may be no moves by the Rockets this offseason, and even very few next offseason. The new staff may have new schemes designed to get the most out of the players, or they may have different views entirely from what the majority here have. Only time will tell.
they could do better in free agency. Cato is no better than a backup and moochie is a joke. Something like that just doesn't make sense for them to do but who knows, Gary St. Jean is the GM. The Lakers have 3 good years left as an elite contender. Karl Malone would be 41 or 42 years old, just a shadow of his former self. Gary Payton at age 38 would still be a decent player but not dominate. Shaq would be on the decline mixed in with his injuries. Kobe of course would put up MVP numbers. This would still be a playoff team but they wouldn't get far. San Antonio missed out on every free agent they have been interested in. O'Neal, Kidd, Brown. I see them being an elite team but 3 years down the road with Yao in his prime they can be beaten. Sacramento's hopes of a championship are starting to slowly die due to age and their financial situation. They are a contender now but won't be a serious one later on. Dallas will probably be the best team in the midwest 3 or 4 years from now with the rockets and spurs at a close 2nd. Dirk, Nash, Finley all will still be playing in their prime. Phoenix will be a very good team. They've got 1 of the better PG's (Marbury), a great SF (Marion) and a very good PF (Amare). They will be a contender for years to come. Minnesota, Goldenstate, Supersonics will fit somewhere from 5 to 8 in the west.
I agree that the Rockets shouldn't try to rush to contend. However, they really need to hope that Griffin develops. With Yao and Steve (or what Steve can fetch in a trade if he can't play with Yao) I really think they can be contenders in the third year. Shaq will have slowed by then and Yao will have (hopefully) bulked up and gotten stronger. We all forget that Yao could be the outside shooter to stretch the D and allow Francis to penetrate. In international play Yao knocks down a lot of 3s and all the scouting reports I have seen say that Yao has unlimited range. I think with more experience he will feel comfortable shooting a few a game. Yao's outside game is what will make him pass Shaq as the dominant center sooner than expected.
To all, There is no way we "destroy and rebuild." Our cap issues and bad contracts exist, but the clear edict is that we are to win now. That means JVG and Co are to take this league of extraordinary underachievers (they are in Alexander's mind), and as MFClark says, come up with new schemes to get the max out of the players. These new schemes likely include the addition of some role players and the trade of Mobley. But "blowing up" the team will never, never happen. In three years . . . The Lakers are at the end of their championship caliber shelf life. Shaq will be fat and happy, Malone and GP will be heading toward the sunset. Kobe will be all world, but alone, he can't get a ring. He may be willing to try, after all, what's left for him to do? Duncan will still be a MVP caliber player, but Yao and Francis should be able to put up a consistent solid fight. If they haven't developed sufficiently to do that, then we picked the wrong horses to ride and the plan is trash. Dallas will only be fun to watch. After 3 years of not getting any further than they did this year, Dallas is at a loss and may shake things up (if not before 3 years). Nowitski is a jewel, no doubt, but it takes an interior presence to be a winner. Dallas doesn't have one and will be hard pressed to get one. Sac will have faded and will be passed by the Rox and Suns. Like Yao and the Rox, the Suns go as far as Amare develops. He presents a Kemp like presence that could take them to the finals one day.
So i guess when Shaq does retire, the lakers will just let that 30m in cap room go to waste. I guess 3 yrs from now, no one will want to play in Hollywood? I know what you're saying, but in modern nba, when has the lakers not been a good team? When have they as a orgaiztion not do what it takes to get good players around other good players? Shaq may retire in 3 yrs, but don't think La doesn have a contingency plan of some sorts.
Between the Magic and Shaq era's they were pretty bad. Granted that was only a few years. Of course if we return to the play-offs and eventually become title contenders with this core group the same thing can be said for the Rockets between the Dream and Yao Ming eras.
I don't think Shaq, Malone and Payton will even be around in 3 years. Shaq's said many times that he plans to retire soon (due to his constant foot injuries) and Malone will probably ship out after this year (not sure when Payton plans on hanging it up) so the Lakers should be out of contention for a while..... unless Kobe can do somethingby himself.
no one knows what will happen when shaq retires. Will there be a player out that can replace him? probably not... that's not an easy task. Most if not all of the big time players will be locked up to multi year contracts. McGrady Iverson J. O'Neal Yao Duncan Lebron Garnett and the list could go on. The lakers will have to high of a draft pick to actually get a superstar so it may be the Kobe show for a few years. It will be like the Magic of now.
It's simple when Shaq retires, Phil Jackson will be on his way out and they will hire Rudy T and they will offer Yao Ming the MAX and Yao will want to go play with Kobe and back with RUDY(the guy who brought him to the nba) it's sad but i see this happening. Remember when Orlando was the team of the future! a la Houston
Orlando, heck. Remember when Houston was the team of the future (1986)? Sometimes things simply don't work out. As to RT, if he wants it, the Los Angeles position is definitely a possibility when Jackson leaves. Similarly, Detroit post-LB (which should be any year now...) is also a spot I could see RT heading to.
lee- If this CBA stays intact, then no, LA won't be able to just replace Shaq. The Shaq to LA situation was a unique one. Orlando was seriously screwed by the previous CBA. The previous CBA ended restricted free agency- and all deals that called or restricted free agency were changed to unrestricted. Shaq was supposed to be restricted, but ended up unrestricted, and therefore able to go to LA without anythng Orlando could do to stop him. This is why Yao will be a Rocket for the first 10 years of his career (barring trade which is doubtful) at a very minimum. All of the sure thing max players coming off rookie contracts, like Yao, like a guy like Amare, etc will be retained. Even the Clippers seem to be willing to pony up for Brand. What that means, these 23 year old studs coming off their rookie deals won't be able to switch teams like a T-Mac and just bolt to LA. Best case scenario for LA would be a guy like Kidd-a player who already signed one big dollar deal and is already around 30.
I don't see Phoenix or Minnesota anywhere in this scenario. Garnett isn't going away. Marbury is better than Francis and close to the same age. Stoudemire, Rookie of the Year. Marion, close to 20-10. Dallas is being written off way too easily. It's not like they're down there with the Rockets trying to work their way up. They're a young team, and they're ALREADY a 60-win team. It's not that hard to add a player here and there. LA after Shaq is also being written off. If Ming never becomes as good as Bryant, LA is still ahead of Houston for as long as Bryant is around. Again, not hard to add bit players. Same with Duncan and the Spurs.
Freak, Please keep in mind I'm talking about year 3 and 4 of the plan. In years one and two, the Rox won't scare the elite teams. I think Garnett is destined to be a great player with no ring, unless it's in the twilight of his career. Minny still has yet to get out of round one, and despite the addition of Cassell, I don't see them making it this year. Garnett is a serious flight risk. I see him landing in the East. In any event, Garnett staying with Minny = Minny staying exactly where it is. If Yao and Francis develop, the Rox will overtake Minny. Dallas is Minny, but at a higher level. In the next 2 years, Dallas won't go anywhere. Consistent 2nd round exit. Dallas is still a team without any interior presence. Again, if Yao and Steve develop, I don't see Dallas being better than the Rox in year 3. Our defensive scheme under JVG should be able to handle Dallas' perimter attack. Phoenix - I go back and forth on them. Marbury just does not strike me as a winner, but he is talented, no question. If he and Stoudamire develop, I see them as a Payton/Kemp type inside/outside threat. The problem with that combo is that great PF's generally lose to great centers. Duncan is the exception, but he's as big as a center. Mailman, Barkley, Kemp - always had trouble down the stretch when Hakeem would provide weak side help or play them straight up. Yao's no Hakeem, but I think the same principles apply. I can see Phoenix mirroring our development and passing the Minny/Portlands of the West. They go as far as Stoudamire develops an interior game. His brute force is impressive, but he needs a go to move for crunch time. Time will tell. Lakers - I disagree about Kobe. Kobe without shaq is not good enough to hold off the top teams. In years 1 and 2, Kobe might be good enough to beat the Rox single handedly, but if we develop as a team, I expect that a Shaqless Laker team would fall to Yao and Francis. I suspect/hope that Kobe will abandon teh Lakers after next year, and hook on with Memphis or some other team to prove he is good enough to be The Man.
That's just a summary....nothing new...nothing that interesting. But thanks for your time. Cato won't be making 7 million a year after that. We could resign him for the minimum if he wants to stay. I guess fans need to have patience! Within four years....ROCKETS will win!
Decent post up until this point. Malone will retire after the Lakers win a ring this year most likely. Payton will be 38 and pushing retirement come 06-07, and Shaq although still dominant, will be on a slight decline at 35 and has hinted before that he is close to retirement. I would expect the Lakers to be a 6 seed or worse in 06-07 with the team rebuilding around Kobe. Dont think they will be contenders.... most likely 2nd round fodder.
