among registered voters. [rquoter]Gallup Daily: Race Tied at 44% Registered voters evenly split in their support for Obama versus McCain PRINCETON, NJ -- According to Gallup Poll Daily tracking from July 29-31, John McCain and Barack Obama are now tied at 44% in the preferences of national registered voters. This is not much different from the results reported in Gallup Poll Daily tracking on Thursday, when the two were nearly tied with 45% for Obama and 44% for McCain. However, it is a substantial turnaround from earlier this week when Obama held a statistically significant lead coming off his high-profile trip to Europe, Afghanistan, and the Middle East. Obama and McCain were closely matched in each of the three nights of interviewing included in today's result, with neither candidate ahead by more than three percentage points. This suggests that the recent surge in voter support for Obama has truly subsided. The contrast between Obama's recent advantage over McCain (ranging from six to nine points) and today's result is particularly notable because this is McCain's strongest showing in over a month. The last time Gallup found the race exactly tied was in late June. By contrast, in the weeks just prior to Obama's overseas trip, he had led the race by an average of four points. (To view the complete trend since March 7, click here.) -- Lydia Saad[/rquoter]
Well that was an awfully brief bump from the overseas coronation. It'll probably be like this til the election unless one of them really screws up on the national stage(i.e. horrible debate performance or convention speech).
I consider national polls to be pretty useless, but I'm honestly surprised that McCain's negative attacks have worked so well for him. Then again, I look at electoral maps, and McCain going negative doesn't appear to be helping him too much.
Hillary soundly defeated Obama in the debates....do you think Obama has peaked? Will McCain put Obama in his place and expose his lack of experience during the debates?
No. No. On the polls - I think the significant piece is that Obama broke through his previous lows. We'll see if that signals a trend, but it is significant and may actually signify a real change of some sort as opposed to the random ups and downs.
If McCain doesn't drop the ball, he can destroy Obama in the debates. He needs to hammer him on: 1) Gas prices - This is the #1 issue in the campaign right now and it's a loser for the Dems and Obama. The fact that Pelosi won't even allow a vote on it needs to be mentioned(although circumstances could change by the time the debates roll around). 2) Taxes - Obama wants to raise them. And the windfall profits tax farce that he promoted today is an example of what McCain needs to highlight. That won't produce a single drop of oil and it'll raise energy prices even more. 3) Iraq - Go after his opposition to the surge. True, Obama can say McCain was wrong for supporting the war in the first place, but since we're on the verge of winning, that's no longer as powerful of a counterargument. I think McCain will be a lot more comfortable in a debate-type setting. He's not good with prepared speeches. The key is staying away from trivial stuff like flip-flop accusations or questioning Obama's experience. Leave that to the campaign ads and the surrogates. Use the debate to address policy.
The polls are meaningless for this election cycle because you have so many historically precedents. The fact is most of the polls are biased for McCain because they way they are conducted they assume African Americans and young people will not come out and vote - and you have so many first time voters. Also younger voters are less likely to do polling so it's biased towards older voters who favor McCain more. The end point is that no one really knows right now who is ahead. These polls are more inaccurate than they appear.
Except McCain has a long and vocal history of voting against drilling in ANWR. If he attacks Obama there, Obama can pull out a handful of legitimate and genuine McCain quotes that will make him look silly. He might even be able to call him a flip-flopper, though that is so 2004. <object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/19wRs4xLLpw&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/19wRs4xLLpw&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object> [rquoter] I believe that ANWR is one of the pristine areas of the world, and I have opposed [drilling]. And I also believe that the amount of energy that could be recovered from that area is not that impactful, and I certainly wouldn't want to see another Exxon-Valdez. [/rquoter]
He talks about it all the time. Is it his fault if the press sends one reporter and one photographer to follow him around when hundreds of media members are overseas groveling at Obama's feet? Hell, conservatives like me keep bashing the GOP for not sacking up and standing up for what they claim to believe in. Well they're doing it today in the House despite the lights and mikes being shut off, yet I don't see it on any of the major news sites(CNN, Fox, MSNBC, AP).
CNN's "National Poll of Polls" has Obama ahead 47% to 44% for McCain. Interestingly, it shows Obama ahead now in Florida (46-44), Ohio (46-44), Michigan (46-42), Missouri (48-43), Minnesota (46-44), and Pennsylvania (49-42), with McCain ahead by 2% in Nevada and Colorado. In other words, Obama has a slight lead in states where McCain is supposed to be competitive or where he's supposed to win, with Obama very close in two western states where McCain was expected to do well. Yes, McCain has improved his numbers, but has actually fallen behind in some states he has to win, like Florida, Missouri, and Ohio. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/polling/ The fat lady hasn't even taken the stage, basso. Impeach Bush/Cheney.
If you don't think African Americans are going to come out in higher numbers than they have historically - and thus buck how these polls are classifying likely voters - you are in for a real shock. Just think, all those African Americans who have never voted in an election before who aren't being counted in polls right now because they haven't yet registered or haven't ever voted before.
LOL...So true...the factor of coverage is a liberal slant, no doubt. Completely agree with the 3 points...
Umm, these campaigns do press releases every day. if he wanted to focus on his policies, all his campaign has to do is stop sending press releases about Britney Spears or Paris Hilton. He gets the coverage he gets because that's what his campaign chooses to emphasize. No one was talking about "playing the race card" until the McCain campaign blitzed it on both campaign interviews and press releases. You really think he wanted to be talking about issues? If so, then you're saying that both he and his campaign are extraordinarily stupid.
LOL. Did you just copy & paste some comments from Hilary's supporters during the primaries? Remember when people questioned "no one was talking about inserting race into the primary, until ..."? I believe response from you or FB were something like, "Clinton did play the race card etc etc." Remember when people questioned about Obama's policies and issues? You and FB were like, "characters and leadership style are more important, for policies and issues, you can always find them on obama.com in details."
