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[FiveThirtyEight] No Matter How Much They Make, The Best Players In The NBA Are Vastly Underpaid (Ro

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by RedEyesKirby, Jul 17, 2015.

  1. RedEyesKirby

    RedEyesKirby Member

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    Ok looong title. Long story short, here's the article http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/kawhi-leonard-like-all-the-best-nba-players-is-vastly-underpaid/

    Because of the new cap, everything is kind of confusing especially when trying to comprehend values of any contracts. In the article, it shows the following 2015 Free Agent players who are underpaid/overpaid. For Rocket players,

    PLAYER / NEW TEAM / YRS / DOLLARS (M) / PROJECTED WAR / DOLLAR VALUE (M) / UNDERPAID - OVERPAID (M)
    P. Beverley / HOU / 4 / $25 / 7.7 / $34 / -$9
    C. Brewer / HOU / 3 / $24 / 2.3 / $13 / $11

    So according to the article we are underpaying Bev 9 mil which is a great deal for the team. While overpaying Brewer by 11 mil.

    For comparisons, below are all underpaid players in this free agency
    K. Leonard SAS 5 $90 54.6 $224 -$134
    J. Butler CHI 5 $90 38.7 $159 -$69
    L. James CLE 2 $47 28.1 $104 -$57
    D. Jordan LAC 4 $88 33.8 $139 -$51
    K. Love CLE 5 $110 37.0 $153 -$43
    D. Green GSW 5 $85 28.9 $121 -$36
    B. Wright MEM 3 $18 11.9 $49 -$31
    G. Monroe MIL 3 $50 19.7 $80 -$30
    D. Green SAS 4 $45 17.7 $74 -$29
    T. Duncan SAS 2 $11 9.9 $38 -$27
    T. Chandler PHO 4 $52 18.5 $77 -$25
    K. Middleton MIL 5 $70 22.2 $94 -$24
    A. Aminu POR 4 $30 11.9 $52 -$22
    C. Joseph TOR 4 $30 11.1 $48 -$18
    E. Davis POR 3 $20 8.9 $38 -$18
    B. Biyombo TOR 2 $6 5.1 $21 -$15
    J. Lin CHO 2 $4 4.5 $19 -$15
    R. Lopez NYK 4 $54 15.7 $67 -$13
    K. O'Quinn NYK 4 $16 5.9 $27 -$11
    D. West SAS 1 $1 3.2 $12 -$11
    L. Williams LAL 3 $21 7.2 $32 -$11
    P. Beverley HOU 4 $25 7.7 $34 -$9
    A. Johnson BOS 2 $24 8.1 $32 -$8
    L. Allen IND 3 $12 4.2 $19 -$7
    B. Knight PHO 5 $70 17.7 $77 -$7
    P. Millsap ATL 3 $59 16.0 $65 -$6
    A. Ajinca NOP 4 $20 5.3 $25 -$5
    M. Ginobili SAS 2 $6 2.2 $11 -$5
    J. Crowder BOS 5 $35 8.5 $39 -$4
    B. Bass LAL 2 $6 2.1 $10 -$4
    A. Stoudemire MIA 1 $1 1.3 $6 -$4
    T. Robinson BRK 2 $3 1.4 $7 -$4
    P. Pierce LAC 3 $10 2.6 $14 -$4
    J. Holiday ATL 2 $2 1.0 $6 -$4
    T. Harris ORL 4 $64 15.9 $67 -$3
    B. Lopez BRK 3 $60 15.3 $63 -$3
    S. Larkin BRK 2 $3 1.0 $6 -$3
    M. Dunleavy CHI 3 $14 3.4 $17 -$3
    G. Green MIA 1 $1 0.7 $4 -$2
    L. Scola TOR 1 $3 1.0 $5 -$2
    O. Casspi SAC 2 $6 1.5 $8 -$2
    J. Jerebko BOS 2 $10 2.5 $11 -$1
    C. Watson ORL 3 $15 3.1 $16 -$1
    A. Brooks CHI 1 $2 0.4 $3 -$1

    It's kind of interesting because I'm sure Morey have thought about both the value of Beverley and Brewer. Per eye test, I'd say Brewer is worth more than Beverley, but seems like the stats used in the article states otherwise. Regardless I think most of us already agree that we got a great deal retaining Beverley. The question here is did we screw up on Brewer?

    Lock if already posted.
     
  2. Captain Hook

    Captain Hook Member

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    Look at Harden...leagues best SG, and 6th highest paid at his position.
     
  3. OpenLayup-Why3?

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    So you say guys who took biggest available contract are still underpaid?
     
  4. THE_TRUTH_HURTS

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    It's true. This is a star driven league. A star player can change the outlook on your team. Look at Lebron. Whatever he is paid, it isn't enough. He can literally make your team a contender by himself.
     
  5. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Article only takes into account open market value which is the purpose of Carmelo; however, NBA values are much different than baseball. Brewer cost Rockets cash they couldn't spend on other free agents. Plus he gives the Rockets a tradeable contract in the 8 million range.
     
  6. WilliamGCash

    WilliamGCash Member

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    Umm. Yes. That's obvious. That's what happens when you cap the MAX contract somebody can make - most of the players making said max, are making less than what they worth = underpaid.
     
  7. Swish4fives

    Swish4fives Member

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    Leonard is underpaid 134 million?!? Duncan only 27?? Lebron 57?

    not sure about this guys formula
     
  8. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    I said here about 10 years ago the top 15 players are worth more to the NBA than the next 85.
     
  9. HouStu_Rocket

    HouStu_Rocket Member

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    I agree. Lebron is probably the most underpaid player in the history of the NBA lol.
     
  10. bulkatron

    bulkatron Member

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    In regards to Brewer and Bev, board seems to be higher on Brew than Bev but nearly every objective measure on both ends of the court favor Bev; Brew is a replacement level player. Vantage sports had a great piece on why Brew's hustle is so ineffectual on D. Bev at 3/18 or 4/25 is a gem of a signing
     
  11. bulkatron

    bulkatron Member

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    Also the formula, while not laid out in clear terms, looks to be a career arc estimator - I.e. Generating estimates of wins above replacement or similar catch all metrics over the course of a 4 or 5 year contract. Lebron has already begun declining, while Kawhi should be able to maintain current production easily over the next 5 years. Kawhi is an RPM all star and extremely talented two way player - AND he's on a cheaper max deal. So while Lebron has a higher rpm this year, the odds are good that in 2 years his RPM will have declined - despite that his max deal is still a huge value. Kawhi is just giving you that value or more for 5 years at a cheaper rate.

    If you delve a bit the numbers make a lot of sense, including Brew being overpaid - I love brew's hustle and attitude but he's a replacement level player whose hustle often results in gambling or overcommitting and who can't shoot or be effective in the half court. Bev, meanwhile, is a two-way player with his above average 3 point shooting, even if he's only marginally above average on either end.
     

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